Late swing threatens to deprive SNP of poll victory

Labour's organisers in Scotland think they have won a last-minute victory over the Scottish Nationalists in a battle for control of the Scottish Parliament. Results from postal voting in key constituencies have reinforced opinion-poll evidence of a swing to Labour.

In Ochil, a seat currently held by the SNP, Labour has taken 457 out of 981 votes cast by post. The SNP has 322, the Tories 127 and the Liberal Democrats 75. In another key marginal, Strathkelvin and Bearsden, Labour's David Whitton,a former aide to the man who created the Scottish Parliament, the late Donald Dewar, has picked up 202 postal votes out of about 700. The other main candidates have between 100 and 150. The seat is held by an independent, Jean Turner.

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Labour also has the highest number of postal votes in Glasgow Kelvin, a Labour seat on the SNP target list.

One of the leading organisers of Labour's Scottish campaign privately forecast that the party will emerge from today's poll with 44 seats to the SNP's 43, even though the SNP is likely to pick up more votes in Scotland than Labour. He claimed that the SNP's vote is heavily concentrated, and that "where they win, they'll win big, and everywhere else they'll lose".

The SNP leader, Alex Salmond, made a helicopter tour of marginal constituencies yesterday. He said the latest polls still indicated that the SNP was on course for the best electoral result in its 70-year history.

John Reid, the Home Secretary, was campaigning in Glasgow with Scotland's First Minister, Jack McConnell. Mr Reid observed: "Not far from here is someone who takes Scotland for granted - someone surveying Scotland from an aloof position in a display not of leadership but of arrogance."

Nicol Stephen, the Liberal Democrat leader, is expected to emerge as Scotland's kingmaker with enough members to form a majority coalition with Mr Salmond or Mr McConnell.

The Liberal Democrats have been in coalition with Labour, but agree with the SNP on a flagship policy to abolish the council tax and replace it with a Scottish income tax.