Tories and Labour neck and neck in latest by-elections

Tories and Labour are running neck and neck in the latest council by-elections which saw just one seat change hands.

Independent Jill Hood gained from Conservatives at Walton, Stafford Borough.

There was a near miss for Labour which finished just six votes short of winning a Tory Cokeham seat and a foothold on Adur District Council, West Sussex.

The party's candidate this time had finished third behind Liberal Democrats in last year's polls when he had given no description on the ballot paper.

Lib Dems scored swings against Labour at Bridge, Nottingham and also at Park Hall in nearby Mansfield District. They also held on at Bookham South, Mole Valley District, Surrey in a ward where Tories won another seat this year.

There was a shift back to Conservatives at Eccles, Salford compared with this May's results but it highlights the challenge they face next year when they will be seeking to defend a seat of their own in that ward.

Analysis of six comparable results this week suggests a projected nationwide Tory lead over Labour of just 0.1%.

A calculation based on four wards fought both times by all three major parties gives a line-up of C 38.5%, Lab 36.5%, Lib Dem 15.0%.


Bromley London Borough - Shortlands: C 1480, Lib Dem 490, Lab 256, Ukip 153, Green 75, BNP 35. (May 2010 - Two seats C 3629, 2986, Green 910, Lab 892, Lib Dem 835, 767, Lab 428). C hold. Swing 2.2% C to LD.

Cheshire West and Chester Council - Ellesmere Port Town: Lab 686, C 102, Socialist Lab 65, Ukip 64, Lib Dem 41. (May 2011 - Two seats Lab 1522, 1212, C 258, 226, Lib Dem 129). Lab hold. Swing 1.9% Lab to C.

Great Yarmouth Borough - Bradwell South and Hopton: C 557, Lab 407, Ukip 159. (May 2011 - C 929, Lab 722, Ukip 256, Green 103). C hold. Swing 1.5% Lab to C.

Mansfield District - Park Hall: Lab 416, Ind 164, Lib Dem 157, Ukip 25, C 20. (May 2011 - Lab 482, Ind 294, Lib Dem 58). Lab hold. Swing 8.8% Lab to Lib Dem.

Mole Valley District - Bookham South: Lib Dem 1043, C 940, Ukip 228. (May 2011 - C 1228, Lib Dem 1168, Ukip 222). Lib Dem hold. Swing 3.5% C to Lib Dem.

Nottingham City - Bridge: Lab 1152, Lib Dem 892, C 172, Ukip 50. Bus-Pass Elvis Party 27. (May 2011 - Two seats Lab 1613, 1470, Lib Dem 1121, 843, C 365, 345). Lab hold. Swing 4.1% Lab to Lib Dem.

Salford City - Eccles: Lab 1227, C 701, BNP 147, Lib Dem 125, Ind 53. (May 2011 - Lab 1877, C 950, Ukip 368, Lib Dem 213). Lab hold. Swing 1.9% Lab to C.

Stafford Borough - Walton: Ind 569, C 372, Lab 306. (May 2011 - Three seats C 1009, 900, 824, Ind 740, Lab 656, 517, 469, No description 469). Ind gain from C. Swing 4.2% C to Lab.

From Tuesday:

Adur District - Cokeham: C 288, Lab 282, Ukip 91, Green 35, Lib Dem 31. (May 2010 - C 923, Lib Dem 594, No description 446, Ukip 226). C hold.


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