The white working-class voters who have been sending Republican candidates to the White House for a generation seem to have turned their backs on John McCain as the economic crisis deepens.
The Arizona Senator has seen his lead among those voters, who make up about half of the US electorate and are often called the "Reagan Democrats", whittled down to 11 points from 18 during the past two weeks, according to the latest Wall Street Journal/NBC poll. That has translated into an overallsix-point lead nationally for Barack Obama, whereas not long ago, the presidential race was essentially tied.
With just four weeks to go until election day, CNN polling in the battleground states of Ohio, Wisconsin, North Carolina and New Hampshire showed Mr Obama making strides. The Democrat's lead was greatest in New Hampshire, at 53 points to 45, eight points up compared to the five-point lead he had a month ago. Only in Indiana was Mr McCain ahead of his opponent, by a margin of 51 to 46.
"Many white, male, high school educated, blue-collar workers are now saying 'I don't really like Obama but I'm voting Democrat," said Larry Sabato, head at the Centre for Politics at the University of Virginia. "Just now these voters are frightened by the state of the economy and their disappearing pension funds which are mostly locked up in the stock market. But there are 26 days to the election. Anything can swing this back, just look at what happened in Spain with the terrorist bombings," said Mr Sabato.
Democratic organisers, who have watched in dismay over the years as these voters turned out to support Republican candidates because of issues such as gun control, abortion and religion, are cautiously optimistic. "I think they may come back this time," said Robert Borosage, who runs the progressive Institute for America's Future organisation. "The disastrous economic policies of George Bush mean that these voters are paying less attention to the Republican story of cultural issues, race and national security this time," he said, "but we won't really know until they get to the polling booths."
As the campaign enters the final straight, there has been a huge surge of activity behind the scenes to register voters. The deadline in many states was midnight on Monday. The unions have been signing up about 50,000 a week. In the key state of Ohio, where so many recent elections have been decided, the Working America organisation's 800,000 members could make up 10 per cent of the electorate, and could tilt the balance in favour of the Democrats.
Electoral rolls have expanded by about four million voters in a dozen key states in the past year, according to some estimates. In Florida, Democratic new voter registrations are double those of the Republicans. And, in the Republican stronghold of North Carolina, the ratio is even greater at six to one.
Republicans have been shy about organising registration drives because so many young voters in particular have already declared their hands for the Obama ticket. Instead Republicans are preparing to make legal challenges across the country if polling booths are overwhelmed by first-time voters. In Ohio, for example, it is possible to register and vote on the same day. And Republicans complain bitterly that could lead to widespread voter fraud because there is not enough time to verify registration information before ballots are cast.
The challenge now facing the Obama camp is to get all their registered voters to the polls come 4 November. "The machine that has been put in place by the Democrats is effective, they have a lot of people holding clipboards," said Brian Krolicki, the Republican lieutenant governor of Nevada, told the Washington Post. But he added: "There's a difference between successful registration and a groundswell. It's mechanics versus momentum."
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