Poll: Labour set to win the election - but people still don't like Ed Miliband

Drop in Tory support will fuel fears among its MPs that the party is experiencing a 'voteless recovery'

Political Editor

Labour is on course to win next year’s general election, even though a majority of people say that Ed Miliband deters them from voting for his party.

A ComRes survey for The Independent shows that the Conservatives have dropped to 27 per cent, their lowest in a poll for this newspaper since the 2010 election. The party is down three points on last month, while Labour, now on 33 per cent, is up one point. Ukip is down one point to 17 per cent, with the Liberal Democrats up one point to eight per cent and the Green Party up two points to seven per cent. If these findings were repeated at the election on a uniform swing, Labour would enjoy a majority of 74.

The drop in Tory support will fuel fears among its MPs that the party is experiencing a “voteless recovery” despite the improving economy.

Conversely, there will be relief in Labour circles that Mr Miliband’s unpopularity does not appear to be damaging the Labour brand as much as the Tories' hope. In a speech on Friday, he admitted his weakness on presentation, and argued that decency and substance mattered more than image and photo opportunities. But the move does not seem to have improved his personal standing.

Video: Watch Miliband's speech

Asked whether Mr Miliband puts them off voting for Labour at the general election, 54 per cent of the public agreed and 41 per cent disagreed. A third of Labour supporters (36 per cent) said the party leader put  them off, as did 75 per cent of Tory supporters. But Liberal Democrat supporters were more divided, with 54 per cent saying that Mr Miliband put them off and 41 per cent that he did not.

Asked whether they believed what Mr Miliband says more than they believed David Cameron, only 32 per cent of the public agreed and 57 per cent disagreed. One in four Labour supporters (26 per cent) do not believe the party’s leader more than they believe Mr Cameron.

One in five (20 per cent) people said they would be more likely to vote Labour if Tony Blair were party leader, including one in eight Tory supporters (12 per cent) and one in 10 Ukip supporters (10 per cent). Three in 10 Labour supporters said that they would be more likely to vote for the party next May if Mr Blair were leader, but 69 per cent would not be. The former Prime Minister has a following among younger voters: 30 per cent of 18-24 year-olds and 23 per cent of 25-34 year-olds would be more likely to vote Labour if he were leader, compared to just 13 per cent of over 65s.

Labour’s pledge to stick within the Coalition’s spending limits for the 2015-16 financial year if it wins the election has not yet convinced the public. Asked if they believed that Labour would probably start increasing levels of government spending as soon as it got into power, 58 per cent agreed and 35 per cent disagreed. Some 58 per cent of Labour supporters expect the party to boost spending immediately. 

Tom Mludzinski, head of political polling at ComRes, said: “This poll brings mixed news for Labour. Despite the six-point lead over the Conservatives, many voters are put off by Mr Miliband at the top of the ticket, causing some concern about how solid Labour’s lead is going into next year’s election.”

ComRes interviewed 1,001 GB adults by telephone between 25 and 27 July. Data were weighted to be demographically representative of all GB adults. Data were also weighted by past vote recall. ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

Start your day with The Independent, sign up for daily news emails
Have you tried new the Independent Digital Edition apps?
ebooks
ebooksAn introduction to the ground rules of British democracy
Latest stories from i100
Have you tried new the Independent Digital Edition apps?
SPONSORED FEATURES
Independent Dating
and  

By clicking 'Search' you
are agreeing to our
Terms of Use.

iJobs Job Widget
iJobs General

Recruitment Genius: Administrative Assistant / Order Fulfilment

£14000 per annum: Recruitment Genius: An exciting opportunity to join a thrivi...

SThree: Trainee Recruitment Consultant

£18000 - £23000 per annum + Uncapped OTE: SThree: Trainee Recruitment Consulta...

SThree: Trainee Recruitment Consultant

£18000 - £23000 per annum + Uncapped OTE: SThree: Trainee Recruitment Consulta...

Recruitment Genius: Production Operative

£13000 - £17000 per annum: Recruitment Genius: Due to a period of sustained an...

Day In a Page

Refugee crisis: David Cameron lowered the flag for the dead king of Saudi Arabia - will he do the same honour for little Aylan Kurdi?

Cameron lowered the flag for the dead king of Saudi Arabia...

But will he do the same honour for little Aylan Kurdi, asks Robert Fisk
Our leaders lack courage in this refugee crisis. We are shamed by our European neighbours

Our leaders lack courage in this refugee crisis. We are shamed by our European neighbours

Humanity must be at the heart of politics, says Jeremy Corbyn
Joe Biden's 'tease tour': Could the US Vice-President be testing the water for a presidential run?

Joe Biden's 'tease tour'

Could the US Vice-President be testing the water for a presidential run?
Britain's 24-hour culture: With the 'leisured society' a distant dream we're working longer and less regular hours than ever

Britain's 24-hour culture

With the 'leisured society' a distant dream we're working longer and less regular hours than ever
Diplomacy board game: Treachery is the way to win - which makes it just like the real thing

The addictive nature of Diplomacy

Bullying, betrayal, aggression – it may be just a board game, but the family that plays Diplomacy may never look at each other in the same way again
8 best children's clocks

Tick-tock: 8 best children's clocks

Whether you’re teaching them to tell the time or putting the finishing touches to a nursery, there’s a ticker for that
Isis profits from destruction of antiquities by selling relics to dealers - and then blowing up the buildings they come from to conceal the evidence of looting

How Isis profits from destruction of antiquities

Robert Fisk on the terrorist group's manipulation of the market to increase the price of artefacts
Labour leadership: Andy Burnham urges Jeremy Corbyn voters to think again in last-minute plea

'If we lose touch we’ll end up with two decades of the Tories'

In an exclusive interview, Andy Burnham urges Jeremy Corbyn voters to think again in last-minute plea
Tunisia fears its Arab Spring could be reversed as the new regime becomes as intolerant of dissent as its predecessor

The Arab Spring reversed

Tunisian protesters fear that a new law will whitewash corrupt businessmen and officials, but they are finding that the new regime is becoming as intolerant of dissent as its predecessor
King Arthur: Legendary figure was real and lived most of his life in Strathclyde, academic claims

Academic claims King Arthur was real - and reveals where he lived

Dr Andrew Breeze says the legendary figure did exist – but was a general, not a king
Who is Oliver Bonas and how has he captured middle-class hearts?

Who is Oliver Bonas?

It's the first high-street store to pay its staff the living wage, and it saw out the recession in style
Earth has 'lost more than half its trees' since humans first started cutting them down

Axe-wielding Man fells half the world’s trees – leaving us just 422 each

However, the number of trees may be eight times higher than previously thought
60 years of Scalextric: Model cars are now stuffed with as much tech as real ones

60 years of Scalextric

Model cars are now stuffed with as much tech as real ones
Theme parks continue to draw in thrill-seekers despite the risks - so why are we so addicted?

Why are we addicted to theme parks?

Now that Banksy has unveiled his own dystopian version, Christopher Beanland considers the ups and downs of our endless quest for amusement
Tourism in Iran: The country will soon be opening up again after years of isolation

Iran is opening up again to tourists

After years of isolation, Iran is reopening its embassies abroad. Soon, there'll be the chance for the adventurous to holiday there