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General Election 2015: Will Danny Alexander weather the storm in new battle for Culloden?

The nationalists may want revenge, but Westminster man Danny Alexander still has devoted Scots followers who will give him their vote

Saturday 18 April 2015 11:09 BST

Danny Alexander faces a tough fight to return to parliament (PA)

I was, they told me, to attach no significance to the fact that Team Danny Alexander was promising to take me canvassing at Culloden.

Was this meant to show that forces loyal to London, in the shape of Danny, Chief Secretary to the Treasury, were again going to crush a force of insurgent Scottish nationalists?

Or were we about to witness the revenge of the nationalist Highlanders? Would SNP challenger Drew Hendry avenge the fallen warriors of 1746, decapitating the Union-supporting Lib Dem minister by removing him from his source of power, the seat of Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey?

None of the above, insisted Graeme Littlejohn, the head of Mr Alexander’s campaign office. “We just planned to go to Culloden today.” But he was grinning broadly, in an office displaying signs of a mischievous sense of humour. On the wall, beside a picture of Mr Alexander, was a poster advertising Ginger Rodent, the beer brewed in honour of the insult coined by Labour’s Harriet Harman.

Mr Littlejohn also revealed that his candidate had recently helped launch Beaker, a cocktail referencing his unflattering, Muppet-based nickname. Beaker, the drink, was apparently proving popular in Inverness. But Beaker the man? Not so much, it seemed – or at least not on the evidence of the tour of city-centre houses arranged by Mr Hendry of the SNP.

Inside the home of Elizabeth Mackay, it felt easy to believe a poll which in February had put Mr Hendry 29 points ahead, more than enough to destroy Mr Alexander’s once-healthy 8,765 majority. Who would Mrs Mackay, her niece Karen Kean, 34, and her husband, Allan Kean, 33, vote for? “Not Lib Dem!” they chorused.

“Danny Alexander’s not thinking about us in the Highlands any more,” said Mrs Mackay, a former housekeeper. Mr Hendry had sympathised with her about the high cost of fuel. “He’s very nice,” said Mrs Mackay. “I think I’m voting for him.”

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 04/04/15

Show all 10

1/10In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 04/04/15

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 04/04/15

Andrew Hawkins (ComRes)

“My position has moved: no party can win a majority now. I have also shifted in favour of the Conservatives winning more seats than Labour. That, however, assumes that the current Tory momentum is maintained and that they don’t do anything daft or careless between now and polling day. But the underlying pattern is distinctly in their favour.” (In January he predicted Labour would be the largest party, possibly with a small majority.)

Andrew Hawkins

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 04/04/15

Joe Twyman (YouGov)

“Probably: a ‘well hung parliament’. Possibly: Conservatives winning most votes and seats, thanks, in part, to SNP gains at Labour’s expense. Speculation: Conservatives unable to form another coalition, not having enough seats with just the Lib Dems, but Labour better placed with SNP and Lib Dems – albeit informally.” (In January Twyman said: “Gun to my head? Labour minority government.”)

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 04/04/15

Ben Page (Ipsos MORI)

“Stuck in ‘too close to call’ mode still, made harder by the way votes translate into seats in Parliament. If the parties remain neck and neck, Labour might just end up with more seats, but not a majority. We still have weeks of campaign to go and no clear picture for the marginals, where the polling that is being done suggests a lot of local variations that have plenty of potential to surprise us in May.” (Last time Page said it was a “mug’s game” to make predictions four months before an election.)

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 04/04/15

Rick Nye (Populus)

“Since January, the Conservatives have clearly improved on the polls relative to Labour to the point where I’d expect the Conservatives to win the most seats as well as the most votes 7 May. What’s less clear is whether the Conservatives would be able to form a government. (In January Nye expected a hung parliament in which Labour would win most seats but not necessarily most votes.)

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 04/04/15

Nick Moon (GfK)

“Something would need to change dramatically for there to be any chance of a one-party majority government. My guess: the Tories will be largest party, but some way short of forming even a two-party coalition. A Labour minority government seems most likely, but I won’t be putting money on it.” (Prediction unchanged since January.)

