How Japan could emerge stronger from this disaster

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The Independent Online

Provided the natural disasters do not turn into nuclear disasters, then the crisis does offer the Japanese authorities an opportunity, albeit for the worst possible reasons, to boost and reform their economy.

First, the reconstruction efforts will boost spending and output and help to break the economic stagnation that has dogged Japan for two decades. Simply restoring the national stock of productive assets will raise gross domestic product (GDP). The destruction will force the hands of families that have hitherto preferred to save their cash in the post office rather than buy a house or a car because they were worried about the future – a classic case of deflationary psychology.

Again, for admittedly the most grim of reasons, the economic impact of this disaster could end up more benign than many might now dare to imagine.

There are plenty of precedents, too – not least in Japan herself after the Second World War and the 1995 Kobe earthquake. In the gruesome calculus of these things, the 2 to 3 per cent loss of GDP now could easily be outweighed by higher future growth.

Second, seasoned observers of the Japanese scene suggest that the crisis will enable the government to actually reduce the country's in-built structural government budget deficit even as the relief programme is being launched.

The credit ratings agency Moody's has said that Japan's economy could absorb the impact of the shock, but warned that it might reach a "tipping point" if the financial markets demand a risk premium on its government debt. That would push up the cost of Japan's borrowing, at a difficult time.

Thus, the argument runs, the amount that Japan spends on, for example, subsiding inefficient farmers and supporting an often bloated state bureaucracy will have to be reduced to pay for reconstruction. An overall emergency package could tackle the worst excesses of the Japanese public sector.

Katsuya Okada, the secretary-general of the ruling Democratic Party of Japan has already indicated that the government would like to do just that; the opposition Liberal Democratic Party has also said it wants to cut government spending.

Japan's deficit is as big, proportionately, as Britain's at 10 per cent of national income. Her national debt, at 200 per cent of GDP, is about four times as large as the UK's. Thus far it has easily been funded by hard-saving Japanese workers and their pension funds, but in the longer term this is unsustainable. Hence the need to couple reconstruction with fixing Japan's wobbly public finances.

Lastly, Japan's crisis may stay the hand of central banks around the world, including the European Central Bank and the Bank of England from raising interest rates in the near future, and thus help protect a tentative global recovery. Added to the continuing turmoil in the Middle East, policymakers may well not wish to add to the lethal mix of uncertainty swirling round the world. They would be wise to wait for calm to return.