Hain fears ousting by 'ragbag coalition'

Opinion polls suggest Labour will still be the largest party in Wales after Thursday's elections but will no longer have a large enough majority to run the Cardiff Bay assembly without the support of either the Liberal Democrats or Plaid Cymru.

An intriguing third option which is being floated would see Labour ousted by a "rainbow coalition" of Plaid Cymru, the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats.

That is Labour's nightmare scenario, since it would give the Tories a share of power, allowing David Cameron to say he was on course for Downing Street and that his party's revival is not just limited to the south of England.

At present, Labour has 29 seats, Plaid Cymru 12, the Tories 11, the Liberal Democrats six and there are two independents. Forty members are elected in constituencies by the first-past-the-post system, with another 20 "regional list" seats chosen by proportional representation. Although the assembly has fewer powers than its big brother in Edinburgh, it will get more after the elections, enabling it to pass laws in areas such as health, social services, agriculture, the environment, transport and housing if Westminster agrees.

Labour's canvassing returns show that the party could lose six seats to the Tories . "There is a real risk of the Tories coming to power," said Peter Hain, the Welsh Secretary.

He said that the Tories, Liberal Democrats and Plaid Cymru had joined forces on 400 occasions to vote against Labour in the assembly and would do so again if Labour loses its wafer-thin grip on power.

"We have had a de facto coalition between the three parties in opposition. It would be entirely logical for that to slip over into government," said Mr Hain. "It would mean the Tories were back in power for the first time in 10 years. It would be a very unstable ragbag coalition with no real agreement on policy."

Plaid Cymru, which claims the Labour vote is in "meltdown", has traditionally performed better in "Welsh" than general elections. Its manifesto includes a "national living wage" higher than the minimum wage in the rest of the UK. Although it would not serve under a Tory First Minister, it is ready for talks with all the other parties when Thursday's results are known.