US warms to left-winger set to win power in Brazil

Luiz Inacio "Lula" da Silva is expected to win the final round of Brazil's presidential elections by a landslide on Sunday, a victory that would install the country's first working-class leader and could mark a dramatic turning point in relations between Latin America's biggest power and the US.

American business interests have historically favoured conservative governments, even military dictators, and have obstructed to the point of sabotage any populist attempts to redistribute Brazil's vast wealth. Now, for the first time, international capital and finance looks set to think the unthinkable and co-operate for the first time with a man who has fought four presidential campaigns on behalf of the impoverished underclass.

Opinion polls in the last days of campaign give the former lathe operator and trade union leader 66 per cent of the vote. His nearest rival, the moderate conservative Jose Serra is predicted to win 34 per cent. Two left-leaning candidates who between them totted up 25 per cent in the first round, Anthony Garotinho and Ciro Gomes, have each pledged their support for Mr Da Silva, who is commonly known as Lula.

More surprising, even astonishing, is the backing for Mr Da Silva from some of Brazil's most prominent right wingers. Antonio Carlos Magalhaes, a former president of the senate and an undisputed coronel, or political boss,of the vast north-eastern state of Bahia, has pledged his support. So too has Paulo Maluf, a heavyweight in the sprawling industrial metropolis of Sao Paulo. Mr Maluf, a venerable right-wing dinosaur held several government posts in the military dictatorships of the 1970s and 80s and long opposed Mr Da Silva's Workers Party (PT). "The PT has changed and matured," Mr Maluf said, in a volte-face that left many of his own supporters dumbstruck.

Even the Americans are making approving noises. Otto Reich, the US Secretary of State for relations with Latin America, said that because Brazil was "an important partner for Washington" and "a great democracy", the US promised "to work with the president that the Brazilians choose". The country was "a foundation stone for the Latin American economy", he said.

Beneath these conciliatory words lies the crude reality that free market policies and austerity measures urged upon the moderate conservative president Fernando Henrique Cardoso by international investors have done nothing to boost growth, create jobs, curb inflation or control the debt. Such measures have instead brought the country to the brink of bankruptcy.

Millions of slum dwellers, jobless and landless agricultural labourers have long looked to Mr Da Silva as their saviour. Brazil's once extensive and prosperous middle class, squeezed to the point of ruin, has turned in their desperation to the champion of the poor. Finally, as Mr Da Silva's once fiery language moderated and the crisis worsened, even big capital concluded that he is the only credible alternative.

With so much riding on his success, it is hardly surprising that Mr Da Silva tried to damp down expectations in the closing days of the campaign. "I'm going to build a government that reflects the opinion of ordinary people, but please don't expect miracles," he warned a rally in Rio de Janeiro.