South Africa hails big drop in murder rate

Experts said the 6.5 per cent drop in homicides could be the result of strict gun laws and better social provision

South Africa has shed its reputation as one of the most dangerous tourist destinations in the world, after independent experts endorsed official figures showing a dramatic fall in the number of murders.

But, while a 6.5 per cent drop in homicides over the year to March suggests the use of guns in townships has fallen, experts caution that white collar crime is on the rise. Reported rapes also rose, to more than 56,000.

The police minister, Nathi Mthethwa, was in upbeat mood as he released the statistics in Pretoria yesterday: "Victory against crime is now an achievable goal. Indeed the tide against crime is turning and [the] police, joined by society, are gaining the upper hand against vicious criminals," he said.

Yesterday's figure of 15,940 murders in the year to March puts South Africa in eighth position in the league of most dangerous nations – with a rate of 31.9 homicides per 100,000 people. Honduras tops the list with 78 murders per 100,000. In 1995, South Africa's murder rate was 67.9 per 100,000.

Experts could find no single reason for the decline, though several pointed to stringent new gun laws introduced in 2002. The drop in murders was accompanied by a 23.6 per cent fall in car hijackings.

South Africa's crime-infested image has not been helped by the murder of the Swedish-born engineer Anni Dewani, who was killed on her honeymoon after an apparent hijacking in a Cape township last November. Her husband, Shrien Dewani, recently lost his appeal against extradition from Britain for his alleged role in the killing and, subject to approval from the Home Secretary, will face trial in South Africa.

The country also has a poor conviction rate, especially for rape and violence against women. On Wednesday, in a trial in Cape Town that has lasted five years, two out of nine defendants were released for lack of evidence in the murder case of Zoliswa Nkonyana, who was stoned to death in a township in 2006.

Criminologists and authors, such as Jonny Steinberg and Anthony Altbecker, have pointed to poor police-community relations. Many South Africans see the police as being open to bribes and sometimes guilty of crime themselves.

Mr Mthethwa and the police commissioner, General Bheki Cele, are fighting their own court battle after being sued by a man who was wrongly arrested on his wedding day and held in a police cell for four days. Bossie Mahlangu was awarded compensation of 210,000 rand (£18,000) in February. But this has not been paid and last Monday the sheriff of the court confiscated eight police vehicles on behalf of the aggrieved groom.

President Jacob Zuma has increased spending on public order by an average 13 per cent annually over the past three years. South Africa's 190,000 police officers have a budget of more than 60bn rand (£5.2bn).

But Gareth Newham, head of the crime and justice programme at the Institute for Security Studies in Pretoria, believes social causes have had a greater impact on the decline in murder than changes in policing. "There is no correlation between the increase in the number of police officers and the reduction in murders. Other factors are more likely to be at work, such as the fact that 12 million South Africans are now receiving social grants, against four million in 1994," he said.

But Sean Tait of the African Policing Civilian Oversight Forum believed the government's increased focus on policing may have paid off. He also pointed out that the period covered by the last crime figures includes the three months of the 2010 World Cup when South Africans "were united in the desire to offer the world a fantastic, crime free experience, which is what happened."