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Who will win the UK general election?

A timetable for election day (and night) on 7 May - whether you're planning to stay up or night or not

Tom Brooks-Pollock

Tuesday 05 May 2015 15:21 BST

We might not know who's going to be prime minister for days - or even weeks

After a gruelling six-week campaign, voters finally go to the polls on Thursday.

The polls are neck-and-neck, so we might not know who's actually going to be the next prime minister for days, or even weeks.

But as the results roll in on Thursday night and Friday morning, things will at least become a bit clearer. Here's what to look out for.

When can I vote?

The UK general election (as well as local elections in much of England outside London) is on Thursday 7 May. Polls open at 7am and close at 10pm. Around a sixth of people are registered for postal votes, so may have already voted.

Where can I vote?

Your local polling station. The address will be on your polling card sent to you by the elections office at your local council.

When will we begin to have the faintest idea about the outcome?

Exit polls - of voters after they have voted - come out at 10pm.

Houghton and Sunderland South (formerly Sunderland South) is traditionally the first constituency to declare. Last time that was at 10.52pm. Other Sunderland seats follow closely behind - but all are solidly Labour, so won't tell us much about the result.

Key marginal seats such as Nuneaton - which Labour are aiming to reclaim from the Tories - start to declare at 1am.

Most of the 650 seats will declare some time between 2am and 5am. Seven seats - St Ives, for example - do not begin counting until Friday morning, so the result won't be known until Friday lunchtime.

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 03/05/15

Show all 10

1/10In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 03/05/15

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 03/05/15

Andrew Hawkins (ComRes)

“The sclerotic, negative and risk-averse campaigns from the two main parties make it hard to see how much can alter. So, my prediction is the same – Tories get most votes, but Labour better placed to form a government. Then a long spell of political and perhaps constitutional chaos.”

Andrew Hawkins

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 03/05/15

Joe Twyman (YouGov)

“‘The world is changed, I feel it in the water, I feel it in the earth. I smell it in the air.’ So begins the film version of Lord of the Rings. – which is, of course, the famous tale of an epic journey culminating in the final battle between good and evil. The world of British politics has certainly changed. “With a few days still to go I expect that more change could still occur, but it is likely to be minor and the national level and more concentrated on the ground in the key marginal constituencies where the Hold Your Nose or Cut It Off to Spite Your Face™ message pushes home. I expect the Conservatives to be the beneficiaries, but it will not be anything like enough to make a difference to the overall result.”

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 03/05/15

Ben Page (Ipsos MORI)

“As the only pollster to correctly predict a hung parliament last time – and then foolishly change my prediction when I saw ALL the others were saying a Conservative majority – I am going to say hung parliament again. With more Conservative than Labour seats. The SNP won’t wipe out the Labour Party completely in Scotland but will get them down to single figures. The Lib Dems will out perform their poll numbers and should get circa 26 seats – or more. Ukip will be delighted with four seats at most, probably fewer.”

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 03/05/15

Rick Nye (Populus)

“Tories largest party, comfortably.”

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 03/05/15

Nick Moon (GfK)

“SNP now 50, Ukip 2; Tories to be largest party in votes and seats, but still a Labour minority government.”

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 03/05/15

Damian Lyons Lowe (Survation)

“Conservatives – I’m upgrading my seats prediction to 270-280 from 260-280. Labour – downgrading again to 265-275, based on the SNPs’ continued surge and Conservatives doing better in our seat-voting question as the election draws near and views are localised: SNP 45; Lib Dems 30; Ukip 6; Green 1; Respect 1. Ed Miliband will be the next prime minister.”

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 03/05/15

Michelle Harrison (TNS)

“We enter the last few days of this campaign pretty much where we started. This election represents what happens when a country is not confident about its economic future, unsure of its place in the world, and fed up with the state of its politics. “The political stalemate at the centre, and the fragmentation of the traditional party system, has left us with a set of polls incapable of telling what will ultimately happen, when there are so many potential scenarios. What we can feel confident about though is that Thursday will be a seismic night for politics in Scotland. When the votes are counted, we expect the Tories to be the largest party, but that Labour should still have the greatest chance of forming a government. But how do we measure the advantage for the Conservatives of already being in No 10 in the days after the general election? The real drama will start on Friday.”

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 03/05/15

James Endersby (Opinium Research)

“We saw some movement to the Tories, but the two big parties are back to being neck and neck with the Conservatives a hair’s breadth ahead. How this translates into seats or a coalition is unclear but based on our numbers we’d put the Conservatives ahead of Labour on vote share but the two parties within 10 seats of each other in the new House of Commons. The maths here gives Ed Miliband more options than David Cameron, so it might be sensible for voters to look up Ramsay MacDonald when trying to make sense of the result!”

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 03/05/15

Martin Boon (ICM)

“The Tories appear to have developed a little momentum, which may or may not make any difference. I sense the now traditional herding of pollsters has begun, and the polls will coalesce around a Tory lead of between two and six points. I’ll guess at 36 per cent for the Tories and 32 per cent for Labour. The fight for third place could go either way. Beyond that I just don’t know what will happen and defer to the academics and gamblers when it comes to seat projections, and indeed when it comes to who on earth is going to form our next government. I’d like to apologise to Independent on Sunday readers for fence-sitting, but as I’ve said repeatedly of late: How should I know? I’m only a pollster.”

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 03/05/15

Lord Ashcroft (Lord Ashcroft Polls)

He refuses to make predictions. “My polls are snapshots, not predictions.”

Rex

What are the key seats to look out for?

If Labour do not take Conservative-held Nuneaton, declaring at 1am, Ed Miliband is in line for a bad night.

In Scotland, huge Labour losses to the SNP are close to inevitable. But the reds at least hold on to its most senior MPs such as Scottish leader Jim Murphy or campaign strategist Douglas Alexander? Murphy's East Renfrewshire seat declares at 3am.

Also at 3am, Bristol West, the Greens' best hope of adding to their current tally of one MP.

Were you up for Nick Clegg? You'll know around 4.30am whether the Lib Dem leader has lost his Sheffield Hallam seat (majority: 15,000) to Labour.

Find out whether Nigel Farage has taken Thanet South - a three-way marginal - at around 6am.

Any more questions about voting?

The Electoral Commission's About My Vote website has more information.

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