On election eve, Obama has a slim lead in polls

 

President Barack Obama held a slim advantage in national and battleground polls going into Election Day as the candidates made their last mad dashes across swing-state America and their campaigns braced for a day of intense battle — and the legal fights that may follow.

A Washington Post-ABC News tracking poll showed Obama at 50 percent to Republican challenger Mitt Romney's 47 percent. That is Obama's best showing since July and a reversal of the three-percentage-point edge Romney held last month.

Elsewhere, new polls showed the president up by small margins in Ohio, Virginia and New Hampshire, three states that could determine the election by themselves.

For both campaigns, Monday was filled with the hard work — and the head fakes, rumors and spun-up bravado — that are traditional on an election eve. Volunteers called numbers they'd already called. They rapped on doors they'd already knocked on.

Romney announced that he would campaign into Election Day, visiting Pennsylvania and Ohio, in a gesture of either confidence or concern.

"If anyone wants to know where the energy is — if anyone out there that's following American politics wants to know where the energy is — just come right here in this room and you'll see it," the Republican told a crowd at George Mason University in Fairfax County, Va.

Obama finished his campaign on Monday with rallies in Wisconsin, Ohio and Iowa. His traveling aides wore fleeces with his 2008 campaign logo and talked confidently of the president's multiple paths to winning 270 electoral votes a second time.

In Madison, Wis., Obama rallied a crowd of 18,000 in front of the state Capitol, saying the time was nigh for his supporters to help keep him in the White House.

"If you're willing to work with me again, and knock on some doors with me, make some phone calls for me, turn out for me, we'll win Wisconsin," Obama said. "We'll win this election. We'll finish what we started."

In two key swing states, the parties spent Monday battling over voting procedures. In Florida, the state Democratic Party asked a judge to order an extension of early voting, after an early-voting center near Miami shut down temporarily on Sunday with a line outside.

Afterward, Florida Democrats said, election officials in South Florida made it easier to cast in-person absentee ballots. The party said officials in the heavily Democratic counties of Broward, Palm Beach and Miami-Dade were allowing voters to cast absentee ballots Monday.

In Ohio, there were ominous signs that the election might not be settled for days. On Monday, a federal judge there set a hearing for Wednesday to decide how the state should count certain provisional ballots.

These ballots, which are issued to voters whose eligibility is in question, are set aside and counted later. If Ohio's vote comes down to these ballots, the outcome will be delayed during a 10-day review period.

A look at early-voting data in key swing states seems to show a Democratic advantage — although not nearly as big as the one Obama enjoyed four years ago.

In Iowa, Democrats won the early vote by 18 points in 2008. This year, they lead it by 10. In Florida, the Democrats' four-point edge is less than their nine-point margin of four years ago.

The pattern repeats in many key states, where Democrats' early-vote edge is four to eight points less than it was in 2008. Given that Obama won the popular vote in 2008 by about seven points, that would suggest a neck-and-neck race.

By Monday, the most expensive general election in U.S. history was winding down. In some states, political commercials were airing at a rate of more than 50,000 spots a day, according to media tracking data. In some places, in fact, there was no more room on the air.

So, without ad slots to buy, conservative groups began placing commercials in deep-blue states such as California and New York.

On Tuesday, the country's first polls will open at 6 a.m. in some East Coast states, including Virginia (they open an hour later in Maryland and the District). The last ones will close 19 hours later, at 8 p.m. local time in Alaska's Aleutian Islands.

By then, we might finally know the outcome. This is the basic math of the race: Seven states are considered tossups. To win the White House, Romney needs to win at least four of them, including the biggest, Florida.

Obama has more options. He could secure reelection with just one of these states — Florida. Or he could win with several combinations of two, such as Ohio and Wisconsin, or Ohio and Virginia. This assumes Romney doesn't pull off an upset somewhere unexpected, such as Pennsylvania.

"We've said we see many different paths to 270 [electoral votes], and all those different paths are still there today that we saw a year ago," David Axelrod, a top strategist for Obama's campaign, told reporters Monday. "That's the difference between the campaigns."

On Monday, the two campaigns did what they had been doing for months: calling and canvassing. They weren't giving up.

"After the ninth, 10th, 11th call, I really feel for them," said Antonette Smith, a volunteer in Colorado for the conservative group Americans for Prosperity who had been dialing up beleaguered swing-state voters all morning. It was Smith's last day at an "action center" in a suburban office park. She said she came as much for her own sanity as anything else.

Smith, 50, who was laid off in May from a health-care marketing group, said it was too hard to sit home alone for the campaign's final hours. She thinks this election could turn the economy around.

"I want to be with people. This is very personal for me," Smith said, her eyes filling with tears. "My daughter needs a new pair of jeans."

In Wisconsin, Romney volunteer Dick Farrell went looking for votes in the oldest-fashioned way: knocking on doors. He had a clipboard with the names of likely Romney voters. And he had a script in which he was supposed to ask whether someone had voted, and if not, what time Tuesday they planned to head to the polls.

