Youth, justice and the American Way: Candidates enter the final stretch

America is about to take perhaps the biggest considered gamble in its history. Unless every poll is wrong, in less than 72 hours Barack Obama will be monarch-elect of the mightiest country on earth. No US president in modern times, probably none in the country's entire history, will have come to power so untested, with so much about him still a mystery.

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The deal, of course, is not quite done. John McCain, no stranger to comebacks, could yet stage another one, albeit not even at the 11th hour, but at five seconds to midnight. Despite the favourable omens, Democrats cannot quite believe this weekend that they will win – that Republicans will not find some way of stealing the prize again: a terrorist scare, ruthless vote suppression (though that seems less likely this time, given that up to a third of the likely electorate will have voted early), some other dirty trick, who knows?

They have nightmares too about a real or imagined "Bradley effect". Whatever voters may have told pollsters in public, is it not possible that in the secrecy of the ballot box they will make Obama a loser because of the colour of his skin?

For why, they ask, is he not further ahead? With an incumbent Republican President breaking all records for unpopularity, with 90 per cent of Americans convinced the country is headed in the wrong direction, with two unpopular wars, with a divided opposition, and an economic crisis for the ages, their man ought surely to be heading for a landslide of LBJ or Reagan proportions. But he's not 15 or 20 points ahead, only five or 10.

The true reason, one suspects, that McCain still has a glimmer of a chance is not Obama's race, or his youth. It is not even that John McCain is a brave and remarkable man who commands vast public respect, however mediocre and disjointed a campaign he has run. It is simply that even after 21 months of non-stop exposure, there is still so little by which to judge Obama.

Of itself, youth is no disqualifier. Four presidents have been younger than Obama when they came to office, and their combined record is not bad. The youngest of them was Theodore Roosevelt, only 42 when he succeeded the assassinated William McKinley, and whom historians now rate among the half-dozen greatest presidents. Ulysses Grant was 46 when he was inaugurated in March 1869. He is generally regarded as a pretty poor one – not because of any huge policy blunders, but because he ran a very corrupt administration.

John F Kennedy, 43 at his inauguration in 1961, is a case of promise tragically cut short – but historians mostly give him an above-average mark. Finally, there's Bill Clinton, who was a year younger than Obama when he became the 42nd president. Bill Clinton is ... well, Bill Clinton. But one suspects history will be fairly kind to him, not least in light of what came afterwards.

Experience, however, is another matter. All four of these "youngsters" had a record by which they could be judged. Grant was the greatest Union general of the Civil War, the man who accepted Lee's surrender at Appomattox. Roosevelt was assistant navy secretary, a hero in the 1898 Spanish-American war, then governor of New York before he was elected McKinley's vice-president. As for JFK, it is often forgotten that he served 14 years in Congress (eight of them as senator, compared to Obama's four) before entering the White House. And as for Clinton, he had been governor of Arkansas for 12 years, and had been talking about becoming president since his days at Yale Law School.

By comparison, Obama's record is wafer thin. Yes, he has produced a couple of revealing and finely written memoirs. He has delivered some wonderful speeches, and compiled a useful (but by no means stellar) record in the Illinois state senate. But he has left barely a legislative trace on Capitol Hill, where he spent just two years as a fully functioning US senator before formally announcing his White House bid in February 2007.

What imprint there has been is conventionally liberal. Obama's profile resembles that of several failed Democratic nominees, such as Michael Dukakis, Walter Mondale and John Kerry: northern, liberal, urban (the community work in Chicago) and academic. (Obama graduated from Harvard Law School and taught constitutional law at the University of Chicago.)

Culturally, he's light years away from the most recent Democratic presidents: Lyndon Johnson, Jimmy Carter and Clinton, two of them governors and all three southerners. And, in common with most US senators, Obama has precious little executive experience. Now, if the polls are right, he is on the verge of becoming CEO of USA Inc, at one of the most troubled moments in its history.

The transition alone will be one of the most fraught ever. A president-elect Obama (or McCain) will have to pick his senior cabinet officials and top aides very quickly. Within 10 days of the election, the victor will attend the summit on the global financial crisis convened here by President Bush. Even before he comes to office, he will be grappling with the interlocking challenges of Iran, the Middle East, Iran, Afghanistan andPakistan, not to mention the $12bn-a-month drain that is Iraq.

The moment he is inaugurated, the new president will have to tackle America's economic mess, set about rebuilding relations with US allies and America's good name, and start delivering on specific campaign promises, all at the same time. Last but not least, if it's President Obama, he must deal with a Congress – where he was only the most junior of members – that is likely to be totally controlled by his own party and itching to enact major spending projects, in health care and the like, irrespective of whether the country can afford it.

