Kerry takes early lead in Democrat race

He had surgery for prostate cancer earlier this month, and was conspicuous by his absence from several key party events. But by common consent, Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts is emerging as the early leader in the chase for the 2004 Democratic presidential nomination, which could be decided less than a year from now.

The label of frontrunner is a dubious distinction, at this stage generated by polls and media attention rather than deeds. But if buzz is the yardstick, Mr Kerry, who has been given a clean bill of health by his doctors, is ahead.

He has enlisted high-quality campaign aides, and he has a strong legislative record and plenty of money. Long profiles have appeared in magazines such as The New Yorker. Only yesterday The New York Times proclaimed: "Kerry emerges as a frontrunner."

If so, a fierce battle lies ahead. Mr Kerry already has seven declared rivals. Three of them are genuine heavyweights: the vastly experienced former House minority leader Dick Gephardt; Senator Joe Lieberman of Connecticut, who was Al Gore's running mate in 2000; and John Edwards, Senator for North Carolina, young, photogenic and widely seen as best placed to prevent a repeat of President Bush's sweep of the South three years ago.

Three rank outsiders are also in the field: the Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich, ex-senator Carol Moseley-Braun of Illinois, who is bidding to be the first woman President, and the firebrand civil rights activist the Rev Al Sharpton.

In addition there is a potentially dangerous wild card – Howard Dean, a former governor of Vermont. Mr Dean is little known but he has a strong record on health care. He is also the current darling of many party activists because of his opposition to war with Iraq. Mr Kerry and the three other "top-tier" candidates all broadly back Mr Bush on that issue.

The field may yet grow further. A couple of other senior senators, Joseph Biden of Delaware and Bob Graham of Florida, are thinking of running. So are the former Colorado senator and presidential candidate Gary Hart and the retired general Wesley Clark.

But they have little time to make up their minds. So compressed is the primary calendar that the race may in effect be over by late February 2004. A war-chest of up to $20m (£12m) is vital – and Mr Kerry has been quickest out of the gates in the "silent primary" of fund-raising.

Moreover, the $600m fortune his wife, Theresa, inherited from her late husband, the grocery magnate John Heinz,, gives Mr Kerry a huge advantage. He alone has the resources, it is argued, to match what promises to be a very well-funded Bush campaign in 2004. And he is well placed on key national security issues to take on Mr Bush. He boasts a strong record on foreign affairs and intelligence, and he is a decorated Vietnam veteran – unlike the President, who avoided service in that war.

His main disadvantages are an aloof manner, vagueness on certain issues and the fact that since John F Kennedy 43 years ago, every successful Democratic presidential candidate has come from the South.

The Republicans will do their utmost to tag Mr Kerry with the same label of Northeastern liberal that helped to scupper the White House campaign of Michael Dukakis, a former Massachusetts governor, against George Bush Snr in 1988. Mr Kerry, who served as lieutenant governor under Mr Dukakis, has a broadly liberal stance on domestic isssues and opposes the death penalty.