Vice-presidents: Behind every good candidate...

... is a strong running-mate. As Mitt Romney closes in on a sidekick, Rupert Cornwell reflects on a choice that could decide his campaign's fate

view gallery VIEW GALLERY

Lifting the veil on one of American politics' most hermetic procedures, Mitt Romney has declared that, contrary to some speculation, he is indeed considering the popular Florida senator Marco Rubio as a possible running mate in November.

Media outlets had reported that the 41-year-old Mr Rubio had not made the expected Republican nominee's vice-presidential shortlist. But during a campaign stop in Michigan, Mr Romney said the story was "entirely false" and that "Marco Rubio is being thoroughly vetted as part of our process."

That Mr Rubio has been under consideration is no secret. He is a hero of conservatives and the Tea Party movement – constituencies that have been wary of Mr Romney in the past. A Hispanic from Florida, he might help sway an ever-more important voting group put off by the candidate's hardline views on immigration.

Then there is the small matter of Mr Rubio's home state, a key prize in November with 29 electoral college votes of the 270 needed to win.

Whether he will be on Mr Romney's final shortlist is less clear. The winnowing began more than two months ago, the moment Rick Santorum, his last credible rival for the nomination, dropped out of the race, and speculation has been feverish ever since.

Other possibilities include the Ohio Senator Rob Portman, the former Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty, the rising Republican Congressman Paul Ryan, and New Jersey's bluntly spoken governor, Chris Christie.

But speculation is all it is. The Romney campaign prides itself on discipline and ability to keep a secret, and the candidate told reporters on Tuesday that, apart from him, the only person who knows who is on the list is his trusted aide Beth Myers, his chief of staff when he was governor of Massachusetts, who is handling the vetting.

But there have been some clues to Mr Romney's thinking. The biggest of these is his repeated insistence that his running mate will be someone who is ready and qualified to take over as president if necessary. In other words, Mr Romney will bend over backwards not to repeat the mistake made by John McCain, the last Republican nominee, who selected the flashy but woefully unqualified Sarah Palin.

The choice cast serious doubt on the judgement of Mr McCain (who, had he won in 2008, would at 72 have been the oldest man ever to become president) and almost certainly contributed to the size of his defeat.

Under the constitution, a vice-president's formal duties are few – basically they come down to presiding over the Senate, where he casts the deciding vote in the event of a tie – and many have chafed at the limitations. Famously, John Nance Garner, Franklin Roosevelt's vice-president from 1933 to 1941, described the office as "not worth a bucket of warm piss."

In practice, a vice-president's job and influence (or lack of them) are determined by the president himself. Lyndon Johnson, for instance, was virtually excluded from John Kennedy's inner circle. By contrast, under the inexperienced George W Bush, Dick Cheney ran what amounted to a parallel administration, especially during Mr Bush's first term.

A vice-president's biggest responsibility is the unspoken one: the possibility, far from theoretical, that he might have to step into the top job at a moment's notice. Nine of the country's 44 presidents have been sitting vice-presidents catapulted into the Oval Office by the death or resignation of their boss – most recently Gerald Ford after the fall of Richard Nixon in 1974.

By this yardstick, Mr Rubio, the son of Cuban immigrants, may be found wanting. Despite his undoubted charisma, he has been a US senator for barely 18 months, with just eight years in Florida's state legislature before that. That lack of experience could also rule out both Mr Christie and Bob McDonnell, governor of Virginia, both of whom only took office in 2010.

With Jeb Bush, the former Florida governor, having taken himself out of consideration, the most obvious front-runners are Mr Portman, a senator and former congressman who served as George W Bush's budget director, and Mr Pawlenty, a two-term governor of the swing state Minnesota, who has a popular touch that Mr Romney lacks.

But nothing is certain, neither the identity of Mr Romney's running mate, nor the date of an announcement. Most often, the choice is made on the eve of the convention – this year in late August. But Mr Romney, who is cautious and well organised, may act sooner, perhaps as early as next month.

Vice squad: Those who made a difference, for better or worse

Lyndon Johnson:

The Texan LBJ may have been the last vice-presidential nominee who helped the ticket in terms of electoral votes, shoring up the wobbling Democratic south for John Kennedy in 1960. Ironically, Johnson was among the most ineffectual occupants of the office, and hated the job.

Spiro Agnew:

He brought little to the Republican ticket in 1968. But in 1973 he became only the second vice-president in history to resign, after admitting taking bribes when he was governor of Maryland. Agnew's fate prefigured that of his boss Richard Nixon nine months later.

Sarah Palin:

For a few days, John McCain's choice of Palin, then governor of Alaska, seemed inspired. But her pitiful lack of qualification soon became clear. The notion of Palin sitting the proverbial "heartbeat from the presidency" undoubtedly was a factor in his defeat.

