General Election 2015: How whatever the result, many MPs will simply be swapping the green benches for red ones

And forget about reforming the House of Lords - after the failure to reform it in the last Parliament no party is keen to give it another try any time soon

If peers sitting in the House of Lords reject the Chancellor's tax credits cuts, a rarely-used ‘fatal motion’ could be tabled to push through the vote (Getty)

This may be one of the most unpredictable general elections in a generation but of one thing we can be certain: Whatever the result dozens of MPs won’t be leaving Parliament at all at this election – they’ll simply be swapping the green benches for red ones.

Despite the fact that the House of Lords is already packed to the rafters with old politicians of all persuasions the next few months will see large numbers of ex MPs dressed up in ermine as they either retire or get given a consolation prize for being kicked out by the electorate.

Among the 90 odd MPs retiring today Gordon Brown will be top of the queue to be elevated to the Lords should he so wish it. But, like Tony Blair and Sir John Major before him he may decide that he, for the time being at least, he will remain a commoner.

But there will be no shortage of others lobbying to be ennobled. Francis Maude, the outgoing Cabinet Office minister has already made clear that he would like to carry on his work in politics in the Lords and will be at the front of the queue of new Conservative peers.

Stephen Dorrell, the former Health Secretary and chairman of the Health Select Committee would also be near the top of the Tory list as would William Hague, Sir George Young and David Willetts. Before he was caught out by a Telegraph sting Sir Malcolm Rifkind would certainly also have been ennobled if he had decided to stand down as an MP but now he will have to wait for a ‘decent’ length of time for the storm to die down.

Labour too has significant numbers of ex-MPs who could be in line for a peerage. Former cabinet ministers David Blunkett, Alistair Darling, Hazel Blears and Frank Dobson will all be on the list – as would Jack Straw be if he hadn’t also fallen into the same trap as Sir Malcolm.

On the Lib Dem side Sir Alan Beith and Sir Menzies Campbell have both had long and distinguished Commons careers and will certainly get a peerage if they want one.

After the failure of the Coalition to reform the Lords in the last Parliament no party is keen to give it another try any time soon. (Getty)

And then there are the MPs who may not have wanted a peerage yesterday – but would love one today if they lose their seats.

At the time of writing this list has yet to be written but could well include Danny Alexander, his Labour namesake Douglas Alexander and Tories such as Esther McVey, Anna Soubry and David Mundell. Nigel Farage, if he fails to take Thanet South, might also want a political berth that is unelected.

All these new peers will inevitably make the already unwieldy second chamber even more unwieldy. Since 2000 the number of new peers created has outstripped the number of peers retiring by 183. The size of the current chamber of sitting peers currently stands just shy of 800 and will certainly be significantly larger as a result of this election.

All this makes the case for Lords reform even more pressing – but not any more likely. After the failure of the Coalition to reform the Lords in the last Parliament no party is keen to give it another try any time soon.

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