US elections: The Republican race is over - and so is the Democratic one

To have any chance of overtaking Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders needs to win every remaining primary by a wide margin

Hillary Clinton plans to campaign in California this week (AP)

With the Republican presidential race all over bar the shouting, it is Hillary Clinton – once considered the most presumptive of nominees – who must fight on against an insurgent challenger. Her rival for the Democratic nomination, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, shed hundreds of his campaign staff last week, but he has vowed to throw his remaining resources into an attempted upset in the California primary on 7 June.

In spite of Mr Sanders’s slim victory in Indiana on Tuesday, the maths of the Democratic race is essentially unchanged. As she edged ever closer to the nomination, Ms Clinton said yesterday that she was “focused on moving into the general election” against Donald Trump. Mr Sanders picked up 43 delegates from the Hoosier State and Ms Clinton 37, maintaining her pledged delegate lead of more than 300 – and an overall lead of 802, including super-delegates.

Mr Sanders has admitted that he faces an “uphill fight” on a “narrow path toward victory”. His route is as steep and unforgiving as the South face of Annapurna. To have any chance of overtaking the frontrunner, he would have to win every remaining primary by significant margins. The largest left in the calendar are California and New Jersey; polls put Ms Clinton well ahead in both states, by around 10 and 15 points respectively, according to Real Clear Politics.

Until Ted Cruz suspended his campaign yesterday, the Golden State was bracing itself for a major GOP clash. Now, the Democrats are the only game in town. The Clinton campaign is leaving nothing to chance. Ms Clinton’s husband, former President Bill Clinton, was due to host organising events in San Diego and Los Angeles on Wednesday, to be followed by California rallies with the former Secretary of State herself on Thursday on Friday.

In an unspoken acknowledgement of his diminishing chances, Mr Sanders’s rhetoric has shifted perceptibly away from Ms Clinton to focus on pressing his progressive agenda. Speaking after his Indiana win, he noted that he had consistently won the support of younger voters. “That is important because it tells me that the ideas that we are fighting for are the ideas for the future of America and the future of the Democratic Party,” he said.

The Sanders campaign has said it can keep Ms Clinton from the outright majority of 2,383 pledged delegates that she needs to claim the nomination ahead of the Democratic convention in Philadelphia in July. But to win a floor-fight in Philly, Mr Sanders would also have to flip many of the party’s super-delegates, who so far overwhelmingly back Ms Clinton.

Given the likelihood of a bruising battle with Mr Trump, the Vermont Senator will be under pressure to withdraw before the convention in the interests of party unity. He and his supporters have also clung to the claim that he would be the stronger general election candidate – he polls better than Ms Clinton in hypothetical match-ups with Mr Trump.

But that point, too, may be moot: either Democrat will begin the general election with a significant poll advantage over the race-baiting businessman. A national CNN/ORC poll conducted after the Indiana result found the former Secretary of State leading Mr Trump by 13 points. Speaking to MSNBC, Ms Clinton warned of “a tough campaign against a candidate who will literally say or do anything,” but added: “We’re going to take him on at every turn."