You could argue that not since Abraham Lincoln came to power in March 1861, a month before Confederate guns fired the opening salvoes of the Civil War against Fort Sumter in Charleston harbour, has an incoming president faced such challenges. Oddly, however, and reassuringly, Lincoln's career is similar to Obama's. "Honest Abe" was a prairie lawyer and Illinois state legislator (he served four terms, just like Obama), who then spent an unhappy two years as a congressman in Washington. Yet Lincoln overcame America's biggest ever crisis. He is now regarded as perhaps the greatest president of all.

Strip away the soaring rhetoric, and Obama is not a particularly brilliant campaigner. Lincoln wasn't either. But skills on the stump do not equate to skill in governing. A better indicator, perhaps, is how a campaign is organised – particularly a campaign as long as the two-year marathon that ends tomorrow. A campaign may be staffed by geniuses, but ultimately they are run by the candidate. In this department, Obama has been peerless: he and his team have not made a serious mistake. They have shattered every fundraising record, and made ground-breaking use of the internet. Obama's "retail" operation on the ground has outclassed that of every rival.

Then there have been the debates. Republicans complain, with some justice, that the media have been "in the tank" for Obama since day one. But how much do the media matter, anyway? Far more important, in terms of shaping impressions, are the candidates' debates – and never more so than this year.

On the eve of the Iowa caucuses that kicked off the primary season in early January – 10 months ago, but it feels like a lifetime – the economist Larry Lindsey wrote a wise column in the Wall Street Journal in which he pointed out that nothing could prepare a person for the presidency, with its unpredictable demands and its unparalleled pressures. Lindsey, readers may recall, was the first economic adviser to the outgoing President Bush, sacked by the White House in late 2002 when he had the foresight to warn that the looming Iraq war, which the Pentagon insisted would be a self-financing cakewalk, might cost $200bn. (In fact, the bill is now $700bn and counting.) For that reason alone, his views deserve attention.

Voters obviously cannot predict exactly how a given individual will respond to a given situation. But, Lindsey argued, what they could do was "select someone who will (1) know what he or she doesn't know, (2) get up to speed quickly, and (3) avoid making serious mistakes in the meantime".

In the debates, Obama scored highly on all three counts. He kept the oratory on hold. He didn't pretend to solve the economic and every other crisis with a string of 60-second sound bites. But he was fluent and thoughtful on every issue thrown at him; not flashy, but displaying his formidable intellect and his ability to master a topic in short order. Finally, his calm and considered style (this is a man, horrors, who visibly takes a moment to think before answering a question) allayed fears that, if Obama did indeed make it to the Oval Office, he would be rushing to wild judgements in ignorance – or, worse, defiance – of the facts.

Obviously, electing him will be a leap in the dark. That is why is he is five or 10 points ahead, not 20. But so would be electing John McCain – and so, to varying extents, have been the elections of all 43 US presidents (the possible exception being George Washington). There have been pleasant surprises and nasty surprises. In the case of Obama, there's no way of knowing. But grounds for hope exist. The fearful and demoralised USA Inc could be in for a pleasant surprise. And, Lord knows, it needs one.

Campaign week: Race gets tighter in crucial swing states

Sunday Obama addresses 100,000-strong rally in Denver, taunting McCain for admitting he shared a "common philosophy" with Bush. McCain insists on NBC that he is his own man. Polls show Obama widening his lead in swing states.

Monday Both men campaign in swing state of Ohio. Obama delivers first of his "closing arguments" speeches, urging national unity. Democrats' hopes of a filibuster-proof 60 seats in the Senate rise as Ted Stevens of Alaska is convicted of corruption.

Tuesday Reports of tensions between Palin and McCain camps. McCain stumps in Pennsylvania, telling voters the tide is turning, saying, "It's wonderful to fool the pundits".

Wednesday A $4m (£2.5m) Obama half-hour "info-mercial" is watched by 34 million Americans. Obama then holds joint rally with Bill Clinton in all-important Florida. McCain attacks his rival's links with a former PLO official critical of Israel.

Thursday Joe "the Plumber" Wurzelbacher hires a top publicity firm as his agent, and campaigns with Palin. Obama blames drop in US GDP, heralding a recession, on the "failed policies" of Bush and McCain.

Friday New polls put Obama's lead at between 7 and 13 per cent. McCain, pictured right, accuses Obama of being "on the far left" of US politics, while his rival campaigns with Al Gore in Florida, scene of Gore's downfall in 2000.

Yesterday Conservatives get excited about a survey that puts McCain one point ahead, but the candidate is spending most time defending states the Republicans won last time. Obama is also hitting red states, showing his confidence.