Poll of polls shows Tory support dropping away
Andrew Grice has been Political Editor of The Independent since 1998. He was previously Political Editor of The Sunday Times, where he worked for 10 years, and he has been a Westminster-based journalist since 1982. His column, Inside Politics, appears in The Independent each Saturday.
Friday 05 October 2012
David Cameron will enter the Conservative conference with his party at its lowest level of support since the 2010 election, according to The Independent's "poll of polls".
Amid signs that Ed Miliband received a bounce from his One Nation Labour conference speech, the Tories have dropped to 32 per cent (down one point on the previous month), with Labour unchanged on 41 per cent and the Liberal Democrats on 13 per cent (up one point). If these ratings were repeated at the next election, Labour would have a huge majority of 94.
The Tories are being damaged by a loss of economic competence and Mr Cameron's personal standing is also on the slide. John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde University, who compiled the figures, said it appeared that the Prime Minister is "getting much of the blame" for big mistakes made by his ministers in recent months. In a trend that will worry Tory activists, Ukip is reaping the benefit from the Tories' decline. The anti-EU party has doubled its average poll rating to 6 per cent since March as it picks up protest votes that might normally have gone to the Liberal Democrats. Professor Curtice said that, even if Mr Cameron hardens his promise of an EU referendum, disillusioned Tory supporters may not return to the fold unless the party restores its reputation for competence.
Yesterday, an Ipsos Mori survey found that the Conservatives are seen by the public as more divided and out of date than they were a year ago, and viewed as more extreme than Labour or the Liberal Democrats. Meanwhile, YouGov reported that Mr Miliband has closed the gap on who would make the best Prime Minister since his conference speech. Although Mr Cameron remains ahead, by 31 per cent to 27 per cent, his lead is the lowest since Mr Miliband became Labour leader.
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