Gordon Brown will today make a final attempt to reconnect with Middle England by announcing a string of "tough love" measures to crack down on alcohol-fuelled crime and problem families who make their neighbours' lives a misery.
In his speech to the Labour conference in Brighton, the Prime Minister will attempt to answer criticism that he is out of touch with ordinary people by saying that he understands their concerns about issues such as crime, antisocial behaviour and immigration.
It is also believed he will bow to pressure and agree to televised debates with the leaders of the two main opposition parties.
In a late switch to a Blairite agenda, he will announce that Britain's 50,000 estimated problem families will be forced to take up intensive one-to-one help. Some of them will be moved off their estates and placed in supported accommodation. The parent of any child found guilty of antisocial behaviour will be automatically subject to a parenting order. If they refuse to take up special help, they will lose their state benefits.
Courts will have to consider imposing a ban on going to pubs and clubs on everyone found guilty of a crime committed while under the influence of alcohol. The so-called "drink Asbos" , which have been trialled in some areas, will be rolled out nationwide from next April. Anyone breaching the drink banning orders will face a fine of up to £2,500.
Mr Brown will tell the conference: "Whenever and wherever there is antisocial behaviour, we will be there to fight it. We will not stand by and see the lives of the lawful majority disrupted by the behaviour of the lawless minority. Because the decent, hard-working majority are getting ever more angry, rightly so, with the minority who will talk about their rights but never accept their responsibilities."
Mr Brown has not focused on crime as much as Tony Blair and opposed some of his measures to combat it – although he did write his predecessor's slogan "tough on crime and tough on the causes of crime".
Mr Brown may use his speech to announce that he will agree to three televised debates between party leaders at the general election – a first for Britain. But further questions about his leadership surfaced yesterday. Alan Simpson, a left-wing Labour MP, said he was a "dead man walking" and suggested he had until Christmas to convince the party to allow him to stay in post for the election.
The main measure to tackle antisocial behaviour will be a big expansion of "family intervention projects". The number of families covered will be doubled to 10,000 next year at a cost of £26m. By 2015, all 50,000 problem families will be included.
Although it costs between £8,000 and £20,000 a year to support a family on the programme, a problem family with three or four children can cost the state between £250,000 and £350,000 because of the burden on police, the justice system, local councils and children's services.
The Prime Minister will also say today that agreement on a new global treaty to combat climate change at the Copenhagen summit in December will provide a short-term economic boost as well as long-term environmental benefits. In Britain, he will predict that 250,000 "green jobs" will be created in the next five years – a faster rate of growth than previously expected after investment in renewable energy. He will announce that "low carbon economic areas" in which universities and industry collaborate will be created in four areas by the end of the year. They have already been set up in the South-west and North-east.
Other ministers will also announce measures today to toughen the Government's approach to crime. Alan Johnson, the Home Secretary, will promise that violent partners will be banned from returning to their homes for up to a fortnight. At present, violent men often return home after arrest, forcing their partner to move out. Jack Straw, the Justice Secretary, will pledge to set up a "national victims service" to provide personalised support for victims.
How the PM can turn it around Seven experts give their view
Lance Price, Former Labour Director of Communications
Brown needs to tear up the rule book for conference speeches. He should say: "If I was popular today I wouldn't have been doing my job properly." Make a virtue out of it. Call Cameron a likeable lightweight and say: "You may not like me, I can't help that. Strength versus smarm. It's your choice."
Andrew Hawkins, chief executive of pollsters ComRes
This must be the speech of his life: He needs to broaden out the "no time for a novice" theme by claiming all the credit for the tentative economic recovery while blaming the Conservatives for hampering it. He can only "win" (ie avert a Tory landslide) by producing a level of fear in the minds of voters not seen since 1992.
Judi James, body language specialist
I don't want to see him take his jacket off, give any of those stuck-on smiles or try to do the things Tony Blair did. He should just wear a good suit and get going. I would also tell him not to have Sarah up on stage with him as it can look like he is trying to hide behind her.
Robert Bean, branding guru
First, he must show his human side. Admit where he got it wrong but insist his motives were well-meaning and "caring" for the less privileged. Second, attack the inexperience of a Cameron and Osborne pairing. The country can't trust "trainees" – especially with the finances.
Neil Sherlock, former speechwriter to Paddy Ashdown
A leader's speech at a party conference needs to appeal to both the delegates in the hall and speak to the country. This is a critical moment for the Prime Minister to silence his doubters in the Labour party and give the public a strong message about why he should stay in No 10. He should acknowledge his responsibility for some of the economic woes but present himself as a less partisan fixer of the problems. But he shouldn't attack Cameron or Clegg, Osborne or Cable, or indeed mention them. At the moment, it is all too remote. He has to play to helping people stay in work, get work, pay their mortgages and improve the chances for their children. This will help people to see him as a man with a plan to restore Britain's economic health.
Lynne Franks, PR consultant
People do not believe he is listening and he needs to regain their trust. He should announce a major campaign of listening to the public before the election. He also needs to take off the mask of the politician and show how his values reflect his policies. Cameron is good at that and Gordon could do worse than watch one of his interviews.
John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde University
Voters regard him as dithering and dull; he has to lay out the direction he wants to take his government.
Read our experts' verdicts on Brown's speech in tomorrow's Independent.