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Monarchy will be 'on last legs by 2030 once Queen is no longer on the throne'

'No one is saying while the Queen is alive the monarchy should be abolished. After that, it's a free-for-all,' says historian

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Prince George with the Duke and Catherine Duchess of Cambridge and other members of the Royal family on the balcony at Buckingham Palace for Trooping the Colour Rex Features

The British monarchy could be on its "last legs" by 2030, a historian has suggested.

Dr Anna Whitelock, a reader in early modern history at Royal Holloway in London, said support for the monarchy was linked to the Queen and not the institution itself.

Important questions about the relevance of the monarchy in modern society have been constrained out of respect for Elizabeth II's long reign, she said.

"All of those questions about 'What the hell do we want this kind of unelected family (for)? What does that represent in Britain today?', all these profound questions have been held in check because of the Queen," she said.

The author, who is also the director of The London Centre for Public History, suggested that once the Queen is likely no longer on the throne in the next two decades, the British monarchy could be challenged in a way that it never has been before.

Her comments come as Britain's monarch prepares to mark her 90th birthday.

Queen Elizabeth II: Life in pictures

Queen Elizabeth II: Life in pictures

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    Queen Elizabeth II on a walk-about in Portsmouth during her Silver Jubilee tour of Great Britain, 1977

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    The future Britain's Queen Elizabeth II (R) pictured with her younger sister Princess Margaret (L) in 1933

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    The 9-year-old Elizabeth attends an aristocratic wedding with her mother and younger sister. Later in that year with the death of her Grandfather and the Abdication of her Uncle Edward VIII she became first in line to the throne, 1936

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    The coronation of King George VI in 1937, Elizabeth aged 10 became the heir apparent to the throne

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    Elizabeth and her sister arrive at Waterloo station to say goodbye to their parents as they leave to tour Canada. Elizabeth was thought too young to escort her parents on the tour and was described as "tearful" as they departed. She and her parents made the first ever transatlantic telephone call during their time away, 1939

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    The 13-year-old Elizabeth and her sister Margret address children who have been evacuated from the cities on BBC's 'The Chilrens Hour' She said "We are trying to do all we can to help our gallant sailors, soldiers and airmen, and we are trying, too, to bear our share of the danger and sadness of war. We know, every one of us, that in the end all will be well", 1940

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    Just before the end of the war Elizabeth took part in training to become an ATS officer. She is pictured learning to change a tire, 1945

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    The official announcement of Princess Elizabeth and Phillip Mountbatten's engagement. The pairing was incredibly controversial as Prince Phillip had no financial standing and he was foreign born, the prince of Denmark and Greece (though he served Britain in the war and was given British Citizenship), 1947

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    Queen Elizabeth II (in coach) and her husband Prince Philip, Duke of Edinburgh are cheered by the crowd after their wedding ceremony, on 20 November 1947, on their road to Buckingham Palace, London

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    Elizabeth smiles at her first child, a month old Prince Charles. Charles was born on 14 November 1948

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    The couples second child Princess Anne was born in 1950

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    Arriving back in England upon hearing the death of her father King George VI. The Kings health had been in decline for a number of years and Elizabeth had been filling in for him on an official visit to Australia by way of Kenya. As his heir Elizabeth became Queen aged 26

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    Queen Elizabeth's coronation took place on 2 June 1953. It was the first ever coronation to be aired live on television, being one of the most watched events in history with millions gathering around their TV sets to see the new monarch

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    Queen Elizabeth II standing next to her daughter Princess Anne, 1960

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    President Eisenhower (centre) with the British Royal family (L-R) Prince Philip, Princess Anne, HM Queen Elizabeth, Prince Charles and Captain John Eisenhower, at Balmoral Castle, Scotland, 1959

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    Queen Elizabeth II as she turns to smile and talk to an unidentified officer, during the Trooping of the Colour by the First Battalion of the Jamaica Regiment at Up-Park Camp, Kingston, Jamaica, 1966

