Jitters as John McCain slips back in swing states

Alarm is spreading through the ranks of the Republican Party over John McCain and his prospects for victory one month from election day. New polls show him slipping not just nationally against Barack Obama but also in nearly all the key battleground states that will decide the result. And Missouri, a traditional bellwether in presidential elections, is among them. Bedtime for Mrs Palin would have to wait.

A new CNN/Time poll shows Mr Obama one point ahead in the so-called Show-Me state, a statistically insignificant margin, but telling nonetheless; hitherto Mr McCain has been ahead in 19 out of 22 surveys of the state taken since last year. "Missouri is where it almost always is, and that's too close to call," said Claire McCaskill, a senator from Missouri and an adviser to Mr Obama.

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The numbers in other swing states are more startling, however. The survey showed Mr Obama leading Mr McCain 54 per cent to 43 per cent in Minnesota; 51 per cent to 47 per cent in Nevada, and 53 per cent to 44 per cent in Virginia. A Quinnipiac University poll showed the Democrat overtaking his rival in Florida, 51 to 43 per cent, and Ohio, 50 to 42 per cent. Both states could be critical on 4 November. All the polls were taken in the wake of the first McCain-Obama debate last Friday night.

Partly it is the new focus on the economy that is clobbering Mr McCain. "The economic crisis has changed the dynamic that only three weeks ago favoured McCain," said Peter Brown, at Quinnipiac. "It doesn't mean that McCain can't win. It just means that history says he has a steep uphill climb."

No wonder then that the pressure on Mrs Palin last night was more intense than ever, not least because of growing evidence that she has become a drag on her ticket. Only a good performance in St Louis– or at least something better than her recent media interviews – might restore her lustre. According to an ABC News survey, one in three voters is less likely to vote for Mr McCain because of Mrs Palin.

"I don't like some of the completely conservative views of Palin," admitted Todd Herren, at the Anheuser-Busch headquarters in St Louis. "Some of what she has been saying is crazy to me."

Mr Herren and a co-worker, Chad Fischer, reflected the ambivalence of the state as a whole. "I am 50-50 between them right now," said Mr Herren, 48. Mr Fischer was also in a quandary. "It's right down to the wire for me," he said. Mr Obama had impressed more than he had expected last week, but his "Muslim connections" bothered him. Both men say the ethnicity of Mr Obama was of no consequence to them, however.

Getting ready to drive the vintage trolley that takes tourists around the historic factory, Larry Jost, 58, is pretty confident that he will tick the ballot for Mr Obama but does not know about the rest of the state. "There are a lot of conservatives in this state and I do think in the end it will go for Mr McCain," he said.

Missouri is important, not least because historically it almost always votes with the victor. But it is only one of nine states now considered a "toss-up" by the US news website Real Clear Politics. As of now, polls show that seven of those nine are leaning Democratic.