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Bush changes his tactics after Gore consolidates lead

Mary Dejevsky
Friday 08 September 2000 00:00 BST
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Vice-President Al Gore has solidified his advantage in the race for the White House, opening up a small, but significant lead over his Republican opponent, according to polls out yesterday. With two months to go before polling day, the findings were the first hard evidence that Mr Gore has succeeded in turning the tables after months of lagging behind George W Bush.

Vice-President Al Gore has solidified his advantage in the race for the White House, opening up a small, but significant lead over his Republican opponent, according to polls out yesterday. With two months to go before polling day, the findings were the first hard evidence that Mr Gore has succeeded in turning the tables after months of lagging behind George W Bush.

"Yeah, I'm the underdog," Mr Bush said during a campaign stop in Detroit. "But I was the underdog when I first started and nothing has changed in that underdog status."

One change he did acknowledge, however. Bombarded with advice, private and public, from senior Republicans fearful that they could lose the White House once again, Mr Bush promised to adjust his campaign, "sell" his policies more aggressively and conduct more town-hall-style meetings with voters. Some changes in his largely home-grown Texas staff were also forecast.

Initially, Mr Bush had been openly resentful of advice, accusing his critics of being panicky Washingtonians, "nervous" and "ready to jump out of the foxhole before the first shell is fired". By yesterday afternoon, however, his advisers implied changes were already in train. "We're listening," said his spokeswoman, Karen Hughes. And Mr Bush hinted that he was now open to a compromise on the formal televised debates he had earlier seemed keen to avoid.

The polls - by Zogby for Reuters, and by Gallup for USA Today and CNN - were both taken in the three days from this week's Labor Day holiday, traditionally seen as the official start of the campaign and the point at which a majority of American voters start to take notice. Past practice shows that any candidate who has a strong lead after Labor Day is tipped to win. To the evident relief of the Bush camp, however, Mr Gore's lead was smaller than the 10 points flagged in last week's Newsweek poll.

Reuters/Zogby found Mr Gore leading Mr Bush, by 6 points, (46 to 40), with the Green Party candidate, Ralph Nader, holding steady at 5 per cent and Pat Buchanan for the Reform Party languishing at just 2 per cent. Mr Gore's lead was comfortably, but not irretrievably, outside the 3.5 per cent margin of error.

Gallup gave Mr Gore a lead of 3 points (47-44) with Mr Nader at 3 points and Mr Buchanan at 2. Because of their samples (of likely, not registered, voters) and their three-day (not two-day) span, both polls are regarded as more accurate than the Newsweek poll, although the trend is clearly the same.

The polls also found that Mr Gore's new support came largely from women and some "independent" voters. One intriguing feature was the evidence of a massive gender gap. Reuters/Zogby found Mr Gore enjoying a 21 point lead among women, and Mr Bush an 11-point lead among men. Together, the numbers showed an unprecedented 32-point discrepancy.

Aside from his growing female following, the particularly good news for Mr Gore is the continued rise in his support since the Democratic Party's convention last month; Mr Bush's post-convention surge started to fade just a week after his convention. The last Reuters/Zogby poll, taken two weeks ago, just after the Democratic convention, showed Mr Gore with a lead of 3 points.

While Mr Bush was conceding the need for changes in his campaign, there was also said to be some relief in his camp that the polls were not more conclusive than they were. The Gore lead is not sufficient to forecast his victory, and the race could still be one of the closest for 40 years. But the pressure is now on Mr Bush with only limited time left to catch up.

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