Victory on 42 days will not halt bid to oust Brown

Labour critics of Gordon Brown will press ahead with moves to oust him even if he survives this week's crucial Commons vote on plans to allow police to detain suspected terrorists for up to 42 days.

The Prime Minister's opponents claim a growing number of backbenchers believe he must stand down before the next election to give the party any chance of winning.

Their concern will be heightened by The Independent's latest monthly "poll of polls", which shows the Tories on their highest rating and Labour with their lowest figure since the series began in 2005.

Ministers said Wednesday's vote was on a "knife edge" and frantic arm-twisting will continue until it takes place. Although some Labour MPs who opposed the controversial proposal have been won round, others are standing firm and ministers fear a humiliating defeat that would knock another nail in Mr Brown's political coffin. Mr Brown's allies hope a victory, however narrow, would give the Prime Minister a breathing space, silencing the doubts about his future until Parliament's summer break and allowing him to launch a concerted fightback this autumn.

But yesterday his opponents dismissed that scenario, claiming that opinion was hardening against Mr Brown every week.

"Forty two days is a sideshow," one former minister insisted. "The tide is moving against him. The view of many backbenchers is that he has got to go. They want it to happen – but they still fear the consequences of making it happen."

Another prominent critic of Mr Brown said: "One day's good headlines on 42 days would not change the fundamental position. He is in deep, deep trouble."

The "poll of polls" highlights the dramatic decline in Labour's support since the March Budget. The weighted average of the surveys taken last month puts the Tories on 43 per cent, Labour on 27 per cent and the Liberal Democrats on 19 per cent.

Labour's support has dropped by a quarter – or eight points – in about eight weeks. In the six surveys taken before the Budget, the Tories averaged 39 per cent and Labour 34 per cent. But in the six polls since last month's local elections, the Tories rose to 44 per cent and Labour slumped to 26 per cent. The drop in Labour's support in recent weeks has been little short of spectacular," said John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde University, who compiled the figures.

"The Budget, the 10p tax row, doubts about the Government's handling of the economy and perhaps the feeling, encouraged by the local elections, that Mr Brown is a 'loser', have between them taken a terrible toll."

Although Mr Brown has denied that the 42 days issue will amount to a vote of confidence in him, the Tories claim potential Labour rebels are being warned that the Prime Minister would resign if he loses the Commons vote. They said that rebels were being told: "Vote no on Wednesday and you get David Miliband on Thursday."

In a letter to every Labour MP, Mr Brown pleaded for their support for "the principle of protecting the public without undermining civil liberties", saying this was at the heart of the legislation.

The Prime Minister received a boost yesterday when an ICM survey for The Sunday Telegraph found that 65 per cent of the public support the 42-day detention plan, with only 30 per cent backing the current 28-day limit.

Jacqui Smith, the Home Secretary, admitted that MI5 had not "directly" asked the Government to extend the time limit. But she told the BBC's Andrew Marr Show that the security service had been "clear about the growing scale of the threat" from terrorism. She insisted that 42 days was a "safeguard, not a target", and a "reasonable maximum".

David Davis, the shadow Home Secretary, pledged that a Tory government would reverse the 42-day limit if it is approved by Parliament. "Unless there's any evidence in the interim the other way it will go back to 28 days," he said.

At its annual conference in Plymouth today, the GMB union will discuss whether to cut its financial support for Labour because of the "huge anger" of its members towards the Government.

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