Ed Miliband to win, says poll

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David Miliband's smooth journey towards the Labour party leadership was dealt a blow last night as one poll suggested his brother was on course to snatch victory by a narrow margin.

A survey of Labour members and trade unionists by YouGov suggested Ed Miliband had a small lead over his older sibling, who has been considered the favourite throughout the four-month leadership campaign.

But the pollsters calculated that once lower-ranking candidates were eliminated and their second choice votes distributed, the younger brother would prevail.

Voting is under way in the race to succeed Gordon Brown with the winner to be announced on the eve of this month's party conference in Manchester.

Although the YouGov poll gave David a 36 per cent to 32 per cent lead on first preferences, YouGov suggested that could be converted to a 51 per cent to 49 per cent win for his brother by the final round.