Conservatives take 11-point lead over Labour

The Conservatives have opened an 11-point lead over Labour, enough to give David Cameron an overall Commons majority of 100, according to the latest monthly opinion poll for The Independent.

The survey by CommunicateResearch suggests Mr Cameron's drive to rebrand his party is attracting floating voters and firming up the support of natural Tories. It is the Tories' highest rating from CommunicateResearch since the company began political polling in August 2004.

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The findings will add to the jitters of Labour backbenchers who fear the party is on the slide during Tony Blair's final months and worry that Gordon Brown, his most likely successor, will struggle to turn round such a big deficit. "We are just treading water and wasting time," one Labour MP said last night.

According to the poll, the Tories have hit the electorally crucial 40 per cent mark, gaining 6 percentage points since last month and increasing their lead over Labour from five to 11 points. Labour is unchanged on 29 per cent, while the Liberal Democrats are down four points to 17 per cent and other parties are on 14 per cent (down two points).

The Tory core vote remains the most loyal of the three main parties; 91 per cent of people who identify most with the party say they will vote for it. In contrast, only 76 per cent of Labour "identifiers" intend to back the party, while for the Liberal Democrats the figure is 83 per cent.

All the signs are that Labour will find it much harder than its rivals to get its vote out at the next election - and that Mr Blair's successor will have a tough task in motivating the party's natural supporters.

Some 65 per cent of Tory "identifiers" say they are "absolutely certain" to vote, compared to 53 per cent of natural Liberal Democrats and only 43 per cent of Labour "identifiers". Labour's natural supporters are twice as likely to say they are certain not to vote as their Tory counterparts.

Mr Cameron seems to be making progress in the important battle to win over undecided voters. The Tories have the support of 43 per cent of those who do not know which party they identify with most, while 28 per cent of this group say they will vote Liberal Democrat and just 19 per cent intend to vote Labour.

Some 15 per cent of Labour "identifiers" say they will vote Tory, while only 4 per cent intend to back the Liberal Democrats. Seven per cent of natural Liberal Democrats say they will vote Tory and only 2 per cent Labour.

The Tories, who trailed Labour among women last month, are now well ahead among both sexes. Some 40 per cent of both men and women would vote Tory, while 30 per cent of men and 28 per cent of women back Labour. The Liberal Democrats enjoy much stronger support among women (21 per cent) than men (14 per cent).

CommunicateResearch telephoned 1,001 adults between 23 and 25 February 2007. Data were weighted to take account of expected turnout and party identification for those who declined to say how they would vote. CommunicateResearch is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

Full tables at www.communicateresearch.com