Ailing Lib Dems prepare for a snap election

Sir Menzies Campbell has put the Liberal Democrats on alert for a general election next month, amid fears in the party that their support is being squeezed by the battle between Gordon Brown and David Cameron.

They will go into a crucial party conference in eight days' time hoping that a string of new policies on the environment and tax will reverse a steady decline in opinion poll ratings, now at their lowest since Charles Kennedy was ousted as leader 20 months ago.

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Senior party officials and MPs were putting a brave face on the party's 16 per cent poll rating in The Independent's latest poll of polls yesterday, arguing it understated their true support in key marginals. But privately MPs acknowledged the party needed to do more to get a distinctive message across to voters being wooed by Mr Brown and Mr Cameron, who have redoubled their efforts to appeal to the centre ground.

Despite persistent reports of concern about his performance and his lamentable personal opinion poll ratings, there is no mood in the party to stage a coup against Sir Menzies.

There is, however, particular concern at the Tories' determination to focus on the green agenda, which has been earmarked as the centrepiece of the Liberal Democrats' appeal to the electorate. The battle against global warming will be the top issue at the party conference in Brighton, beginning on 15 September.

Sir Menzies appears on the party brochure above the slogan "The Environment, Action Now". Motions on climate change, green taxation, packaging and making businesses more environmentally friendly dominate the timetable.

However, the scale of the political problem the party faces was underlined last month when it published a major environmental policy document, with hundreds of pages of detailed policy argument, only for it to be overshadowed by the leak of just a small part of the Tories' plans for airport taxation.

Professor John Curtice, professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde, said the party faced a "gradual erosion" of support and faced difficulties mapping out a distinctive political message. He said: "The obvious political problem is twofold. What is the distinctive political space the Liberal Democrats are now occupying, given that Iraq is something they cannot exploit in the way they were a couple of years ago?

"They have moved away from being the party most likely to increase taxes and pushed it on to the environment. That has proved to be less distinctive policy space."

He added: "Ming just has not managed to grab the wider public attention. That is obvious."

The party conference will approve plans for a 16p basic rate of tax funded by a radical switch to green taxation and agree ambitious proposals to make Britain carbon neutral by 2050. Nick Clegg, the party's home affairs spokesman, will make the case for a "liberal immigration policy" including an "earned amnesty" for up to 600,000 illegal immigrants.

The party leadership wants to use the week as a "springboard" for a potential general election, which they continue to believe could take place as early as 18 October. Steve Webb, the MP in charge of drafting the election manifesto, has already presented an early outline to the party's ruling policy committee and members of Sir Menzies' frontbench team will hold emergency talks within days to finalise the party's platform.

Lord Rennard, the party's chief executive and polls guru, said yesterday he believed there was a "one in three chance" that the Prime Minister would call a snap October election.

Local party agents met over the summer to discuss campaigning tactics, while party chiefs have ordered constituencies to select candidates so they are ready for an autumn vote.

Despite the gloomy opinion poll ratings, party strategists insist they are in a stronger position than at equivalent points before previous general elections and argue they are bucking the trend in key marginals, where they are doing "incredibly well". They say they are particularly well placed to make a series of gains from Labour in the Midlands and North.

Privately, MPs say they are getting a good response on the doorstep but are cautious about their prospects when the country next votes. One frontbencher said: "The good news is that things aren't terrible. The bad news is that they could better." Another said: "Nobody denies we have a challenge. The opinion polls show we have a challenge. The media coverage shows we have a challenge. We have to take more risks to develop distinctive positions."

Ben Ramm, editor of The Liberal, a magazine for Liberal Democrat activists, produced a devastating assessment of Sir Menzies' leadership. He said he was waiting for an early election so Sir Menzies could be replaced by the "bright new dawn" of Mr Clegg or Chris Huhne, the environment spokesman. He said: "The party is haemorrhaging support. We do not seem to have anything to say about the broken society and key liberal concerns."