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 04/04/15

Damian Lyons Lowe (Survation)

“On Survation’s public polling, Ed Miliband remains the person most likely to form the next government. However, he’s far from the workable majority figure required [321]. Friday 8 May will remain a day of deals and discussions with other parties to form the next government.” (In January he expected Labour to be the largest party in a hung parliament, by 40-50 seats over the Conservatives.)

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 04/04/15

Michelle Harrison (TNS)

“It’s less a case of who wins but who can scrape over the line. Labour polls better on the NHS; the Tories poll better on the economy. Can any claim additional territory from the other over the remaining weeks? Probably not. But our polls show that the public thinks the Tories will be the largest party. In the absence of a firm lead, I’ll go with the wisdom of crowds.”

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 04/04/15

James Endersby (Opinium Research)

“Despite the recent weekly statistical ties, we’ve witnessed the faint whispers of movement in the air and a slow, unsteady and shaky sway towards the Tories. How this shift plays out over the coming weeks obviously depends on a huge number of factors. My call, if this holds fast and momentum gathers: Conservatives 288, Labour 267, SNP 45, Lib Dems 24, Plaid Cymru 3, Ukip 3, Greens 2.” (In January he put Labour on 320 seats.)

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 04/04/15

Martin Boon (ICM)

“I’m tempted to say: how should I know? I’m just a pollster. But I feel that Miliband may just have raised himself from the grave, so I’ll add a couple to where I had them before. Everyone else largely becalmed although, I see the Greens disappearing from view and Ukip sliding a touch. Tories 34 per cent, Lab 32 per cent, Lib Dems 14 per cent, Ukip 12 per cent. I don’t trust any academic model that translates vote shares into seats, so a seat projection from this is a pure and simple guess, which is Labour to be touching 300 seats with the Tories just behind.” (In January Boon predicted Labour on 290 seats.)

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 04/04/15

Lord Ashcroft (Lord Ashcroft Polls)

He refuses to make predictions. “My polls are snapshots, not predictions.”

Rex

The more doors you knocked at, the more you felt like agreeing with commentators who have dismissed Mr Alexander as “electoral toast”. Even voters who liked him delivered their compliments with more than a little backhand. Kati Ranicar, 33, had met the Lib Dem incumbent through her work as a creative manager at Inverness’s Eden Court Theatre. “I don’t mind him,” she said. “I don’t have the hatred for him that a lot of people seem to have.”

Mr Hendry, 50, leader of the Highland Council, said: “We are getting people who opposed independence, former Lib Dems, people of all parties and none. Because the Lib Dems propped up the Tory Government to impose policies that no one round here likes, I absolutely believe we will win.”

But wasn’t it time to discover Mr Alexander’s fate at Culloden where up to 2,000 Highlanders had been slain in the 18th-century battle? One thing swiftly became obvious: whatever Highlanders at Culloden thought about Scottish nationalism in 1746, they weren’t keen on it now.

“No! I am not voting SNP!” snapped Heather McCracken, 66, the moment she spotted the canvassers. The retired teacher’s attitude softened when she realised they were working for Mr Alexander: “I will quite probably be voting for him. I think he has done some good for this area.”

Her views were echoed constantly. This area, like much of the constituency, was fairly rural, small-c conservative. And here they seemed to think Mr Alexander had used his clout to help them – they cited things like working to raise the income tax threshold to £10,000, helping many low-paid Highlands workers.

Unlike the battle of Culloden, this will be no rout. The Lib Dem campaigners still dare think that they could be celebrating a Danny Alexander victory. Though not necessarily with a pint of Ginger Rodent.

Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey

Fourth largest constituency in the UK in terms of area, covering 1,912 square miles, taking in Loch Ness and the Cairngorms National Park, where Mr Alexander served as head of communications before becoming an MP.

Number of voters: 79,000

Held by: Danny Alexander, since 2005.

Challengers: polls suggest Drew Hendry of the SNP is the strongest challenger, but Alexander also faces competition from Tory Edward Mountain, Labour’s Mike Robb, Les Durance of Ukip, and the Green’s Isla O’Reilly.

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