Bosnia Crisis: Russia rolls up for showdown: Impending air strikes over Gorazde have been forced on Clinton and his fellow leaders despite grave political risks

RUSSIA yesterday came out in favour of air strikes against the Bosnian Serbs if they continue to attack Gorazde.

But with the onslaught continuing against the besieged Bosnian town, it seemed that attempts to broker a ceasefire had failed: the resolve of the West and the solidity of its links with Moscow are to be tested to breaking-point.

Andrei Kozyrev, the Russian Foreign Minister, attacked the Bosnian Serbs, whom his country has hitherto supported, in outspoken terms. They had 'issued a criminal challenge to the elementary norms of humane behaviour, to the demands of the United Nations and also of Russia,' he said. Unless they stopped their offensive against Gorazde, in line with the Nato ultimatum agreed late on Friday night, air strikes would be justified.

But on the ground in Gorazde, reports indicated that the Bosnian Serb onslaught continued after the midday deadline set for a ceasefire. UN military observers reported heavy infantry attacks and Gorazde's mayor, in a radio link with Bonn, said hundreds of shells had been landing in the small town. The Bosnian Serbs blamed the Muslims for starting the firefight.

Two hundred Nato aircraft were on standby, and there were reports that aircraft were already flying over the town, apparently in preparation for an attack. Just days after Western officials had indicated that air power was not going to save the day at Gorazde, the chances that this would happen were rising, with all the attendant risks.

Friday's decision in Brussels to use air power to defend all the safe areas in Bosnia, starting with Gorazde, is a recognition that only by doubling the stakes can Western institutions hope to stop the killing and regain their credibility. But there is a series of grave risks involved in this desperate bid: diplomatic, humanitarian, and political dangers that analysts have been warning about since the start of the conflict.

Even though Mr Kozyrev has put Russia behind the West, only days ago a very different and more aggressive line was being peddled in Moscow. Nato diplomats and officials have spoken for months of apparently chaotic decision-making procedures in Russia, of splits between ministries and of contradictory signals. In particular, the defence and foreign ministries have been divided over their approach.

If air strikes happen, they are likely to be on a much wider scale than the close air-support missions of two weeks ago, and are likely to engage not just heavy weapons but also other 'military targets', as specified in the Nato ultimatum. That brings with it the risk of 'collateral damage' - the ugly term for civilian deaths, on either side. The spectre of 'friendly fire' also looms large, after disasters in the Gulf war and northern Iraq two weeks ago. Britain and other troop-providing states have insisted that there is close liaison with Lt- Gen Sir Michael Rose and Unprofor in Bosnia. The new strategy is more coherent than the previous line, since it embraces all safe areas, protects civilian lives and has a more streamlined command system.

'A piecemeal approach doesn't do the job, half-heartedness doesn't pay off,' said the Nato secretary-general, Manfred Worner, on Friday. 'You have to use more decisive means and we will not hesitate to use them.'

But militarily, the use of air power alone has limitations. It cannot seize ground, and there is still a question-mark over the extra UN forces required to implement the UN and Nato decisions. The US is still insisting it will not send ground troops, one of the few immutable positions in the conflict. 'There has categorically been no discussion in which I have been involved, or which I have encouraged or approved, involving the introduction of American ground forces into Bosnia,' Bill Clinton said on Friday night.

Politically, each head of government involved knows that the operation has a serious downside if it collapses, if civilian lives are lost, or if there is a military disaster.

President Clinton has sought to put foreign policy issues on the back-burner, but so far his administration has been dogged by unsatisfactory or botched involvements: another would cost him dear. John Major would be seriously damaged if the decision to launch air strikes alienated backbench opinion. And Boris Yeltsin has been at pains to prevent his flank from being turned by the nationalists in parliament.

Why has the West decided now that these risks are worth taking? The gamble reflects positive and negative factors. On the assets side, there is a chance that, with Russia so angry at Bosnian Serb defiance, with Serbia itself fearing the consequences of further conflict, and with the war moving into its endgame, military involvement now could tip the balance.

On the debit side is the massive blow struck to Nato and the UN by the attacks on Gorazde, at home and abroad, especially in the Muslim world. US allies are intent on seeing more decisive action. 'The confidence in Nato and its esteem is above everything else,' said Hikmet Cetin, Turkey's Foreign Minister, yesterday.

And the West's enemies see an open goal, as demonstrated by Iranian student attacks yesterday on UN offices in Tehran. The US initiative to threaten much wider use of force is an attempt to redress that. To back down now would have been highly damaging.

Britain, perhaps the most sceptical of the Western powers about the use of force, has gone along with the plans because a split in Western institutions, especially a transatlantic rift, could do more damage than anything the Soviet Union ever achieved in 40 years of trying to divide the Alliance.

On Monday, Douglas Hurd was adamant that further escalation would do no good, saying of military action: 'We've seen in the last few days the limitations to that.' Within five days, the line had changed.

