General Election 2015: Poll of pollsters has Labour edging up as Tories lose ground

Top polling companies for their predictions for 7 May

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Indy Politics

The Independent on Sunday asked the bosses of the 10 top polling companies for their predictions.

On average, they thought the race tightened slightly last week, with the Conservatives losing ground. We combined their predictions, where they made any, to project the House of Commons that will be elected on 7 May: Conservative 277 (-3 from last week), Labour 274 (+1), SNP 45 (no change), Liberal Democrat 26 (+1), Ukip 5 (+1), Plaid Cymru 3, Green 1, Respect 1 (all unchanged).

That would mean a hung parliament, with David Cameron six short of being able to stay on as PM.



Martin Boon ICM

“At the equivalent point before the 2010 election, our poll suggested 37 per cent for the Tories and 31 per cent for Labour, which more or less nailed the actual result. I think that campaigns mostly reinforce perceptions rather than change minds.”

James Endersby, Opinium “Our latest polling figures show movement back towards the Conservatives (a two-point Tory lead). My prediction last week of a shaky sway back in favour of the Tories on election day holds fast; and with a hung parliament, who on earth knows who’ll be able to form a government?”

Michelle Harrison TNS

“Despite all the sound, fury and bluster, there has been no game-changer. If anything, it’s become even tougher for the major parties, with signs of a softening in Conservative support and continued evidence that the SNP will inflict major damage on Labour.”


Andrew Hawkins ComRes

“Events last week have reinforced my prediction that the Tories will be the largest party. Ukip’s slow puncture may help the Tories most, and Nicola Sturgeon may well fulfil her wish to keep David Cameron in No 10 by reducing Labour’s Scottish MPs to numbers that could fit in a stretch limo.”

Damian Lyons Lowe Survation “Unchanged, except for an SNP uptick at Labour’s expense. The SNP’s surge in Survation’s polling continues unabated. Nicola Sturgeon scored well in our debate polling.”

Nick Moon GfK

“I haven’t changed my broad view that the Tories will be the largest party, but Labour is likely to form a minority government. Last week’s projection (Con 280, Lab 273) looks pretty likely to me. The risk for Labour was that, as decision time looms, voters might take ahold of nurse, but that may be mitigated by Miliband’s showing in the debates.”

Rick Nye Populus

“No change.”

Ben Page Ipsos MORI

“I need to see a more decisive shift in the polls to think that Labour have definitely moved ahead of the Conservatives. There has been more good news for Labour than the Conservatives, with Ed Miliband’s personal ratings improving. Still, a hung parliament remains the most likely option.”

Joe Twyman YouGov

“The national picture remains largely unchanged, but YouGov’s Scotland polling shows the SNP at an all-time high. Only 44 per cent of Labour supporters felt Jim Murphy performed best in the first Scottish leaders’ debate.”

The Independent has got together with to produce a poll of polls that produces the most up-to-date data in as close to real time as is possible.

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