'Datagate' damaged Labour more than donor row, poll shows

The loss of sensitive personal data of 25 million people is damaging Labour more than the row over its secret donations, according to the latest "poll of polls" for The Independent.

It shows that the Conservatives opened a seven-point lead over Labour last month. The Tories are on 39 per cent, Labour 32 per cent and the Liberal Democrats 17 per cent,according to the weighted average of the polls taken in November by Ipsos MORI, Populus, YouGov, ICM and ComRes. Labour's support fell away sharply in the wake of the "Datagate" crisis, leaving the party in almost as bad a position as it was in the final weeks before Tony Blair announced his resignation. But David Cameron should not be celebrating yet, according to John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde University, who compiled the figures. They would leave the Tories 16 seats short of an overall majority if repeated at a general election. The Tories would have 310 seats, Labour 273, the Liberal Democrats 36 and other parties 31.

He said the Tories could not be sure of winning the next election as the Liberal Democrats and other parties appear to be benefiting from Labour's woes. The Tories' rating is down one point on last month, while Labour is down five points and the Liberal Democrats up two points.

"So far, 'Datagate' seems to have been far more damaging to Labour than 'Donorgate'," said Professor Curtice. The two surveys taken after the "Donorgate" scandal emerged put Labour's support at 31 per cent, in line with the previous five polls.

"The full fall-out from 'Donorgate' may well have yet to register, but equally it may be the case that the public are more concerned about the Government losing their records than the intricacies of how the Labour Party and its various leadership campaigns were funded," he said.

Labour's problems extend well beyond a fall in Gordon Brown's popularity. It is again running an unpopular government whose senior ministers are all unpopular or cut little ice with the public. Net approval of the Government's record stands at minus 40 points, compared with minus 25 points at the end of October and minus 22 at the end of September. The latest figure is in line with its satisfaction ratings between the summer of last year and this spring before Mr Brown succeeded Mr Blair.

Mr Brown's reputation for being good in a crisis appears to have suffered because of recent events. The Prime Minister and his Chancellor Alistair Darling now enjoy only a narrow lead over Mr Cameron and the shadow Chancellor George Osborne when people are asked which team they trust most to handle economic problems. In September, the Brown-Darling combination was ahead of the Tory team by a margin of more than two to one.

The decline in Labour's fortunes that occurred in the wake of the postponement of a general election seemed to have bottomed out in the first half of November. But then Labour fell back again after "Datagate".

Evidence that "Donorgate" is taking its toll on Labour emerged in an ICM survey for BBC TV's Newsnight programme last night. It found that twice as many people (57 per cent) think that Mr Brown is tainted by sleaze than Mr Cameron (28 per cent). Asked who was cut out to be Prime Minister, 43 per cent said Mr Brown, 41 per cent Mr Cameron and 8 per cent Vince Cable, the acting Liberal Democrat leader. Asked who was a competent leader, 43 per cent said Mr Cameron, 42 per cent Mr Brown and 14 per cent Mr Cable.

Read Andrew Grice's online column at www.independent.co.uk/todayinpolitics