Plan to oust Brown as MPs claim he has lost support

Backbench Labour critics of Gordon Brown plan to try to oust him by declaring he has lost the support of his MPs if he fails to revive his party's general election prospects.

But as the Prime Minister enters a crucial week in his increasingly embattled premiership, cabinet ministers are warning MPs not to foment a leadership crisis if Labour loses the parliamentary by-election in Crewe and Nantwich. They warn that blaming a defeat on Mr Brown will only stall the party's fightback.

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Labour is bracing itself for a Tory victory in Crewe, even though it had a 7,078 majority at the 2005 general election. Several Labour MPs believe the party's campaign, in which it has portrayed the Tory candidate Edward Timpson as a "toff", has backfired and want this line of attack halted.

If Mr Brown fails to halt Labour's slide, some MPs want the former cabinet minister Charles Clarke to challenge him for the party leadership by running as a "stalking horse".

Senior Labour figures describe such a move as a "kamikaze mission". They say cabinet ministers would rally behind Mr Brown and he would not resign to enter a leadership election as his backbench critics hope. They believe Mr Brown would defeat Mr Clarke in similar fashion to John Major's victory over John Redwood in a Tory leadership contest in 1995.

Instead, a majority of the Brown critics appears to favour forcing him out of Downing Street through a "tidal wave" of statements from MPs that he has lost their confidence because the public have turned against him.

"It would be better to let events take their course rather than [to] try to create events," one Labour MP said yesterday. "If it's a choice between Gordon Brown and Charles Clarke to be Prime Minister, Gordon would win. If it happens, the best option would be an avalanche or a tidal wave. No leader could withstand that."

Mr Clarke has said there is "absolutely no foundation" in speculation that he might mount a challenge to Mr Brown. But critics of the Prime Minister are taking soundings about how they could dislodge him if he failed to win back public support. "The public will decide this," a former Labour minister said. The private discussions show the depth of concern in the party about Mr Brown's prospects of winning a general election.

But cabinet ministers warned that an attempt to push Mr Brown out would not revive Labour's fortunes. "It would be madness," one minister said. "What message would it send to the voters to kick out someone who was elected unopposed 11 months ago?"

A ComRes survey for The Independent on Sunday found that 57 per cent of voters believed Labour needed to change its leader to have a chance of winning the next election, while 36 per cent do not. Some 43 per cent of Labour supporters think a change is needed, while 52 per cent do not. The survey shows the Tories on 43 per cent, Labour on 26 per cent, the Liberal Democrats on 19 per cent, the Greens on 4 per cent.

The Labour MP Frank Field urged Mr Brown to recall Mr Clarke and other "big hitters" such as David Blunkett, Stephen Byers and Alan Milburn to the Cabinet. Answering questions from readers of The Independent, he says he urged Alan Johnson to stand against Mr Brown last year.

Peter Hain, the former cabinet minister, has warned Labour it must win back its "core vote" as well as "aspirational Middle-Britain voters" if it is to retain power. In a pamphlet published today by the modernisers' group Progress, Mr Hain says it is a "false choice" to argue Labour should target either group. "It is not possible to form a Labour government by winning key marginal seats where aspirational voters predominate unless the core voters there actually turn out for the party ... The 'New Labour Ultra' assumption that core voters have nowhere else to go is plain wrong: they are staying at home, or voting for minority parties including, sadly, the BNP."

Crewe Labour Party's website has an image of a top hat and bow tie alongside the phrase: "Do You Want A Tory Con Man or a Dunwoody?" The Labour candidate is Tamsin Dunwoody, daughter of Gwyneth Dunwoody, the MP whose death last month triggered the by-election.

Harriet Harman, the Leader of the Commons, admitted Labour's tactics in Crewe were "not the most positive campaigning" but said it was intended to highlight the difference between the candidates rather than demonise Mr Timpson.

Ed Miliband, the Cabinet Office Minister, conceded the opinion polls were "bad" for the Government but was confident they could be turned round. Interviewed on Sky News, he defended the class-based attacks as "typical" of the stunts and "adventurous ways of campaigning" seen in by-elections. An ICM poll for the News of the World suggested the Tories had doubled their advantage in Crewe over the past week.

The hurdles ahead for Brown

*Today: MPs vote on whether to allow creation of human-animal embryos during debate on Human Fertilisation and Embryology Bill. Brown favours go-ahead.

*Tomorrow: MPs decide whether to lower 24-week limit for abortion. Brown will vote to retain it but opponents will try to secure 22 or 20 weeks.

*Thursday: By-election in Crewe and Nantwich. Tories are bookmakers' favourites.

*11 June: Crucial vote on Brown's plan to raise period for which suspected terrorists can be held without charge from 28 to 42 days. *July: Possible cabinet reshuffle. May be seen as the "last card" for Brown to revive his fortunes.

*22 July: Commons starts 11-week summer recess. Possible breathing space for Brown.

*20-24 September: Labour Party annual conference, Manchester. Seen by many Labour MPs as deadline by which Brown must reduce Tory lead in opinion polls.