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    Queen Elizabeth II walking cross country at the North of Scotland Gun Dog Association Open Stake Retreiver Trials in the grounds of Balmoral Castle in 1967

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    Queen Elizabeth II during her visit to the Chelsea Flower Show in London, a regular fixture in the royal calendar, 1971

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    Queen Elizabeth II and the Duke of Edinburgh during their traditional summer break at Balmoral Castle. The highland retreat is one of the Queen's favourite places, each year, she heads off to Scotland for the summer. "It is rather nice to hibernate for a bit when one leads such a moveable life," she once said, 1976

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    Queen Elizabeth II during a walkabout in Muscat while visiting Oman, 1979

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    Queen Elizabeth II with some of her corgis walking the Cross Country course during the second day of the Windsor Horse Trials. The monarch is responsible for introducing a new breed of dog known as the "dorgi" when her corgi Tiny was mated with a dachshund "sausage dog" called Pipkin which belonged to Princess Margaret, 1980

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    (L-R) the Queen Mother, Queen Elizabeth II, Prince William, Prince Harry and the Prince and Princess of Wales after the christening ceremony of Prince Harry, 1984

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    Queen Elizabeth II taking the salute of the Household Guards regiments during the Trooping of the Colour ceremony in London, 1985

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    Diana, Princess of Wales and Queen Elizabeth II as they smile to well-wishers outside Clarence House in London, 1987

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    Queen Elizabeth II, with Chief Instructor, Small Arms Corp LT Col George Harvey, firing the last shot on a standard SA 80 rifle when she attended the centenary of the Army Rifle Association at Bisley, 1993

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    South Africa's President Nelson Mandela greets Queen Elizabeth II as she steps from the royal yacht Britannia in Cape Town at the 1995's official start of the her first visit to the country since 1947

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    Queen Elizabeth II smiles as she visits Bowring Park in St. John's, Newfoundland, on the third day of a 10-day official visit to Canada, 1997

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    Queen accompanied by the Duke of Edinburgh make their way into St. George's Chapel at Windsor for the annual Garter ceremony, 1999

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    Queen Elizabeth II and Pope John Paul II as they meet at the Vatican, 2000

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    Queen Elizabeth II and the Queen Mother leaving church by horse drawn carriage on the Sandringham Estate, Norfolk, 2000

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    Queen Elizabeth rides her horse in the grounds of Windsor Castle, 2002

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    Queen Elizabeth arrives for the world premiere of James Bond movie "Casino Royale" at the Odeon cinema in Leicester Square in London, 2006

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    Queen Elizabeth boards a scheduled train at Kings Cross station in London, 2009

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    Queen Elizabeth II planting a tree at Newmarket Animal Health Trust, during a royal visit which marked her 50th year as the charity's patron, 2009

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    Queen Elizabeth II talking with Pope Benedict XVI during an audience in the Morning Drawing Room at the Palace of Holyroodhouse in Edinburgh during a four day visit by the Pope to the UK, 2010

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    Queen Elizabeth II visiting the Sheikh Zayed Mosque in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, 2010

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    Queen Elizabeth II receives flowers from the crowd during her visit to Federation Square in downtown Melbourne, 2011

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    Queen Elizabeth watches a preview of her Christmas message wearing a pair of 3D glasses, studded with Swarovski crystals in the form of a "Q", at Buckingham Palace in central London, 2012

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    Members of Britain's royal family (front L to R) Prince Philip, Queen Elizabeth and Prince Charles cheer as competitors participate in a sack race at the Braemar Gathering in Braemar, Scotland, 2012

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    Britain's Prince Charles kisses the hand of his mother Queen Elizabeth at the end of her Diamond Jubilee concert in front of Buckingham Palace in London, 2012

    Reuters

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    Catherine, Duchess of Cambridge laughs as Queen Elizabeth gestures during a visit to Vernon Park in Nottingham, 2012

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    Queen Elizabeth II and Prince Philip attend a service for the Order of the British Empire at St Paul's Cathedral in London, 2012

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    Queen Elizabeth II meets young people during an official visit to The Shard building in central London, 2013

