Musharraf's woes spark fears of state of emergency in Pakistan

The government of General Pervez Musharraf last night backed away from imposing a state of emergency amid a dramatic flurry of reports and speculation that highlighted the mounting political crisis facing Pakistan's leader.

Hours after President Musharraf finished a meeting with key military and legal advisers, his deputy information minister, Tariq Azim, claimed while such a move remained an option, it was not to be introduced for now. "No such measures are afoot at present," Mr Azim said. "As a responsible government we keep our options open. We recently had a spate of suicide attacks in the North West Frontier, as well some increasing tension on the border with Afghanistan, and some discomfort among Pakistanis after the statements made by US presidential candidates who said American forces may come and operate independently."

Whether General Musharraf ever actually intended to impose a state of emergency is unclear; there has been talk for months that he might pursue such a move as a means to stave off the political problems he faces. But at the very least, the way in which the reports were readily seized upon and the need felt by the US Secretary of State, Condoleezza Rice, to telephone General Musharraf late in the night - presumably to warn him against such a move - underscores the vulnerable position he is in just months away from elections.

What is known is that General Musharraf met yesterday morning with senior members of the country's ruling party, which he dominates. Another government spokesman said the proposals for a state of emergency - under which restrictions upon the media and political opponents would be increased - came from within the party. The spokesman said General Musharraf, who seized power in a 1999 coup, had declined to go along with the proposals and was committed to free elections.

The language was perfectly synchronised with that emerging later in the day from Washington - General Musharraf's powerful backer. At a press conference at the White House, President George Bush said: "My focus in terms of the domestic scene there is that he have a free and fair election, and that's what we've been talking to him about, mand hopeful they will."

Whether General Musharraf declares a state of emergency in the days ahead or not, he still faces huge political challenges as he seeks to secure another term as leader. General Musharraf would like the current national and regional assemblies - dominated by his party - to vote on his presidency.

His political opponents argue that because these assemblies have just weeks to run, elections for their membership should be held first, followed by a vote that would determine his future. Naturally, General Musharraf is determined to avoid such a risky scenario. But he has limited options and he may believe that declaring a state of emergency would provide him with some breathing space.

His popularity has been falling since his decision this year to fire the country's top judge, Iftikhar Chaudhry, allegedly for corruption - but many suspect for political reasons given Mr Chaudhry's investigations into human rights abuses by the government.

Since the Supreme Court's decision last month to reinstall Mr Chaudhry, General Musharraf has been confronted with a newly resurgent judiciary, apparently prepared to stand up to him. Last week it ruled to release Javed Hashmi, a jailed opposition leader loyal to former prime minister Nawaz Sharif on bail. Yesterday the court heard a petition from Mr Sharif and his brother seeking permission to return to Pakistan from exile and challenge for the leadership of the country.

Talat Hussain, head of current affairs at Pakistan's Aaj TV, said: "By considering an emergency, he thought this was one way of warding off a challenge from the opposition or any judicial challenge to his plans to be elected by the current parliament in uniform. He probably also wanted to send a signal to the judiciary that there are options on the table it may not be able to do much about."

Speculation that a state of emergency might be declared began on Wednesday evening. Television news channels in Islamabad reported that plans had been formalised. Commentators also pointed out that General Musharraf had made a last-minute decision not to attend a meeting in Kabul with 600 Pakistani and Afghan tribal leaders, held to try and secure peace inside the two countries.

While General Musharraf faces pressure from the US to meet his end of the deal, which sees millions of dollars pumped into Pakistan by doing more to confront militants, Mr Bush has said the US would not carry out military operations without the general's approval. Comments in the US by the Democratic presidential hopeful Barack Obama have forced both countries to address the issue.

Challenges to the President

Why would General Pervez Musharraf impose a state of emergency now?

The government said the possibility had been considered as a result of ongoing internal security threats, in particular a wave of attacks by extremists carried out against troops since the operation to clear the Red Mosque, or Lal Masjid, last month in which more than 100 people were killed.

It also said recent comments by US politicians about launching unilateral strikes against extremists were a factor. In reality a state of emergency would provide General Musharraf with political breathing space as he seeks to hold on to his presidency ahead of elections scheduled for later this year.

Why is the newly reinstalled Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry a threat to General Musharraf?

While Mr Chaudhry may not hold political ambitions, he represents a defiance of the military leader that has captured the public imagination.

Since the Supreme Court voted to reinstall him last month, General Musharraf has been confronted with a resurgent judiciary which may declare that his attempt to secure the presidency while still wearing his uniform and serving as head of the armed forces is unconstitutional.

Who are General Musharraf's most powerful backers?

Since the aftermath of 9/11 when he decided to support the US's actions against the Taliban and al-Qa'ida, the general has received crucial political and financial support from Washington. Despite speculation that the US was looking to support an "option B" in Pakistan, it appears Washington has concluded there is no viable alternative.

Its proclamations in support of democracy appear less important than supporting a leader it believes will do its bidding. Perhaps even more crucially, General Musharraf has so far retained the support of the Pakistan military. If he were to step down as leader of the armed forces and become a "civilian" it is unclear what impact this would have.

What advantages does General Musharraf have?

Crucially, he holds power and as long as he does he has a certain amount of control over future events. As such he could still forge a power-sharing deal with the former prime minister Benazir Bhutto that would allow him to continue as President.