Paisley has power to dash hopes of election progress

Northern Ireland's voters go to the polls today in an election which, despite a remarkably low-key campaign, is expected to deliver a highly important result for the peace process.

They are to vote in Assembly elections which, Tony Blair is adamant, represent the last chance of restoring a power-sharing devolved government to Northern Ireland. If the hopes of London and Dublin are realised, the contest will pave the way for an agreement between Ian Paisley and his Democratic Unionist Party and Sinn Fein.

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The inter-governmental timetable envisages a new administration running before the end of this month. The nightmare scenario, however, is that Mr Paisley could opt for delay rather than an immediate breakthrough. It is not in doubt that his party will strengthen its existing position as the leading grouping in Unionism, which means he will have the option of becoming Northern Ireland's First Minister when the Assembly convenes on 26 March.

The uncertainty arises from the fact that opinions within his party differ on whether the time has arrived for it to go into government with Sinn Fein. The weeks before 26 March will be an anxious time as London and Dublin wait to see whether he will go for it or say the time is not right.

Strong signals are coming both from the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland, Peter Hain, and the Taoiseach, Bertie Ahern, that delay would bring political penalties.

Insisting that 26 March is an absolute deadline, Mr Hain said: "I would hate to think that people will wake up on 27 March and realise what an opportunity they have thrown away. 26 March is the date, otherwise Stormont will close down."

Mr Ahern warned: "It would be unconscionable and deeply regrettable if this agreed deadline is missed and if the opportunity to govern is not taken."

The Taoiseach said other options which had been drawn up were not ideal. The governments did not want to pursue them, he added, "but if we are forced into it, we are forced into it".

Voting will take place against a background of much-improved security, in contrast to some previous contests when a heavy security presence was required at some polling stations. In south Armagh, for example, the once-strong military presence has been reduced to a handful of soldiers in two bases. The Army is due to leave the area altogether by the end of July.

Another phenomenon which is viewed as a sign of normalisation is the fact that bread-and-butter issues, such as unpopular plans for new water taxes, have played a prominent part in the campaign. All parties have also already reached agreement that Gordon Brown should oblige a new administration by supplying a "peace dividend" and increasing Northern Ireland's already hefty financial subsidies. There is talk that the Republic could also contribute.

Mr Paisley and Sinn Fein have had the occasional rhetorical swing at each other during the campaign but they have tended to pull their punches and generated little heat. Claiming credit for recent concessions made by Sinn Fein, the DUP leader declared: "Republicans have been forced to jump first and deliver before government can be established. On any analysis huge progress has been made towards a lasting form of democratic devolution. We have already made very considerable progress and will compel republicans to make full, and hopefully early, delivery."

The key players at Stormont

Gerry Adams

He has staked Sinn Fein's future on pursuing a peace process which has included the steps of having the IRA dispose of its weapons and cease its activities. By doing so he has made Sinn Fein acceptable partners in government to most elements in the peace process - though Ian Paisley has yet formally to agree.

Bertie Ahern

As Taoiseach for the past 10 years he has helped bring about huge improvements in Anglo-Irish relations. He has also built many bridges between Unionists and the Republic, including inviting Ian Paisley to Dublin for breakfast. His efforts have reduced Unionist fears about the Republic

Ian Paisley

The patriarch of Northern Ireland loyalist politics has become the undisputed leader of political Protestantism after the collapse of the Ulster Unionist Party. He is expected to make gains in this contest, though the biggest question is whether he will go into government with Sinn Fein by 26 March

Mark Durkan

Leader of the moderate nationalist Social Democratic and Labour Party is fighting against the possibility of further Sinn Fein inroads into his party's traditional vote. Sinn Fein is now the largest republican party but this time round there is a sense that any gains it will make from the SLDP will be modest.