Tuesday 14 April 1998
The flow of warm water south along the east Pacific coast, replacing the normal upwelling of cold water from the Southern Ocean, was much more extensive this winter than in normal years. In a report last week, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said the 1997-98 El Nino ranks as one of the major climatic events of the century. "Last winter gave the world a preview of what climate conditions may be like as global warming increases,'' Mr Baker said.
Some models, he said, indicate that with global warming the effects of El Nino will intensify, but he admitted there was no hard evidence this was happening.
The key words are "some models''. Attempts to model the climate using super-computers, desktop Pentiums or pen and paper have not been successful.
El Nino is driven by solar heat. If the total thermal input into the system increases, say as a result of carbon dioxide-induced warming, it might be expected that effects such as El Nino would increase. But it might also be expected that other thermal phenomena, such as tropical storms, would increase too. In fact, the severe El Nino of the past few months has been directly related to a fall in both the number, and severity, of tropical Atlantic storms.
It's all horribly complicated, and it's probably fair to say that inferences of catastrophic change from a few months' worth of data should be treated with extreme caution.
- 1 Rihanna 'nude pictures' claims emerge on 4Chan as hacking scandal continues
- 2 Kim Kardashian 'nude photos' leaked on 4chan weeks after Jennifer Lawrence scandal
- 3 'F*ck it, I quit': KTVA reporter Charlo Greene quits live on air in spectacular fashion
- 4 What are your fingerprint words?
- 5 Gary Lineker involved in Twitter row after presenter rubbishes claims he will be warned by BBC over foul-mouthed tweets
Rihanna 'nude pictures' claims emerge on 4Chan as hacking scandal continues
Kim Kardashian 'nude photos' leaked on 4chan weeks after Jennifer Lawrence scandal
'F*ck it, I quit': KTVA reporter Charlo Greene quits live on air in spectacular fashion
Jennifer Lawrence: Leaked 4Chan sex video branded 'fake' by users
Jennifer Lawrence 'naked sex video' will be leaked next, threatens 4Chan celebrity photo hacker
Scotland could still declare independence – even without referendum, says Alex Salmond
Scottish referendum results: Cross-party consensus collapses amid Tory-Labour spat on the 'English question'
Hilary Mantel 'should be investigated by police' over Margaret Thatcher assassination story, says Lord Bell
Scottish independence: David Cameron is becoming the 'George Bush of Britain'
Plebgate MP Andrew Mitchell called officer a 'little s**t', claim court documents 'exposing ex-Chief Whip's 'record of abusing police'
Archbishop of Canterbury admits doubts about existence of God
£16500 - £20000 Per Annum: Clearwater People Solutions Ltd: We are currently r...
£100 - £125 per day: Randstad Education Crawley: KS2 PPA Teacher currently nee...
£40000 - £45000 per annum + pension, healthcare,25 days: Ashdown Group: An est...
£28000 per annum: Ashdown Group: IT Software Application Support Analyst - Imm...