Reality check: the election is two long years away

A leading left-wing Labour MP has been approached by Blairite plotters to run as a possible "stalking horse" to unseat Gordon Brown, it was revealed yesterday.

Jon Cruddas has been sounded out by Charles Clarke about a move to represent a "coalition of the left and right" of the party to challenge the embattled Prime Minister.

Mr Cruddas told friends last night he is "not interested" in becoming a stalking horse – although he has not ruled out putting himself forward in an open contest.

But the extraordinary disclosure reveals the extent of behind the scenes machinations to get rid of Mr Brown, as discontent over his leadership reaches a peak.

As fevered speculation over the Prime Minister's future continued, there were words of caution in the senior ranks of both Labour and the Tories that the 2010 General Election is a long way into the future.

Mr Cruddas, a leading moderniser on the left of the Labour Party who ran Harriet Harman close in last year's deputy leadership contest, today warns the Prime Minister that the Crewe and Nantwich by-election result is a "final wake-up call" for the party.

In an interview with The Independent on Sunday, he says Labour risks a catastrophic "disintegration of an electoral coalition" of Middle England and traditional working-class voters formed under Tony Blair. He warns that the Government under Mr Brown is "tone deaf" to voters and that the Tories are more "emotionally in tune with large swathes of the electorate". Mr Cruddas does not call for Mr Brown to go now – but says the Prime Minister urgently needs to "demonstrate whose side we are on".

The comments amount to the first public warning from a figure who poses a serious threat to Mr Brown. Mr Cruddas is 10-1 to be the next Labour leader.

Labour peer Lord Desai added to Mr Brown's misery by warning that Labour's "only hope" of winning the next election was an "improved" Mr Brown. He said the Prime Minister must "move over" if he cannot change.

As Labour continued to tear itself apart in the wake of the disaster at Crewe, Tory leader David Cameron stepped up his campaign to sweep to power in two years' time. It emerged that the Conservatives are to launch a new fundraising drive called the No10 Club – which will sharpen the focus in the final push for Downing Street.

Former prime minister John Major is believed to be involved in the initiative.

John Prescott, the former deputy prime minister, said: "Let's have a bit of trust. Gordon can do the job.

"I want that man at the helm, who knows what the problems are, has shown he's done it over the last 10 years and if he doesn't smile too much, so what? Judge him on his record."

The shadow work and pensions spokesman Chris Grayling said: "If Labour MPs dump Gordon Brown it will only be to save their own political skins, not to help the country. The reality is that what we need right now is strong leadership, not political chaos, to help us through the economic crisis and make sure we start living within our means."

Former home secretary Charles Clarke is said to have a theoretical list of the 72 names needed for a challenge. Some MPs believe Mr Cruddas, who would have the support of 40 MPs from the Compass grouping on the left as well as Blairites who want a change, could be persuaded to change his mind.

Mr Cruddas today suggests the PM needs to come up with two or three simple messages to get through to voters. Mr Brown should consider a one-off windfall tax on the oil companies to put in the hands of consumers to help them get through rising fuel prices, the MP for Dagenham says.

Mr Cruddas says of the crushing defeat at Crewe: "This is a final wake-up call for us. Until and unless we really work through what is going on here we are going to have a big collision with the electorate at the next election....

"To heal the fractures we have to change... It is not about initiatives, it is about having a robust story in simple language about what are the concerns that people have.

"Why are these people [the Tories], in elections in Crewe or London, more emotionally in tune with large swathes of the electorate than us?

"Why do we appear tone deaf to some of these concerns in the country? There is something palpable out there in terms of people's worries about their future."

Who could take over?

DAVID MILIBAND 42, Foreign Secretary, 5-2 fav

Wavered over challenging Brown last year, which may cost him the leadership.

JAMES PURNELL 38, Work and Pensions Secretary, 6-1

Easy charm on TV. Signs senior Blairites are shifting money to him.

ALAN JOHNSON 58, Health Secretary, 6-1

Could be choice of caretaker should worst happen.

JACK STRAW 61, Justice Secretary, 7-1

Urged to be "grey suit" who tells Brown it's time to go.

ED BALLS 41, Schools Secretary, 8-1

Brown's closest ally is loyal but has ambitions to lead.

JON CRUDDAS 46, former deputy contender, 10-1

The leading thinker of the "modernising left".

CHARLES CLARKE 57, ex-home secretary, 33-1

Heavyweight critic of Brown.

Source: Ladbrokes

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