Wobbly Tories: Conservatives still short of a clear win
While David Cameron is the favourite on points to be next prime minister, he is dogged by his party's ideological infighting
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Independent Minds
As the dust settles on the fallout from the 4 June elections and the failed coup against Gordon Brown, the Conservatives, under David Cameron, should be riding high on opinion poll ratings of 45 per cent or more, and preparing to wave goodbye to the last months of a Labour government.
But there are signs that the party is experiencing something of a wobble, although the Conservatives remain clear favourites to win in 2010.
The Tories, like all the main parties in Westminster, are being punished for the expenses crisis; and the success of Ukip in the European elections has kept the Conservative share of the vote in check.
In the past week, the Tory leadership has also been hit by rows over two toxic issues for the party: Europe, and tax and spending. And there is a further issue causing concern to senior figures: the publication next month of full details of pay and hours of outside business interests of MPs.
Last month, William Hague announced he was dropping his lucrative directorships in September to focus on the next election. And other senior Tories who earn tens of thousands of pounds outside Parliament will also come under pressure to scale back the moonlighting.
A poll published on Friday has put the Tories on 36 per cent, 12 points ahead of Labour. Yet, despite the healthy lead, this is short of the 40 per cent "magic" number needed to be confident of a majority at the next election.
But it is the row over Mr Cameron's decision to withdraw from the federalist European People's Party and form a new grouping with right-wing fringe parties that could become the most serious problem. Pro-European grandees such as Lord Brittan and Lord Patten have already condemned the decision as "unwise".
Mr Cameron and the shadow Foreign Secretary William Hague promised to unveil their controversial new European Parliament group within days of the elections, but this weekend only two parties were confirmed as members: the Czech Civic Democratic (ODS) and the Polish Justice and Law (PiS) parties, which have questionable records on gay rights.
And last week, Tory officials met members of the Danish People's Party, which is anti-immigrant and whose members are accused of Islamophobia. Last night a Tory spokesman insisted the party would have enough MEPs – 25 – from the seven countries needed to form a new grouping, which would be unveiled within days.
In the face of controversy about Mr Cameron's new homophobic friends, the party has taken steps to appear more gay-friendly.
A new event, backed by the Tory leadership, will be launched at the party conference in Manchester in October. Called "Conference Pride", the event carries a new version of the Conservatives' tree logo in rainbow colours. An insider said: "This is about celebrating diversity and reaching out to all sections of the party."
Cabinet ministers, trying to deflect attention from the Prime Minister's troubles, will this week step up pressure on the Tories by branding Mr Cameron "Mr 10 Per Cent".
It follows shadow Health Secretary Andrew Lansley's remarks last week that Whitehall spending would have to be cut by 10 per cent after 2011 due to the economic climate. While Mr Lansley insisted he was referring to Labour's own figures, the Tory leadership was furious, believing Labour had been handed an easy slogan, "Mr 10 Per Cent", for the election campaign. Labour leaflets featuring Mr Cameron and the slogan were this weekend sent to marginal constituencies.
Next month, Ian Gibson, the departing Labour MP for Norwich North, leaves behind a 5,459 majority over the Tories. Given that they overturned a 7,000 Labour majority in Crewe and Nantwich last year on a 17.6 per cent swing, Conservative candidate Chloe Smith should win the seat easily. But if she fails, fresh questions will be raised over whether a Tory landslide is really on the cards.
David Cameron's European bedfellows
The Conservatives will announce within days their partners in a new Eurosceptic group in the European Parliament, when they will controversially depart from the European People's Party.
The rules state that the new group must contain at least 25 MEPs from seven different member states.
Exactly who is Conservative leader David Cameron getting into bed with?
Czech Civic Democrats (ODS)
Leader Mirek Topolanek, a former Czech Prime Minister, is a holiday friend of Silvio Berlusconi. Topolanek initially denied, then admitted, being the naked man pictured in a state of arousal next to a young woman on a sun lounger beside Berlusconi's swimming pool. The right-wing ODS has nine MEPs. Its founder, Vaclav Klaus, has cast doubt on scientific evidence about climate change. The ODS has publicly signed up to Mr Cameron's group.
Polish Justice and Law Party (PiS)
One of the largest parties in the European Parliament with 15 MEPs. Its leader is Jaroslaw Kaczynski, left. Party founders have made homophobic statements, including warning that homosexuality will lead to the downfall of civilisation, and it is opposed to gay-rights marches. Members of the PiS recently wrote that homosexuality was a "pathology". Publicly signed up to the new group.
Danish People's Party (PPD)
New Danish People's Party MEP Morten Messerschmidt, right, held talks with Tory officials in Brussels last Tuesday, but the PPD has not yet confirmed membership. It is anti-immigration and has been condemned for Islamophobia, as as well as by the Paris-based European Jewish Congress. Has two MEPs.
Movement for France (MPF)
The party of Philippe de Villiers, a Eurosceptic. Takes hard line on opposing European integration, but is also in favour of EU protectionism, something which the Tories oppose. The MPF has not yet confirmed membership.
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Comments
Everyone knows Brown's "Labour Investment vs Tory Cuts" line is a lie. It will backfire badly. Labour have heavily lost donors and councillors. And there is still massive infighting at the top.
Look at the medium term, and don't get carried away by one poll.
Love it or loath, or just regarding the EU as a fact of life, Europe is far too important for any British government to ignore. We need Britih ministers round the negotiating table of EU institutions promoting British interests with all means at its disposal. Being part of the European mainstream is a vital part of that process.