As the day went on, Farrell knocked a lot, and the homeowners answered only a little. He didn't seem convinced that this was a great use of time.

"There isn't much to this, is there?" he asked, squinting at house numbers, looking for the next one on his list. But campaign workers "say this is really important," Farrell said, "and I'm taking their word for it."

Then, in one of the last houses on Stardust Street in Waukesha, he found one: an actual undecided voter. After 523 days and $3 billion worth of campaigning, the gray-faced man behind the door hadn't made up his mind.

He told Farrell that he'd voted for Obama last time. This time, however, he wasn't sure if he'd do it again. Wasn't sure, actually, if he'd vote at all.

"There's too much to know," the man told Farrell, "and I don't know it."

"Well," Farrell said as a spitting rain began to fall on the quiet street, "I think about the debt, and I'd encourage you to vote for Romney . . . either way, I hope you vote."

The man thanked him, and Farrell made another mark on his clipboard.

---

Jenna Johnson in Iowa; Steve Hendrix in Colorado; Emily Heil in Wisconsin; Craig Timberg, David Nakamura and Philip Rucker in Ohio; and Dan Eggen and Bill Turque in Washington contributed to this report.

Start your day with The Independent, sign up for daily news emails
PROMOTED VIDEO
Have you tried new the Independent Digital Edition apps?
ebooks
ebooksA year of political gossip, levity and intrigue from the sharpest pen in Westminster
Latest stories from i100
Have you tried new the Independent Digital Edition apps?
Independent Dating
and  

By clicking 'Search' you
are agreeing to our
Terms of Use.

iJobs Job Widget
iJobs General

Tradewind Recruitment: English Teacher

Negotiable: Tradewind Recruitment: This post arises as a result of the need to...

Tradewind Recruitment: Class Teacher Required ASAP In Uminster

£120 - £150 per annum: Tradewind Recruitment: I am recruiting on instruction o...

Ashdown Group: Head of Finance - Financial Director - London - £70,000

£70000 per annum: Ashdown Group: Head of Finance - Financial Controller - Fina...

Ashdown Group: Marketing Executive - Wimbledon, SW London

£24000 - £28000 per annum + benefits: Ashdown Group: Marketing Executive - Wim...

Day In a Page

Greece elections: In times like these, the EU has far more dangerous adversaries than Syriza

Greece elections

In times like these, the EU has far more dangerous adversaries than Syriza, says Patrick Cockburn
Holocaust Memorial Day: Nazi victims remembered as spectre of prejudice reappears

Holocaust Memorial Day

Nazi victims remembered as spectre of prejudice reappears over Europe
Fortitude and the Arctic attraction: Our fascination with the last great wilderness

Magnetic north

The Arctic has always exerted a pull, from Greek myth to new thriller Fortitude. Gerard Gilbert considers what's behind our fascination with the last great wilderness
Homeless Veterans appeal: Homeless in Wales can find inspiration from Daniel’s story

Homeless Veterans appeal

Homeless in Wales can find inspiration from Daniel’s story
Front National family feud? Marine Le Pen and her relatives clash over French far-right party's response to Paris terror attacks

Front National family feud?

Marine Le Pen and her relatives clash over French far-right party's response to Paris terror attacks
Pot of gold: tasting the world’s most expensive tea

Pot of gold

Tasting the world’s most expensive tea
10 best wildlife-watching experiences: From hen harriers to porpoises

From hen harriers to porpoises: 10 best wildlife-watching experiences

While many of Britain's birds have flown south for the winter, it's still a great time to get outside for a spot of twitching
Nick Easter: 'I don’t want just to hold tackle bags, I want to be out there'

'I don’t want just to hold tackle bags, I want to be out there'

Nick Easter targeting World Cup place after England recall
DSK, Dodo the Pimp, and the Carlton Hotel

The inside track on France's trial of the year

Dominique Strauss-Kahn, Dodo the Pimp, and the Carlton Hotel:
As provocative now as they ever were

Sarah Kane season

Why her plays are as provocative now as when they were written
Murder of Japanese hostage has grim echoes of a killing in Iraq 11 years ago

Murder of Japanese hostage has grim echoes of another killing

Japanese mood was against what was seen as irresponsible trips to a vicious war zone
Syria crisis: Celebrities call on David Cameron to take more refugees as one young mother tells of torture by Assad regime

Celebrities call on David Cameron to take more Syrian refugees

One young mother tells of torture by Assad regime
The enemy within: People who hear voices in their heads are being encouraged to talk back – with promising results

The enemy within

People who hear voices in their heads are being encouraged to talk back
'In Auschwitz you got used to anything'

'In Auschwitz you got used to anything'

Survivors of the Nazi concentration camp remember its horror, 70 years on
Autumn/winter menswear 2015: The uniforms that make up modern life come to the fore

Autumn/winter menswear 2015

The uniforms that make up modern life come to the fore