Dick Cheney:

Cheney, from rock-ribbed Republican Wyoming with just three electoral votes, was of little electoral help to George W. Bush in 2000. But he went on to become arguably the most powerful and most divisive vice-president in US history

Al Gore:

The selection of Gore in 1992 was a groundbreaker, as Bill Clinton ignored traditional criteria of generational and geographic balance and picked a young southern moderate like himself, on a "Double Bubba" ticket. Gore was also first "modern" – i.e. more consequential – vice-president.

Dan Quayle:

Astonishment greeted George H.W. Bush's pick of the young Indiana Senator as his running mate in 1988. As vice-president Quayle became a figure of fun (famously even misspelling the word "potato" in a school class.) His gaffes may have marginally contributed to Bush's loss in 1992.

Independent Comment
blog comments powered by Disqus
Top stories
News in pictures
World news in pictures
UK news in pictures
UK news in pictures
More stories
       
Independent
Travel Shop
India and Shimla
14 nights from only £1899pp Find out more
Prague city break
Three nights from £199pp Find out more
4* Soreda hotel break, Malta
Seven nights all-inclusive from £399pp Find out more
Independent Dating
and  

By clicking 'Search' you
are agreeing to our
Terms of Use.

iJobs Job Widget
iJobs General

Primary teachers urgently required!

£22000 - £40000 per annum: Randstad Education Plymouth: Randstad Education are...

Assistant Headteacher

negotiable: Randstad Education Manchester: Assistant Headteacher required urge...

Primary Teacher

Negotiable: Randstad Education Cardiff: Here at Randstad Education Cardiff we ...

Secondary Teacher

Negotiable: Randstad Education Cardiff: Secondary School Teachers & NQTs Requi...

Day In a Page

Watch out Watford: Here comes the secretive Bilderberg Group

Watch out Watford: Here comes the secretive Bilderberg Group

A meeting of global power brokers in a Hertfordshire hotel is exciting conspiracy theorists, but what are they really about?
'The ultimate all-in-one home entertainment system': Microsoft finally unveils its Xbox ONE console

'The ultimate all-in-one home entertainment system'

Microsoft finally unveils its Xbox ONE console
Plenty of Fish dating site founder pulls 'Intimate Encounters' option to ward off sleazy men

Plenty of sleaze

Dating website pulls intimate 'hook-up' section to curb harassment
Inferno author Dan Brown 'honoured' to be invited to join the Freemasons

The Freemasons’ Code

Dan Brown reveals the message that told him door to the lodge is open
Not secure any more: G4S boss heads for exit at last

Not secure any more: G4S boss heads for exit at last

Nick Buckles survived the Olympics débâcle and a £5bn bid fiasco but a profit warning finally triggered his downfall
How to say ‘I’m a sellout’: Tumblr’s David Karp’s message of reassurance to his staff sounded very familiar

How to say ‘I’m a sellout’

Tumblr’s David Karp’s message of reassurance to his staff sounded very familiar
Why clubs are keen to take a stand

Why clubs are keen to take a stand

There's a real desire around the grounds for safe standing. But will the authorities listen?
In the end the fans decided Tony Pulis had made a pig's ear of the job at Stoke City

In the end the fans decided Tony Pulis had made a pig's ear of the job at Stoke City

Disillusion with a siege mentality and negative playing style made change inevitable
James Lawton: The James Hunt I knew is the subject of a new F1 movie

James Lawton: The James Hunt I knew is the subject of a new F1 movie

British driver was fascinating man whose epic duel with Niki Lauda in 1976 was typical of an era of glamour and glory – but also the ever-present threat of death
Stuart Hogg: Ready to climb his own Everest

Stuart Hogg: Ready to climb his own Everest

Lions' cub, 20, joins long line of players from Scottish borders club Hawick given opportunity to make his mark at highest level
Carl Froch handed rare chance of revenge with dream rematch

Steve Bunce on Boxing

Carl Froch handed rare chance of revenge with dream rematch against Mikel Kessler
'There is a battle going on inside us that is never discussed'

Masculinity in crisis?

'There is a battle going on inside us that is never discussed'
Have US shock jocks gone too far?

Have US shock jocks gone too far?

An incendiary remark from Rush Limbaugh may be the beginning of the end for outspoken right-wing US broadcasters
The ‘Beverly Hills’ of Surrey pays more income tax than big cities of the North

The ‘Beverly Hills’ of Surrey

Elmbridge pays more income tax than big cities of the North
Heavenly Bodies

Heavenly Bodies

Michael Landy's artistic marriage made in heaven... and hell