Brown bounce not enough to beat Cameron

Gordon Brown secured a bigger bounce from the party conference season than rival leaders, but it is nowhere near enough to save Labour from a crushing defeat at the next general election.

The Independent's latest "poll of polls" shows that the "Brown bounce" is real – but limited so far. In surveys taken just before the party conferences, the Conservatives averaged 46 per cent of the vote, Labour 26 per cent and the Liberal Democrats 16 per cent. In those conducted since, the Tories are down two points to 44 per cent, Labour up four points to 30 per cent and the Liberal Democrats still on 16 per cent.

Mr Brown narrowed the Tory lead to 10 points after Labour's conference in Manchester. But David Cameron fought back during last week's Tory gathering in Birmingham, widening it to 14 points in the most recent polls. The Tories would win an overall majority of 108 on the latest figures.

"Labour is still in considerable electoral trouble," said John Curtice, a professor of politics at Strathclyde University, who compiled the figures. "The Brown bounce is clearly no more than a limited one. These scores do no more than repair the particularly severe damage done to Brown's ratings over the spring and summer. He still trails the 'novice' Cameron badly."