Brown steals a march on prospective Tory candidates

Gordon Brown holds a commanding lead over any possible Conservative leader at the next election, according to an IoS poll conducted last week. Contrary to high expectations generated by his sudden emergence as the front-runner, David Cameron closes the gap on Mr Brown by only one percentage point, compared to either David Davis or Kenneth Clarke.

In a head-to-head match between Mr Brown, the likely Labour leader at the next election, Mr Cameron trails by 18 points, while Mr Davis is 19 points behind. In our poll last month, Mr Clarke was 19 points adrift.

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Respondents were asked how they would vote "if you had to choose" between a Brown-led Labour government and a Tory government led by either Mr Cameron or Mr Davis.

Mr Brown benefits from a substantial "Iraq bounce", attracting support from those who voted Lib-Dem in May and those who stayed at home.

Mr Cameron and Mr Davis are likely to emerge from ballots of Tory MPs this week as the candidates to be put to a vote of 300,000 party members. A YouGov poll of 746 Tories last weekend suggested that Mr Cameron would win by a margin of 66 to 27 per cent.

CommunicateResearch, a member of the British Polling Council, interviewed a random sample of 1,011 adults by telephone on 12 and 13 October. Details at www.communicateresearch.com.