I've thought for a long time that the Tories have still not changed from the party that was trounced in 1997 and in two elections since. Cameron has done a brilliant job of erecting a smokescreen. But they don't have a credible economic policy, and they haven't come clean about how they will deal with Britain's debt mountain - public and private.
They may well be elected next year. But that will be the easy bit. My fear is that in government the Tories will prove just as incompetent as New Labour. I expect the election, when it comes, to be close with other parties, especially the Lib Dems and Nationalists, doing better than expected. The Tories are not ready for government, and to give them a landslide would not be in our interests as a nation.
Gordon Brown is directly responsible for the banking crises in this country. Gordon Brown was the architect that allowed this crises to happen. Gordon Brown has been tinkering with the financial regulators and refused to allow them to intervene. Gordon Brown wasted billions in refinancing the banking industry when he could just as easily bought them out lock, stock and barrel for a fraction of the cost once their share value hit rock bottom and we wouldn't have been obliged to pay billions in bonuses for their failure. Instead of refinancing the banks he should have authorised the Bank of England to offer business loans and mortgages.
Gordon Brown is without doubt the most incompetent Chancellor/PM this country has ever seen. He has thrown hundreds of billions away on failed initiatives, given billions away in foreign aid, sold half our gold reserves at a time when gold was at an all time low, raided our pension funds rendering them valueless, spent every penny we gained from North Sea oil and betrayed the entire nation on the EU referendum.
It matters not one jot if the Labour party replace him today, tomorrow, before or after the general election. Labour are no longer a serious electoral option and will not be part of any government this side of 2050.
Me too berewic ! What you didn't say in your excellent summary is that the Un-dead Gorden Brown was not elected by anyone on this planet to be Prime Minister, he was merely anointed.
And mind_ful, as for every one voting for superficial reasons, speak for yourself, and carry on reading te Telegraph, you might learn something to your advantage...
As for learning anything. You write like someone who's benefited from NuLabours education curriculum.
Can't write, can't think and make no sense at all.
So to summarise, WTF are you on about?
However, apart form that I agree. Brown is an incompetent clown as PM and Chancellor.
He might he a mate of Cameroon but he is not the right person to run the economy - and the public know that. Given the importance f the economy at the moment and through the next election, Osborne will be one of the main problems the Conservatives have to overcome. As one of Cameron's mates it is unlikely they will get rid of him - so they have to find a way to sideline him and get somebody who can do the job to take a higher profile.
The so called 'three main parties' are failing due to their almost identical policies. There is virtually no difference between any of them and who can believe Cameron when he says he'll hold a referendum on the EU treaty? If the Conservatives were genuinely concerned about McBroons betrayal, they would be making considerably more noise than the minor squeak they make now.
The electorate are left with four choices at the next general election. UKIP, Green, BNP or the LabourLimpDemConcervative party. The problem for the LabourLimpDemConservative party is they pretend to be three separate parties and are therefore dividing their support by three. This may have worked in the past, due to the lack of alternative options but now Joe public have several.
Politicians seem more interested in explaining their failure than actually addressing the cause. In Labours case, addressing the cause is obvious and easy if the party become adequately motivated and the cause can stop bullying them for 30 seconds.
Right again, the voters are showing the same contempt shown to them by the Brown Cabal, and the rest.
Each political party pays a stipend, each year, for each MP that gets elected from their party.
This money is paid into a savings account that accrues interest.
If, at the end of each year, each MP has been honest, law-abiding, etc, the party gets to keep the interest accrued on their payment for that MP for that year.
If, however, an MP is shown to be other than honest, law-abiding, etc, the political party forfeits both their interest for that year, and must pay back the interest given to them for each year that MP has been elected.
The stipend the party has paid each year for that MP will then be invested in a fund for taxpayers.
The same for business leaders - their business pays a stipend each year ...
Would sort out the crooks from the criminals pretty quick.
Funnily enough billionaires' candidates and politicians might not be fussed about the 'fines' - this is arecipie for a plutocracy, albeit a rather more obvious one than multi millionaire Cameron and his party's owner billionaire Lord Ashcroft are working for . . .
Did Brown and co save or screw the economy is what will make the biggest difference. Can the Tories offer a convincing narrative on our economic future
Gay rights and Europe don't figure in most people's thinking.
I recall from the '60s that it was said that 1 in 20 were homosexual, I suspect more are now gay/lesbian. Cameron may not have given Alan Duncan, who is expert in the economy when compared to Osborne his due, but he has tried to look gay friendly and he does everything for an electoral reason, however cack handedly. Ask billionaire Ashcroft who has a larger office at their HQ than the boy Cameron himself . . .
UKIP gained more votes than the tories in some constituencies which Chameleon needs to win
http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/data
(Yes I do know that Council boundaries are not always the same a Constituency ones)
Neow what other policy areas would you advise Cameron to take an unpopular line on?
Cuts . . ???? We - e - e - e - ll . . .
He hasn't abandoned the agenda to demand an election of anything similarly silly as Chameleon has, nor has be flip floped on Europe, as Cameron now has, which will seriously peeve the UKIPPers who have a lead over the Tories in some constituencies.
He has avoided the USA led recession of 2002, and we went into this one later than most European states, and are out of it sooner.
As per 2004 - 5 there is still plenty of time for Labour to recover, and Chameleon's PR is now slipping away . . .