(Photograph omitted)

News
Jacqueline Bisset has claimed that young women today are obsessed with being 'hot', rather than 'charming', 'romantic' or 'beautiful'
people
Arts and Entertainment
Lena Dunham
booksLena Dunham's memoirs - written at the age of 28 - are honest to the point of making you squirm
Arts and Entertainment
A bit rich: Maggie Smith in Downton Abbey
tvDownton Abbey review: It's six months since we last caught up with the Crawley clan
Sport
Frank Lampard and his non-celebration
premier leagueManchester City vs Chelsea match report from the Etihad Stadium
PROMOTED VIDEO
Have you tried new the Independent Digital Edition apps?
News
ebooksAn unforgettable anthology of contemporary reportage
News
people
Life and Style
A new app has been launched that enables people to have a cuddle from a stranger
techNew app offers 'PG alternative' to dating services like Tinder
Sport
Greg Dyke insists he will not resign as Football Association chairman after receiving a watch worth more than £16,000 but has called for an end to the culture of gifts being given to football officials
football
Arts and Entertainment
Jake Quickenden sings his heart out in his second audition
tvX Factor: How did the Jakes - and Charlie Martinez - fare?
Sport
premier league
Arts and Entertainment
'New Tricks' star Dennis Waterman is departing from the show after he completes filming on two more episodes
tvOnly remaining original cast-member to leave crime series
Sport
Mario Balotelli celebrates his first Liverpool goal
premier leagueLiverpool striker expressed his opinion about the 5-3 thriller with Leicester - then this happened
News
Britain's shadow chancellor Ed Balls (L) challenges reporter Rob Merrick for the ball during the Labour Party versus the media soccer match,
peopleReporter left bleeding after tackle from shadow Chancellor in annual political football match
Arts and Entertainment
Female fans want more explicit male sex in Game of Thrones, George R R Martin says
tvSpoiler warning: Star of George RR Martin's hit series says viewers have 'not seen the last' of him/her
News
i100
News
i100
Sport
Plenty to ponder: Amir Khan has had repeated problems with US immigration because of his Muslim faith and now American television may shun him
boxing
Latest stories from i100
Have you tried new the Independent Digital Edition apps?
Independent Dating
and  

By clicking 'Search' you
are agreeing to our
Terms of Use.

iJobs Job Widget
iJobs General

IT Support Technician (2nd Line / Server Support) - Bedford

£24000 - £26000 per annum + Benefits: Ashdown Group: 2nd line IT Support Techn...

Teacher

£100 - £130 per day: Randstad Education Chelmsford: Would you like to have a b...

Year 3 Teacher

£100 - £130 per day: Randstad Education Chelmsford: KS2 TeacherWould you like ...

Science Teacher

£100 - £140 per day: Randstad Education Preston: Are you a qualified science t...

Day In a Page

A roller-coaster tale from the 'voice of a generation'

Not That Kind of Girl:

A roller-coaster tale from 'voice of a generation' Lena Dunham
London is not bedlam or a cradle of vice. In fact it, as much as anywhere, deserves independence

London is not bedlam or a cradle of vice

In fact it, as much as anywhere, deserves independence
Vivienne Westwood 'didn’t want' relationship with Malcolm McLaren

Vivienne Westwood 'didn’t want' relationship with McLaren

Designer 'felt pressured' into going out with Sex Pistols manager
Jourdan Dunn: Model mother

Model mother

Jordan Dunn became one of the best-paid models in the world
Apple still coolest brand – despite U2 PR disaster

Apple still the coolest brand

Despite PR disaster of free U2 album
Scottish referendum: The Yes vote was the love that dared speak its name, but it was not to be

Despite the result, this is the end of the status quo

Boyd Tonkin on the fall-out from the Scottish referendum
Manolo Blahnik: The high priest of heels talks flats, Englishness, and why he loves Mary Beard

Manolo Blahnik: Flats, Englishness, and Mary Beard

The shoe designer who has been dubbed 'the patron saint of the stiletto'
The Beatles biographer reveals exclusive original manuscripts of some of the best pop songs ever written

Scrambled eggs and LSD

Behind The Beatles' lyrics - thanks to Hunter Davis's original manuscript copies
'Normcore' fashion: Blending in is the new standing out in latest catwalk non-trend

'Normcore': Blending in is the new standing out

Just when fashion was in grave danger of running out of trends, it only went and invented the non-trend. Rebecca Gonsalves investigates
Dance’s new leading ladies fight back: How female vocalists are now writing their own hits

New leading ladies of dance fight back

How female vocalists are now writing their own hits
Mystery of the Ground Zero wedding photo

A shot in the dark

Mystery of the wedding photo from Ground Zero
His life, the universe and everything

His life, the universe and everything

New biography sheds light on comic genius of Douglas Adams
Save us from small screen superheroes

Save us from small screen superheroes

Shows like Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D are little more than marketing tools
Reach for the skies

Reach for the skies

From pools to football pitches, rooftop living is looking up
These are the 12 best hotel spas in the UK

12 best hotel spas in the UK

Some hotels go all out on facilities; others stand out for the sheer quality of treatments