By moving twice a process has now started

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Warm welcome for second IRA act of decommissioning

One theory has it that the second act of arms decommissioning by the IRA may have an even deeper significance than the first, in October last year.

On that occasion the IRA moved to prevent a meltdown in the peace process, since the Unionist leader David Trimble was about to pull the plug on the institutions of the Good Friday Agreement, including the Belfast Assembly.

That first move was also taken in the wake of the 11 September attacks in the US, and amid the fallout from the embarrassing arrests of three republicans in Colombia.

It therefore had some of the appearances of an emergency measure. The difference now is that this second act of putting arms and explosives beyond use has not happened against a background of crisis.

There are a number of tactical reasons why the IRA should have moved this month. David Trimble has spoken of confronting republicans unless there was further action on arms. Secondly, the move may help increase the vote for Sinn Fein in the Irish Republic's general elections next month.

These factors help explain the timing, but not why the IRA should shift without the traditional build-up of pressure.

The initial decommissioning went down like a lead balloon in many quarters. Sinn Fein and IRA leaders had to hurry around Ireland justifying the move, with Sinn Fein figures making two national tours and holding internal conferences.

Yesterday Gerry Adams recalled the first decommissioning announcement, saying: "People left the meeting in tears." He added that the move was causing "a great deal of angst for many, many people".

But the underlying sense is that the republican cause is being well compensated by the peace process. Republicans face a unionism which is in disarray, a Republic of Ireland ready to elect more Sinn Fein members and a British government ready to make concessions on the basis that they bind Sinn Fein ever more closely into politics.

Mr Adams was very specific in declaring yesterday: "I have not been involved in any quid pro quo arrangements around this." But at the same time a substantial amount of goodwill plainly exists between Mr Adams and Tony Blair.

By moving on arms twice the IRA has signalled that it regards decommissioning as a process, implying strongly that more will follow.

Republicans will be hoping that the Government will now remove more border watchtowers, demilitarise further and settle the issue of the remaining IRA fugitives.

Beyond that, they will hope that the business of bidding farewell to at least some of their arms will help keep alive the process they value so much.