Australian cities could soon see ‘unprecedented’ temperatures of 50C, scientists say

Concerns raised over how elderly will cope

(Daniel Kalisz/Getty Images)

Australian cities could soon experience “unprecedented” temperatures of 50C, even if international climate targets are met, scientists have said.

Summers in Sydney and Melbourne could regularly see sweltering temperatures by 2040, raising concerns for how the elderly will cope and the pressures the weather could pile on energy resources and infrastructure.

Restricting global warming to 1.5C – less than the 2C which was agreed by the international community under the Paris climate deal – could avoid the 50C days, scientists said.

Their findings, which looked at just Victoria and New South Wales states, were published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters.

“The increase in Australian summer temperatures indicates that other major cities should also be prepared for unprecedented future extreme heat,” said lead author, Dr Sophie Lewis, from the Australian National University.

She continued: “Our climate modelling has projected daily temperatures of up to 3.8 degrees Celsius above existing records in Victoria and New South Wales, despite the ambitious Paris efforts to curb warming.

Warming is likely to be incremental, the scientists warned.

“One of the hottest years on record globally - 2015 could be an average year by 2025,” Dr Lewis said.

The highest temperature ever experienced in Sydney was 45.8C in 2013. In 2009 in Melbourne the mercury hit a record high of 46.4C.

Dr Lewis called for immediate work to be done to reduce the chance of extreme seasonal temperatures.

“Urgent action on climate change is critical – the severity of possible future temperature extremes simulated by climate models in this study poses serious challenges for our preparedness for future climate change in Australia,” she said.

The study used new modelling and observation methods to predict how extreme temperatures could become more frequent.

“Previous scientific studies have focused on how current temperature extremes have been impacted by climate change, or on how the frequency of these current extremes will change in the future,” said Dr Andrew King from the University of Melbourne’s Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science.

“This study takes a different approach and examines how the severity of future temperature extremes might change in the future,” he added.