After Wolfowitz: battle begins for control of World Bank

The search has begun in earnest for a successor to Paul Wolfowitz as head of the World Bank. But every sign is that despite widespread demands for change, the global lending institution's new president will once again be an American.

As the Bank's board met here to set in motion the nominating process, the European Commission in Brussels urged a quick appointment, stressing that the organisation needed "stable and strong political leadership". The White House announced that President Bush would soon name a candidate, to ensure "an orderly transition" that would allow the Bank to refocus on its mission of fighting poverty and promoting development.

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Technically Mr Wolfowitz is staying on until the end of June. But so disliked is he among staff that the institution will be leaderless, in effect, until a new president is installed, making the search for a replacement especially urgent.

But there was no indication that demands from aid groups and development specialists for a more open selection process, embracing candidates from all countries, would be met. Instead, as on every occasion since the Bank was set up in 1945, an incoming president will once again be an American citizen, according to unwritten custom chosen by the US government, the largest shareholder in the Bank.

The difference this time is that Henry Paulson, the US Treasury Secretary in charge of the process, will consult far more extensively than in the past.

Mr Wolfowitz, for instance, was named in 2005 with scant advance warning by the White House. But European countries then set aside their suspicions of a man who had been an ardent advocate of the Iraq invasion in the higher interest of mending fences with Washington. Two years on, Mr Bush's prestige is even lower, and his clout so diminished that he could but look on as Mr Wolfowitz was ousted on Thursday for breaking Bank ethics rules in arranging a handsome pay rise and promotion for his companion, Shaha Riza.

A variety of US names are circulating, among them Robert Kimmitt, a former US ambassador to Germany and currently Deputy Treasury Secretary, and Robert Zoellick, who served as US trade representative before a brief stint as deputy secretary of state under Condoleezza Rice. Another possible contender is Jim Leach, a much admired former congressman from Iowa, who lost his seat in last November's midterm elections. Also mentioned are Chuck Hagel, the independent-minded Republican senator for Nebraska, and even 79-year-old Paul Volcker, chairman of the Federal Reserve between 1979 and 1987.

Calls are growing, however, for the World Bank job be opened to allcomers. "The US and other rich countries must now show that they are serious about good governance," an Oxfam statement said, "by allowing the next head of the Bank to be appointed based on merit through an open, accountable process".

This raises a host of intriguing possibilities. "The world does not lack for competent, highly trained and experienced leaders," says Moises Naim, editor-in chief of Foreign Policy magazine and a former World Bank director. "Most of them just happen not to be American."

However improbable, most lists of non-American candidates start with Tony Blair - who, some would say, ranks as an honorary American after his unswerving support for President Bush. The outgoing Prime Minister has not evinced the slightest interest in the job, and in political terms his appointment is about as likely as Bill Clinton becoming secretary general of the UN.

Another frequently mentioned name is Stanley Fischer, a former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund and now governor of Israel's central bank. Mr Fischer has the advantage too of joint US-Israeli citizenship. In that sense he would follow the precedent of James Wolfensohn, Mr Wolfowitz's Australian-born predecessor who was naturalised a US citizen at the age of 46. But whether an Israeli could head an institution like the Bank is questionable.

Other possibilities from emerging economies abound. Among them are Montek Singh Ahluwalia, an Oxford-educated former official at the IMF who as deputy chairman of India's planning commission has played a major part in that country's economic reforms. Also mentioned are Trevor Manuel, the South African Finance Minister, and Kemal Dervish, a technocrat with a proven record as a senior World Bank official and then as Turkey's economic minister.

The position of the US Attorney General, Alberto Gonzales, looks increasingly shaky as growing numbers of senators from both parties voice demands for his resignation over his role in the firing of Democratic prosecutors. Democrats have said they will table a non-binding vote of no confidence and on ThursdayNorm Coleman became the fifth Republican senator to demand that he leave.

Who's in the running?

ROBERT KIMMITT

Deputy Secretary of the US Treasury since August 2005, he is a decorated war veteran and former ambassador to Germany with decades of government experience. But his experience with development issues is sketchy.

ROBERT ZOELLICK

Another glittering résumé as US Trade Representative from 2001 until 2005, and then Deputy Secretary of State from 2005 to 2006. But is he prepared to give up the good life at Goldman Sachs?

TONY BLAIR

It sounds too good to be true - and probably is. He is George Bush's trustiest ally, who has focused on development issues and Africa. But his passport is British, and the World Bank doesn't pay like the lecture circuit.

TREVOR MANUEL

The South African Finance Minister since 1996, he is admired for his competence, political skills and record fighting apartheid. He has first hand knowledge of African issues. But there's that passport problem.

Femme fatale or feminist? Woman at the heart of row

To her critics she is the femme fatale who inveigled her way into the heart of the Washington establishment. Her supporters prefer to portray her as a staunch Arab feminist who is the real victim of a smear campaign designed to bring down an unpopular head of the World Bank.

The truth, of course, lies somewhere between these two extreme characterisations of Shaha Riza, a 53- year-old senior bank official whose relationship with Paul Wolfowitz, president of the World Bank, has brought the world's media to her front door. Shaha Riza was born in Tripoli to a wealthy Libyan father and a Syrian-Saudi mother. Her exposure to the strict Islamic cultures of Tunisia and Saudi Arabia, to where her father's business interests led the family, left an indelible impression on her political outlook.

But it was only later, when her parents settled in Britain, that she was able to give any purpose to her support for democracy and women's rights. Ms Riza, who is fluent in English, Arabic, French, Italian and Turkish, studied at the London School of Economics in the 1970s before taking a master's degree in international relations at St Anthony's College, Oxford.

It was there that she met her husband, Bulent Ali Riza, a Turkish Cypriot who heads the Turkish programme at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). Afterwards, the couple moved to America, had a child, and then split up. Ms Riza continued in politics, making her mark in the Washington world of international think-tanks and institutes.

For a while, she worked for the Iraq Foundation, set up by expatriates to overthrow Saddam Hussein after the 1990-91 Gulf War, and later joined the National Endowment for Democracy, created by President Reagan to promote American ideals. In 1997 she went to work for the World Bank, whose primary role is to fight global poverty. She is believed to have started dating Mr Wolfowitz long before George Bush made him president of the bank.

But even before the current scandal the knives were out for the couple. Two years ago, stories started to appear in the US press about how Mr Wolfowitz had become besotted with a mysterious Arab feminist who, so the stories claimed, had helped to persuade him for the case of military intervention in Iraq. Her former husband, Bulent Riza, told one newspaper at the time that his ex-wife started to "talk to Paul" about reforming the Middle East.

Despite this growing interest in the couple they were able to keep a low profile. But, as opposition to the new World Bank president grew, the media spotlight intensified and Ms Riza's relationship with Mr Wolfowitz became a means of undermining him. Throughout this time Ms Riza has kept her own counsel, declining invitations to give her account of their relationship and his role in the advancement of her career.

However, the formal inquiry launched by the bank into the potential conflict has permitted Ms Riza finally to defend herself publicly. She has told the inquiry she believes she is the victim of a political witch-hunt.

By Robert Verkaik