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General Election 2015: Labour faces Scottish wipe-out as Miliband heads north to try and stem the tide

Latest survey had the SNP on a record 49%, up three, with Labour trailing on 25%, down four

Friday 10 April 2015 15:16 BST

Ed Miliband and Jim Murphy, the Scottish Labour leader (Getty Images)

Labour’s nightmare in Scotland deepened last night as the SNP widened its lead by a further seven points.

Ed Miliband is to visit Scotland for the first time in the election campaign today amid the strongest indicator yet that that Jim Murphy’s party is facing a wipe-out on 7 May.

The latest YouGov/Times survey had the SNP on a record 49%, up three, with Labour trailing on 25%, down four. The Conservatives were on 18% and Liberal Democrats on 4%.

The polls’ findings mean the nationalists’ lead over Labour has jumped by a net seven points since YouGov’s last poll – nearly twice the Liberal Democrats’ entire vote share

The pollster confirmed this morning that the figures represented an all-time high for the SNP and an all-time low for Labour in Scotland.

According to the website Electoral Calculus, if replicated at a general election as a uniform swing, the SNP would win 50 of the 59 seats in Scotland, with Scottish Labour left with a rump 9 MPs. The Liberals and Conservatives would both lose all their seats.

The polling, which comes as Labour makes progress at the UK level, will cause despair in the party’s Scottish campaign HQ – where some had hoped the SNP’s lead might be a temporary effect of the independence referendum.

Last night Mr Miliband dampened speculation on an SNP-Labour deal in the event of a hung parliament, telling ITV1’s The Agenda programme that it was “up to other parties how they vote on the Queen’s Speech”. Mr Miliband had already last month ruled out a formal coalition with the SNP.

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 04/04/15

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1/10In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 04/04/15

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 04/04/15

Andrew Hawkins (ComRes)

“My position has moved: no party can win a majority now. I have also shifted in favour of the Conservatives winning more seats than Labour. That, however, assumes that the current Tory momentum is maintained and that they don’t do anything daft or careless between now and polling day. But the underlying pattern is distinctly in their favour.” (In January he predicted Labour would be the largest party, possibly with a small majority.)

Andrew Hawkins

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 04/04/15

Joe Twyman (YouGov)

“Probably: a ‘well hung parliament’. Possibly: Conservatives winning most votes and seats, thanks, in part, to SNP gains at Labour’s expense. Speculation: Conservatives unable to form another coalition, not having enough seats with just the Lib Dems, but Labour better placed with SNP and Lib Dems – albeit informally.” (In January Twyman said: “Gun to my head? Labour minority government.”)

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 04/04/15

Ben Page (Ipsos MORI)

“Stuck in ‘too close to call’ mode still, made harder by the way votes translate into seats in Parliament. If the parties remain neck and neck, Labour might just end up with more seats, but not a majority. We still have weeks of campaign to go and no clear picture for the marginals, where the polling that is being done suggests a lot of local variations that have plenty of potential to surprise us in May.” (Last time Page said it was a “mug’s game” to make predictions four months before an election.)

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 04/04/15

Rick Nye (Populus)

“Since January, the Conservatives have clearly improved on the polls relative to Labour to the point where I’d expect the Conservatives to win the most seats as well as the most votes 7 May. What’s less clear is whether the Conservatives would be able to form a government. (In January Nye expected a hung parliament in which Labour would win most seats but not necessarily most votes.)

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 04/04/15

Nick Moon (GfK)

“Something would need to change dramatically for there to be any chance of a one-party majority government. My guess: the Tories will be largest party, but some way short of forming even a two-party coalition. A Labour minority government seems most likely, but I won’t be putting money on it.” (Prediction unchanged since January.)

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 04/04/15

Damian Lyons Lowe (Survation)

“On Survation’s public polling, Ed Miliband remains the person most likely to form the next government. However, he’s far from the workable majority figure required [321]. Friday 8 May will remain a day of deals and discussions with other parties to form the next government.” (In January he expected Labour to be the largest party in a hung parliament, by 40-50 seats over the Conservatives.)

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 04/04/15

Michelle Harrison (TNS)

“It’s less a case of who wins but who can scrape over the line. Labour polls better on the NHS; the Tories poll better on the economy. Can any claim additional territory from the other over the remaining weeks? Probably not. But our polls show that the public thinks the Tories will be the largest party. In the absence of a firm lead, I’ll go with the wisdom of crowds.”

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 04/04/15

James Endersby (Opinium Research)

“Despite the recent weekly statistical ties, we’ve witnessed the faint whispers of movement in the air and a slow, unsteady and shaky sway towards the Tories. How this shift plays out over the coming weeks obviously depends on a huge number of factors. My call, if this holds fast and momentum gathers: Conservatives 288, Labour 267, SNP 45, Lib Dems 24, Plaid Cymru 3, Ukip 3, Greens 2.” (In January he put Labour on 320 seats.)

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 04/04/15

Martin Boon (ICM)

“I’m tempted to say: how should I know? I’m just a pollster. But I feel that Miliband may just have raised himself from the grave, so I’ll add a couple to where I had them before. Everyone else largely becalmed although, I see the Greens disappearing from view and Ukip sliding a touch. Tories 34 per cent, Lab 32 per cent, Lib Dems 14 per cent, Ukip 12 per cent. I don’t trust any academic model that translates vote shares into seats, so a seat projection from this is a pure and simple guess, which is Labour to be touching 300 seats with the Tories just behind.” (In January Boon predicted Labour on 290 seats.)

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 04/04/15

Lord Ashcroft (Lord Ashcroft Polls)

He refuses to make predictions. “My polls are snapshots, not predictions.”

Rex

In an interview with the Daily Record this morning he also ruled out countenancing a second independence referendum.

Responding to a poll a Scottish Labour Spokesperson said: “If this poll is repeated on election day the SNP will be delighted, but David Cameron will be ecstatic. The Tories can't win in Scotland so need to rely on the SNP taking seats from Labour.

“A vote for anyone other than Labour risks the Tories being the largest party across the UK and David Cameron sneaking back into Downing Street. That would be a disaster for Scotland, but it's what will happen if people vote SNP.”

The Independent has got together with May2015.com to produce a poll of polls that produces the most up-to-date data in as close to real time as is possible.

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All data, polls and graphics are courtesy of May2015.com. Click through for daily analysis, in-depth features and all the data you need. (All historical data used is provided by UK Polling Report)

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