David Cameron will try to extend the Conservatives’ appeal and transform their image as the “party of the rich” by promising to allow 1.3m families in social housing to buy their homes.
Launching the Tories’ election manifesto, the Prime Minister will claim that they are “the party of working people” as he pledges to extend to housing association tenants Margaret Thatcher’s landmark policy to allow council tenants to buy their homes at huge discounts.
The new giveaway would be funded by forcing local authorities to sell off their most expensive housing when it becomes vacant to raise £4.5bn a year. Although some experts worry that the social housing stock would be reduced by extending the right to buy, the Tories insist they would ensure “one-for-one replacement”.
A Tory government would ensure that councils built 400,000 new homes over five years through a £1bn new fund to unlock brownfield land. Local authorities would submit projects to clean up derelict or contaminated sites.
With the opinion polls neck and neck, the Tories will use their manifesto to reach out beyond their core vote by appealing to low income groups. They may try to outflank Labour on the national minimum wage, which Ed Miliband pledged yesterday to raise to more than £8 an hour by 2019. The Tories have already said they would ensure that workers on the minimum wage would not pay income tax by 2020, by raising the personal tax allowance to £12,500 by then. But they may go further in today’s manifesto.
After criticism that the Tory campaign lacks passion, Mr Cameron will invoke the memory of Margaret Thatcher by saying the right to by extension would mean “a new generation [being] given the security of a home of their own. So this generation of Conservatives can proudly say it: the dream of a property-owning democracy is alive – and we will fulfil it.” He will add: “We are the party of working people, offering you security at every stage of your life.”
In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 11/04/15
In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 11/04/15
1/10 Andrew Hawkins (ComRes)
“Events last week have reinforced my prediction that the Tories will be the largest party. Ukip’s slow puncture may help the Tories most, and Nicola Sturgeon may well fulfil her wish to keep David Cameron in No 10 by reducing Labour’s Scottish MPs to numbers that could fit in a stretch limo.”
2/10 Joe Twyman (YouGov)
“The national picture remains largely unchanged, but YouGov’s Scotland polling shows the SNP at an all-time high. Only 44 per cent of Labour supporters felt Jim Murphy performed best in the first Scottish leaders’ debate.”
3/10 Ben Page (Ipsos MORI)
“I need to see a more decisive shift in the polls to think that Labour have definitely moved ahead of the Conservatives. There has been more good news for Labour than the Conservatives, with Ed Miliband’s personal ratings improving. Still, a hung parliament remains the most likely option.”
4/10 Rick Nye (Populus)
5/10 Nick Moon (GfK)
“I haven’t changed my broad view that the Tories will be the largest party, but Labour is likely to form a minority government. Last week’s projection (Con 280, Lab 273) looks pretty likely to me. The risk for Labour was that, as decision time looms, voters might take ahold of nurse, but that may be mitigated by Miliband’s showing in the debates.”
6/10 Damian Lyons Lowe (Survation)
“Unchanged, except for an SNP uptick at Labour’s expense. The SNP’s surge in Survation’s polling continues unabated. Nicola Sturgeon scored well in our debate polling.”
7/10 Michelle Harrison (TNS)
“Despite all the sound, fury and bluster, there has been no game-changer. If anything, it’s become even tougher for the major parties, with signs of a softening in Conservative support and continued evidence that the SNP will inflict major damage on Labour.”
8/10 James Endersby (Opinium Research)
“Our latest polling figures, published today, show movement back towards the Conservatives (a two-point Tory lead). My prediction last week of a shaky sway back in favour of the Tories on election day holds fast; and with a hung parliament, who on earth knows who’ll be able to form a government?”
9/10 Martin Boon (ICM)
“At the equivalent point before the 2010 election, our poll suggested 37 per cent for the Tories and 31 per cent for Labour, which more or less nailed the actual result. I think that campaigns mostly reinforce perceptions rather than change minds.”
10/10 Lord Ashcroft (Lord Ashcroft Polls)
He refuses to make predictions. “My polls are snapshots, not predictions.”
Under the existing scheme, people who have been council tenants for more than five years can buy their home. Tenants in houses get a 35 per cent discount, increasing by 1 per cent for every extra year they have been a public sector tenant. Tenants in flats get a 50 per cent discount, rising by 2 per cent every year. Discounts for houses and flats are currently capped at the lower of 70 per cent or £102,700 in London and £77,000 in the rest of England.
About 800,000 housing association tenants have a limited “right to acquire” but the maximum discounts is between £9,000 to £16,000, so most cannot afford to buy and sales are low. Under the Tory plan, they would get the full discount.
Local authorities would be ordered to sell off expensive properties ranking among the most expensive third of all homes of that type in their area - including private housing --and replace them with new affordable housing. But this would happen only as they fall vacant and nobody would be forced to move. More than 210,000 local authority properties meet these criteria --5.2 per cent of all affordable housing in England. About 15,000 homes would be sold each year.
Ruth Davison, director of policy and external affairs at the National Housing Federation, said last night: “We fully support the aspiration of home ownership, but extending right to buy to housing associations is the wrong solution to our housing crisis. Following 40 years of successive governments’ failure to build the homes the country needs, soaring rents and house prices and the biggest baby boom since the 1950s, ensuring that there enough homes today and tomorrow must be our nation’s top priority.”
She added: “These are people already living in good secure homes on some of the country’s cheapest rents. It won’t help the millions of people in private rented homes who are desperate to buy but have no hope of doing so, nor the three million adult children living with their parents because they can’t afford to rent or buy. To use their taxes to gift as much as £100,000 to someone already living in a good quality home is deeply unfair.”
The Independent has got together with May2015.com to produce a poll of polls that produces the most up-to-date data in as close to real time as possible.
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