Mugabe collapse sparks speculation over his successor

The health of President Robert Mugabe is failing and he is positioning his favourite, Emmerson Mnangagwa, to take over, according to sources in Zimbabwe.

The 79-year-old president's health is said to have been deteriorating for several months, but speculation increased after reports that he collapsed at the weekend after attending a relative's wedding in southern Zimbabwe. Senior sources in Zanu-PF and his spy agency, the Central Intelligence Organisation (CIO) admitted that Mr Mugabe had recently suffered a minor stroke but said he had recovered after being treated by Chinese doctors.

They said the president regularly showed signs of stress and symptoms of epilepsy, which had caused him to collapse several times before.

"If it had been easy for him to impose Mnangagwa as his successor, I believe he might already have left," said one source in the ruling Zanu-PF party. "His greatest headache at the moment is to prepare the groundwork for the whole party to accept Mnangagwa before he quits."

A senior Zanu-PF official who asked not to be named said: "I don't think anyone, perhaps with the exception of his wife, can specify his exact medical problem, because I don't believe he shows his medical records to anyone. But he regularly shows signs that he is not well," .

The sources said the president accepted that his age and poor health prevented him carrying on, and that his efforts were now concentrated on ensuring the succession of Mr Mnangagwa, who is the Speaker in Zimbabwe's parliament. Mr Mugabe regards Mr Mnangagwa as his best insurance policy against future prosecution. As minister in charge of the CIO, he was a central figure when the regime eliminated an estimated 30,000 opponents in the early 1980s.

The president saved the hugely unpopular Mr Mnangagwa from political obscurity after he lost his parliamentary seat to an unknownopposition candidate in the June 2000 elections. After another seat was found for him, he was appointed parliamentary Speaker and elevated to the powerful post of Zanu-PF's secretary of administration, which in effect put him in charge of the day-to-day running of the party.

Mr Mnangagwa has been using the two positions to try to improve his standing in the party and entrench his status as "heir apparent" by purging opponents. "No one wants to cross his path at the moment," said a party official.

Reports that Mr Mugabe had been flown to South Africa for medical treatment have been denied by sources in Zimbabwe, which pointed out that the president was deeply suspicious of white South Africans in general and Zimbabwean exiles in particular. One of his main criticisms of his South African counterpart, Thabo Mbeki, they said, was that he was "too soft" on white people, allowing them too much sway in state institutions and in the running of the economy.

During his last official visit to South Africa, when he attended the funeral of the ANC veteran Walter Sisulu, Mr Mugabe refused to be served any food by staff at his luxury hotel in Johannesburg. Instead, he brought his own cooks and food with him and ate meals prepared for him in his suite.