Scotland independence: Where, when, but who knows how - possible referendum results by region

Survey the electoral map of Scotland on the day of an unprecedented poll

Click to follow

Dundee will probably be majority Yes. The Shetlands in all likelihood mostly No. But the rest of the voters? That’s anybody’s guess.

1 Aberdeen Oil boom city has been hard-fought battle ground. No vote expecting victory. Expected to be last to declare. Expected declaration: 6:00 (4.4 % of the electorate)

2 Aberdeenshire Royal Deeside home to Balmoral as well as Alex Salmond’s MSP seat. Both sides are optimistic about winning here. 03:00 (4.7%)

3 Angus Largest towns are Arbroath and Carnoustie. SNP performs strongly so likely to lean towards Yes  03:00 (2.2%)

4 Argyll and Bute Rural and mountainous highlands and islands including Islay, the home of whisky. Nationalists expect to win here. 03:30 (1.7%)

5 Edinburgh Scottish capital is vital to future of Union. It is expected to opt for No. 05:00 (9.2%)

6 Clackmannanshire The Wee County is tipped for a large Yes vote. It should provide an early morale boost for the Nationalists 02:30 (1%)

7 Dumfries and Galloway No campaign put party plans on hold in the Border country. 03:00 (2.9%)

8 Dundee ‘Yes City’ could be first of the big urban population centres to return. If Yes fails to win big here, it looks grim for Alex Salmond.  03:00 (2.8%)

9 East Ayrshire Polls suggest Kilmarnock and its surrounding areas could be leaning towards Yes. 03:00 (2.3%)

 

10 East Dunbartonshire A mixture of Glaswegian  suburbs and commuter  villages, it is likely to lean more heavily towards  No than its big neighbour 03.30 (2%)

11 East Lothian Borders Edinburgh to the east and its commuter towns and coastal villages look likely to share the capital’s pro-Union instincts 02:00 (1.9%)

12 East Renfrewshire Glasgow commuter towns whose MPs include leading No campaigner Jim Murphy. Its vote could be evenly split. 03:00 (1.7%)

13 Falkirk Key battleground that could edge towards independence. Former MP Denis Canavan chairs Yes Scotland 03:00 (2.9%)

14 Fife Gordon Brown’s home patch and considered a vital swing area in the referendum campaign. No will be desperate to win. 04:00 (6.9%)

15 Glasgow Scotland’s biggest city could decide the fate of the nation. No needs its traditionally Labour-loyal areas to come out 05:00 (11.4%)

16 Highlands Largest district has a Liberal Democrat tradition, but surveys suggest it is in the Yes camp 04:00 (4.4%)

17 Inverclyde Labour heartlands centring on Greenock. Could provide an early signal to which way Glasgow will jump. Yes canvassers are optimistic 02:00 (1.5%)

18 Midlothian Alex Salmond grew up in Linlithgow and there is a tradition of  independence in the area. Yes could shade it here.  03:30  (1.6%)

19 Moray Heavily agricultural area where the SNP performs strongly and will want to achieve a comfortable majority for Yes. 02:00 (1.8%)

20 Na h-Eileanan Siar Or the Outer Hebrides, is the origin of Harris Tweed. Has an SNP MP, but that does not necessarily mean it will overwhelmingly opt for Yes. 02:00 (0.5%)

21 North Ayrshire, which includes the island of Arran, is a large council area whose voters are expected to be split over independence 04:30 (2.7%)

22 North Lanarkshire Sits at the heart of the ‘central belt’ and is a traditional Labour fiefdom. Yes Scotland has poured heavy resources into the area. 02:00 (6.3 per cent)

23 Orkney Islands Has traditionally been resistant to Nationalist charms and likely to vote No. If Yes performs strongly here, Alex Salmond will  have the champagne on ice. 02:00 (0.4%)

24 Perth and Kinross Alex Salmond travelled to the city last night to make its final pitch to the voters. Despite some Tory strength in the area, it is expected to opt  for Yes. 02:00 (2.8%)

8-NoCampaign-Getty.jpg
25 Renfrewshire An  important swing area to the east of Glasgow which includes Paisley. It could be even divided. Either side will be delighted to win here. 03:00 (3.1%)

26 Scottish Borders A political earthquake really will be underway if this area, home to Scotland’s one Tory MP, returns anything than a decisive No vote 05:00 (2.2%)

27 Shetland Islands This oil-rich island group tends  to be as suspicious of  Edinburgh as London and is set to return a large No vote. 03:30 (0.4%)

28 South Ayrshire The first Scottish parliament was held here by Robert the Bruce, but it is still heading for a No vote. 03.30 (2.2%)

29 South Lanarkshire The camps will pore over this result in this heavily-populated area where the outcome is believed to be in the balance. Ed Miliband made a high-profile visit 03:00 (6.1%)

30 Stirling The home of Stirling castle is a key referendum flash-point. The winning side here may think it is on course for victory nationally. 03:00 (1.7%)

31 West Dunbartonshire Crucial swing area which is why Gordon Brown travelled to Clydebank this week to make an impassioned speech on retaining the Union 03:00 (1.7%)

32 West Lothian Historic county north of Edinburgh includes the birthplace of Mary Queen of Scots. It is thought to be leaning towards Yes. 03.30 (3.2%)

Comments