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    Actress Angelina Jolie is presented with the Insignia of an Honorary Dame Grand Cross of the Most Distinguished Order of St Michael and St George by Queen Elizabeth II in the 1844 Room at Buckingham Palace, London, 2014

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    Queen Elizabeth II and Prince Philip, Duke of Edinburgh visit the Blood Swept Lands and Seas of Red evolving art installation at the Tower of London, 2014

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    The Queen and the Duke of Edinburgh at the State Opening of Parliament, 2015

    AFP/Getty

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    (L-R) Britain's Princess Anne, Princess Royal, Camilla, Duchess of Cornwall, Prince Charles, Prince of Wales, Prince William, Duke of Cambridge holding his son Prince George of Cambridge, Catherine, Duchess of Cambridge, Queen Elizabeth II, Prince Harry (back), Prince Andrew, Duke of York (back), James, Viscount Severn (front), Princess Beatrice of York (back), Prince Philip, Duke of Edinburgh and Princess Eugenie of York (back) stand on the balcony of Buckingham Palace waiting to view the fly-past during the Queen's Birthday Parade, 'Trooping the Colour,' in London, 2015

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    The Trooping of the Colour is an annual celebration marking the Queen's birthday, 2015

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    Britain's Queen Elizabeth II stands with Kate the Duchess of Cambridge whilst pushing Princess Charlotte in a pram as they leave after attending the Christening of Britain's Princess Charlotte at St. Mary Magdalene Church in Sandringham, 2015

    AP Photo/Matt Dunham, Pool

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    Queen Elizabeth II arrives at the Broadway Theatre in Barking, 2015

    Tim P. Whitby/Getty Images

"I think there'll be a discussion and a debate in a way that there hasn't before," she said. 

"As the older generation who are generally more wedded to the monarchy die out, the question of the future of the monarchy will become even more pressing, and then potentially more critical voices will come to the fore," said Dr Whitelock.

"I would say by 2030 there will be definite louder clamours for the eradication of the monarchy. I can't say that there won't be a monarchy. I would definitely say that the monarchy - its purpose, what it's about, will be questioned and challenged in a way that it hasn't been before.

Queen Elizabeth II: Britain’s longest-reigning monarch

"I don't think it's out of the question that the monarchy would be potentially be on its last legs."

Support for the monarchy during the last quarter of a century of the Queen's reign peaked during the Diamond Jubilee year of 2012 with 80 per cent being in favour of Britain remaining a monarchy.

It dipped to 65 per cent at the time of the Prince of Wales's wedding to the Duchess of Cornwall in 2005 and to 69 per cent in 1993 - the year after the Queen's "annus horribilis".

Queen's properties from throughout her reign

Queen's properties from throughout her reign

  • 1/7 1. Buckingham Palace

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  • 2/7 2. Windsor Castle

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  • 3/7 3. Sandringham Palace

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  • 4/7 4. Balmoral Castle

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  • 5/7 5. Palace of Holyroodhouse

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  • 6/7 6. Hillsborough Castle

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  • 7/7 7. Delnadamph Lodge

    Creative Commons

But throughout the remaining years support averaged at 73 per cent, an analysis of Ipsos MORI research showed.

In 2012, 90 per cent of the British public were also said to be satisfied with the way the Queen was doing her job as monarch, while in the wake of Diana, Princess of Wales's death, this fell to 66 per cent.

Dr Whitelock said the Queen had commanded respect for the duty she has shown during her reign so far.

"Whether you are a monarchist or not, and even fervent republicans, I think, no one is saying whilst the Queen is alive the monarchy should be abolished," the historian said.

"Everybody, given her constancy and given her selflessness, thinks she's a pretty amazing woman, regardless of where you stand on the monarchy debate.

"After that, I think it's going to be a free-for-all."

Dr Whitelock admitted the future prospects of "The Firm" were difficult to predict, saying: "At the moment there is pretty great support for the Queen and the monarchy, but the problem is that is about the Queen and not about the monarchy."

Buckingham Palace declined to comment.

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