Salmond's White Paper puts Brown on defensive

Scottish independence was put back on the agenda yesterday by Alex Salmond, the First Minister for Scotland, in a White Paper paving the way for a referendum on the break-up of the Union.

Opposition parties accused Mr Salmond of using the White Paper for " nationalist propaganda", while the SNP leader himself claimed the " tectonic plates" were moving in Scotland and said he wanted a referendum for voters by 2010 on the Union.

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But Mr Salmond may already be close to achieving a compromise, which will see more power devolved from Westminster.

Launching what he billed a "national conversation", the First Minister in the SNP-led coalition government said no change was no longer an option. If he is proved right, it could present Gordon Brown with a serious challenge to his opposition to Scottish independence.

The Prime Minister has already been forced this week to bow to the demands for a debate over more powers for the Scottish Parliament. The most likely areas for further devolution are the variation of certain taxes north of the Border, energy policy and more broadcasting - Scottish viewers have already got "Scots" BBC Newsnight and Today programmes, but now they want the main BBC Six O'Clock News to be broadcast from Scotland as well.

Mr Brown was believed to be opposed to granting more powers to the Holyrood Parliament, but on Monday he gave his backing to a joint statement committing the three main Unionist parties to the debate over greater devolution of power from Westminster.

The SNP leader claims that Donald Dewar, the late Labour first minister in Scotland, once described devolution as an event, not a continuing process. Mr Brown's friends say they have no record of Mr Dewar saying that, but the Prime Minister was accused yesterday of performing a U-turn by allowing the debate on greater devolution - which takes up the whole of the second chapter of the White Paper - to go ahead.

The Secretary of State for Scotland, Des Browne, said: "What we have done is entered into a common cause with the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats to defend the Union. I reject the settlement for devolution does not have flexibility - it is designed to be adaptable. It is a two-way process."

The Prime Minister, who is running the Government during the summer from his office in his Kirkaldy and Cowdenbeath constituency, is also facing growing Tory protests over his Government's reliance on Labour MPs with Scottish seats like his own to vote through Bills that apply in England but not in Scotland. Those protests would increase as he concedes more devolved powers to the Scottish Parliament.

But the Tories too have recognised the advantages of being able to vary taxation in Scotland. While the SNP may wish to increase some taxes, the Scottish Tories see an opportunity for using the tax-varying powers as a chance to cut taxes. That has created a marriage of convenience across the Unionist parties for more devolution.

The rejection of independence by the three opposition parties in Scotland leaves little chance of the minority government's plans for a referendum receiving parliamentary approval. But Mr Salmond's White Paper set out three choices for Scots: the present, devolved set-up; re-designing devolution by extending the powers of the Scottish Parliament in specific areas; or full independence.

Mr Browne, who is also the Defence Secretary and has a seat in Kilmarnock, warned yesterday against allowing "the cleverness of Alex Salmond and the SNP to dress this up as anything other than what it is - the central theme of the document is about breaking up Britain." He added: " This is what Alex Salmond is about. People of Scotland identify that and they don't support it. This was tested recently in an election in Scotland and 65 per cent voted for parties who want to preserve a United Kingdom."

But the wily Mr Salmond, like Robert the Bruce and the famous spider in a cave, shows no sign of giving up.

The SNP plans

Defence

The SNP would scrap Trident, Britain's submarine-launched nuclear weapon system, and would prevent Scottish troops from taking part in any future illegal wars - such as the invasion of Iraq. This, they claim, would make Scotland less of a terrorist target. The Scots would still have a non-nuclear defence force, and they would have to pay for it. The SNP says its armed forces would work with the British Army, but as a non-nuclear neighbour. That may prove problematic.

Oil

An international convention has determined that the North Sea north of the 55th parallel is under Scottish jurisdiction, which means 90 per cent of the UK's oil and gas reserves are within Scottish waters. A government report in 1975 saying it would make Scotland one of the richest nations in Europe was classified as secret for 30 years, until it was revealed in 2005 as a result of a Freedom of Information request. Since then, the oil reserves have started to run out.

Europe

Alex Salmond has emphasised Scotland's place as a nation within Europe. He went to Brussels to make a speech before he travelled to London as First Minister. He is also keen to develop more Scottish consulates abroad. Independence would make them full-blown Scottish embassies. It would be a member of the UN, but would lose its place through Britain on the UN Security Council.

Monarchy

The Queen would still have her Scottish castle at Balmoral, but the SNP has promised a referendum on Scotland becoming a republic. It seems highly unlikely that the Scots would vote for an English monarch as their head of state after a vote for independence. It would prove highly embarrassing for Gordon Brown and members of his Cabinet who also have Scottish seats. If they were prevented from sitting at Westminster, it would deprive Labour of a majority.

Devolution

If separation is resisted, it is almost certain more powers will be devolved, including taxation, the Civil Service, broadcasting and energy (including 'no' to a new generation of nuclear power stations).