Mystery deepens over Kim Jong-il's absence

Where is the head of the world's most hermetic state? The mystery deepened today when South Korea's intelligence agency reported that North Korean leader Kim Jong-il was recovering from a brain haemorrhage, even as North Korean officials dismissed the "falsehoods" circulating in the West about his health.

The no-show by the "Dear Leader" at this week's mass rallies marking North Korea's sixtieth anniversary is considered a sign by observers in the Byzantine world of Pyongyang-watching that he may have had a stroke and is seriously ill.

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According to the South Korean spy agency which briefed South Korean MPs, the 66 year old Kim had suffered a cerebral haemorrhage but remains conscious and is "able to control the situation." The National Intelligence Service said that it had obtained intelligence reports showing Kim recently had surgery for an unspecified circulatory problem and his condition had much improved, an agency official said.

But the North Korean spokesman, Song Il-ho, called fresh speculation about Kim's health a "Western conspiracy plot", and noted that Western media "have reported falsehoods before."

"There are no problems," Kim Yong Nam, Pyongyang's No. 2 leader and ceremonial head of state, told Japan's Kyodo News agency.

The high-living Kim, who is believed to suffer from heart problems and diabetes, scoffed at persistent rumours about his health in a meeting with South Korea's president last year, dismissing the journalists who pen them as "fiction writers."

But with little hard information, Kim's absence has "inevitably" fuelled speculation about who will step into his high-heeled shoes, says long-time Pyongyang watcher Andrei Lankov, professor of history at South Korea's Kookmin University. "We just don't know anything about Kim or his family. Even with his eldest son, all we know that he is a fat guy who loves gambling and Mickey Mouse and is probably not that brilliant."

The stakes are huge. The Dear Leader is already three years older than his father, Kim Il-sung, when he announced his successor and many worry that the North's heavily militarised and probably nuclear armed regime may not survive his death. Kim is thought to worry that another hereditary ruler could "invite derision" says The Korea Herald, and is likely to face resistance to his offspring from within the North's military and political establishment.

"No matter who takes over, he won't enjoy the kind of supreme power he or his father enjoyed," argues Lee Shin-wha, a former consultant on North Korean affairs for the Seoul government and now professor of international relations at Korea University. "Even though this is a despotic regime, opposition will happen." Still, the odds are against an heir coming from outside Kim's own large clan, reportedly seven children from four wives and several mistresses.

First son and most likely successor under Korea's Confucian culture is Kim Jong-nam, 37, the product of an extra-marital affair between Kim Senior and actress Song Hye-rim. Little was known about him until he was stopped trying to enter Japan in 2001 with a fake passport, on his way to visit Tokyo Disneyland. Japanese magazines later reported that it had been at least the portly Jong-nam's third secret trip to the resort, using a Chinese alias that meant "fat bear."

Soon after, the man dubbed "Small General" left the country and Hong Kong reporters found him last year living in a luxury apartment in the gambling resort of Macau, reportedly sans bodyguards and banished from the hermit kingdom by his furious father. Many observers point out, however, that Kim Senior also took incognito trips to Cold War enemy Japan in the 1980s to watch magic shows staged by his favorite magician, Hikita Tenko. Jong-nam has since been rehabilitated and works at a key government agency, according to South Korea's largest daily newspaper, The Choson Ilbo.

Schooled in Russia and Switzerland, Jong-nam speaks several languages, including French and English, and is about the right age to take power. But his lavish lifestyle and recklessness has raised eyebrows and embarrassed his father, so second son Kim Jong-chul may now be the front runner.

Born to Kim Senor's third wife Ko Yong-hui, the 27-year-old was raised in a separate mansion to his older brother before being educated in Switzerland. Like his father, No.2 Son is reportedly a fan of Western popular culture, including Eric Clapton and American basketball. He works in the Korean Worker's Party's Department of Agitation and Propaganda and in 2005 attended an official state dinner for Chinese President Hu Jintao, all signs that he is being groomed for power. And in the so-called "Harem-politics" of the North's first family, where Kim's wives and mistresses jockey for privilege and power, he has an added asset: his mother.

"There is a consistent story that Ko Yong-hui was Kim's favorite woman, so this is likely to be important in choosing a successor," says Professor Lee. "He is also reportedly very smart but he is way too young. I don't think he can be leader yet." The same problem applies to third son, Kim Jong-woon, 25, about whom almost nothing is known. That leaves several other family candidates, including Kim's current partner, Kim Ok, a musician who is much younger than the Dear Leader. "She is believed to be smart, charismatic and ambitious so who knows," says Professor Lankov.

In addition to dynastic succession, a leader may emerge from within the military or communist party. The top candidate here is thought to be Jang Song-Taek, Kim's 62-year-old brother-in-law, who holds several key posts at the State Security Department, the People's Security Ministry and the Central Prosecutor's Office.

Could Kim already be dead? The most bizarre theory on the fate of the North's leader comes from Toshimitsu Shigemura, a professor at Tokyo's Waseda University. In his book, "The True Character of Kim Jong-il," Professor Shigemura argues that Kim passed away from diabetes five years ago and has been replaced by a double who has since managed, with the help of Communist party elders, to keep the North's ship of state on course. "The leadership is engaged in a fierce internal power struggle," he writes. "It sounds fantastic, but common sense cannot take the measure of North Korea's uniqueness."