Labour in 2010: 'It looks as though it's got to be Gordon Brown'

On the face of it, it has got to be Gordon. Gordon Brown is still streets ahead in the future Labour leadership race. But therein lies the problem for the man who thought he was the front-runner to succeed John Smith on his death 10 years ago next month, and found himself overtaken by his younger stablemate Tony Blair.

After Michael Howard's coronation as Tory leader last November, there would almost certainly be pressure for Mr Brown to be elected unopposed as Mr Blair's natural successor. But Mr Brown cannot take a shoo-in for granted.

If the Chancellor still has the strong economic record he possesses today, his chances of taking over without a leadership election would be enhanced. But if the economy has hit choppy waters, there would be greater pressure for a contest.

The betting in Labour circles is that there would be a formal election. The real question is whether it would be a real contest involving cabinet heavyweights or a token challenge by a left-winger - Ken Livingstone, perhaps.

Mr Brown has been pretty adept at keeping a tiny shaft of light between him and Mr Blair on controversial issues - Iraq, foundation hospitals and university top-up fees - without being accused of downright disloyalty. That could help him. "Vote Gordon to get the best bits of New Labour without the bad bits of Blair," would be the Chancellor's pitch.

The assumption among Labour MPs is that Mr Blair would back Mr Brown. That is probably right today but is not a given. During bouts of tension between the Prime Minister and Chancellor, ultra-Blarities have floated the possibility that their man was casting around for another successor and at various points have talked up David Blunkett, Alan Milburn, Charles Clarke and John Reid.

After Blair-Brown relations sunk to their nadir last autumn, the two men have patched things up, sparking speculation of a "new deal" under which the Prime Minister will stand down and endorse the Chancellor one or two years after the next general election. In return, Mr Brown will loyally bide his time until then.

But Mr Blair's backing would not prevent a contest. Who, then, would be Mr Brown's most likely rivals? The most obvious one is Mr Clarke, the Secretary of State for Education, a bruiser who declared with typical honesty last month that nobody had an automatic right to the succession. No prizes for guessing who he had in mind. Mr Clarke is no friend of the Chancellor and is big and bold enough to take him on.

Mr Reid, the Secretary of State for Health, is not usually listed in the future leadership stakes but is a dark horse on whom many Labour MPs would have a flutter. A former Communist, he is rare among ministers in being able to provide a convincing "narrative" for New Labour and insists Mr Blair is merely updating the party's traditional principles.

His predecessor at the Department of Health, Mr Milburn, appeared to take himself out of the frame when he resigned from the Cabinet last summer to spend more time with his family. Although the reason he gave was real, he has maintained a high profile as a backbencher and Labour MPs do not rule out him returning to frontline politics. Although he says he has no intention to do so, a leadership contest might tempt him.

Friends of Jack Straw, the Foreign Secretary and a great survivor in the political game, sometimes talk him up as an outside bet. But he has formed a close alliance with Mr Brown, notably on Europe, and would almost certainly endorse him. In return, he could be rewarded with the post of Deputy Prime Minister. John Prescott, another likely Brown backer, will probably leave that post whenever Mr Blair stands down.

Who else might run? You cannot rule out Peter Hain, the ambitious Leader of the Commons, who, as a former trade union official, has close links with the unions. Remember them? They will matter when the leadership comes around, as they have a third of the votes in Labour's electoral college, the same share as Labour MPs and party members.

There are some young pretenders in Labour's ranks but they will probably lack the experience to enter the race when Mr Blair departs. Douglas Alexander, David Miliband and Ed Balls (who is likely to enter Parliament at the next election) will have to wait until a future contest.

It looks as though it has got to be Gordon. But winning the leadership might prove to be the easy bit. His problem would be how to re-energise a government that has already been in power for eight or nine years and prevent it being turfed out at the next election.