Gripping night gives new advantage to Obama

Barack Obama scored a resounding victory in North Carolina last night but very narrowly lost the state of Indiana to Hillary Clinton after a cliff-hanger night of counting votes. She finally squeaked by a bare two percentage points or about 22,000 votes.

The split outcome will mean that the struggle of the Democratic nomination is not over yet. It will give cause for relief and for frustration in each of the camps - as well as grief for the party’s hierarchy which frets that the longer the slug-fest between them continues the better it is for the Republicans.

Clearly, however, the night was better for Mr Obama. He desperately needed to capture a big state – and decisively – after weeks of campaign stumbles. And because North Carolina, which he took by a healthy 56-42 percentage point margin, offered more convention delegates than Indiana, it will reinforce his critical delegate lead and make the mathematics for Mrs Clinton more prohibitive than ever.

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Had he also won Indiana, he would have had the chance finally to force Mrs Clinton from the race. That did not happen, but he has nonetheless clearly come through the furore over his past association with the Reverend Wright less damaged than some imagined. And superdelegates are likely to take notice.

On a day of record turnouts, exit poll numbers suggested that Mr Obama had won the support of nine out of ten African American voters in North Carolina, a remarkable margin. It appeared that Mrs Clinton attracted the support of only 6 per cent of African Americans. Yet, there was evidence also that Mr Obama was still struggling to reach out to white working class voters, particularly in Indiana.

As the wee hours approached, it was the results from Indiana that began to draw the most fevered attention. Exit polls showed roughly half of all voters in the state saying that their impressions of Mr Obama had been affected by the Reverend Wright flap. The 51-49 per cent win for Mrs Clinton in the state only came in well past the midnight hour.

The former first lady, flanked by husband Bill and daughter Chelsea, declared victory in Indiana even before the final result was in before supporters in the Murat Center – an eccentric Moorish castle – in Indianapolis. Her aides said even a narrow win in Indiana would allow her to continue her fight for the nomination, even though her chances of closing the delegate gap would remain nigh impossible.

“Thanks to you, it’s full speed to the White House” she boldly told the crowd. Parts of her speech betrayed an almost wistful tone, however, perhaps suggesting that she too knew that her options for winning had become narrower than ever. “I know that people - people are watching this race, and they're wondering, I win, he wins, I win, he wins. It's so close,” she said.

Speaking to his supporters in North Carolina, Mr Obama congratulated Mrs Clinton on her showing in Indiana. But he went on: “You know, there are those who were saying that North Carolina would be a game changer in this election. But today what North Carolina decided is that the only game that needs changing is the one in Washington, D.C.”

The frenzy was an unusual experience for Hoosiers, as Indiana residents are often called. Because they vote so late in the state-by-state process, it has been forty years since a primary here has mattered for anything. It was no wonder so many of them voted, including many Republicans, some of whom said they had picked Mrs Clinton partly to help prolong the Democratic Party’s agony.

In this Titanic struggle, both camps know that after yesterday the last six primary contests still remaining will in all likelihood do little to change the mathematics of the race. Barring one or other candidate suffering an unexpected calamity, they are expected to capture three of those states each.

The pressure was perhaps fiercest for Mrs Clinton. Her dream before last night was to score a double-win that would have crystallised worries among party elders that Mr Obama may not have what it takes to take on John McCain, the Republican nominee in November. But as North Carolina tipped decisively into the Obama column that dream had clearly been dashed.

But squinting at the Indiana returns as they trickled in Mrs Clinton dared hope she had avoided the calamity of a double-loss. She is almost certain to calculate this morning she did well enough to hang on. Today she will begin to focus more than ever on persuading remaining uncommitted superdelegates to come to her side. They will be her only hope of vaulting past Mr Obama for the crown.

Yet, her arguments to the superdelegates may seem more threadbare, not least because of the extraordinary collapse of support for her among African Americans, who will be a key constituency in November. As for Mr Obama and his white-vote problems, in South Carolina he appeared in fact to have prevailed among white voters under the age of sixty five.

The game had already started last night with her campaign manager, Geoff Garin, attempting to redefine the parameters of the contest by suggesting that the winning post for the nomination should no longer be 2,025 delegates over all (both the supers and those won in primary and caucus races) but 2,208. He reaches that new figure by including delegates from Michigan and Florida, the two states who were disqualified from the process by party leaders because they broke the rules by voting earlier than allowed.

“That’s what we believe is the standard for deciding this - who has the majority of the total delegates including Michigan and Florida to decide the nomination,” he insisted.

His remarks were a reminder that the Michigan-Florida quandary is not resolved and may quickly consume the Democratic Party. But they were fiercely refuted by one Obama supporter, Allan Katz, a member of the party’s national committee. “When you totally ignore the rules, letting these people change the outcome, that doesn’t pass the straight-face test,” he argued.

Another possible game-changing event might be the delivery of word from on high in the party on the best choice, for instance from Al Gore. But Mr Gore has shown no inclination so far to get involved.

Similarly reticent has been John Edwards. Once a contender himself he is from North Carolina, yet he made not attempt to influence voters there. Yesterday, indeed, he told People magazine that he will sit the process out and offer neither candidate his endorsement. On Mr Obama, however, he said: “I think he really does want to bring about serious change and a different way of doing things.” As for Mrs Clinton, he offered: “I think her tenacity shows a real strength that’s insider her.”

Of the six states still waiting for the chance to vote, West Virginia, Puerto Rico and Kentucky are all expected to plump for Mrs Clinton. But Mr Obama is likely in turn to capture Oregon, South Dakota, and Montana . Even if Mrs Clinton were to win all these states by big margins, she could not come close to equaling Mr Obama’s delegate numbers.

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