Blair seeks to bring on board 'crucial' French

Jacques needs Tony and Tony needs Jacques. They may not like it – and they may not like each other – but the British Prime Minister and the French President have every reason to narrow their differences over Iraq, America, Europe and the coming war when they meet on the French coast tomorrow.

Whether or not they can is another question.

The agreement wrung by Mr Blair from President George Bush at the weekend – that the United Nations security council should be consulted a second time and that war in Iraq can wait until mid-March – was crucial. It gives France a chance to readjust its position, if it wants to do so.

That the French nuclear-powered aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle will set sail for the eastern Mediterranean tomorrow, as Mr Blair and M. Chirac meet in Le Touquet, might be a sign that France, even now, is hedging its bets.

British ministers say in private they are convinced that France can still be persuaded to join the coalition for war. French officials say in public that "nothing is excluded". In private, they say a substantial shift in the French attitude is most unlikely.

France is in a strong position – stronger than the American hawks, and their carrier-pigeons in the British press, like to admit.

Paris holds the key to a second UN resolution authorising war, which even the White House now admits would be preferable. French agreement, and participation, would enormously strengthen Mr Blair's domestic political cover.

The pro-war declaration by eight European countries last week helped Mr Blair and embarrassed M. Chirac, but it was far from a killer blow. How many divisions – diplomatic or military – have the Danes, Poles, Spanish and Italians? Yet France is also in a weak position – weaker than Paris likes to admit in public.

It now finds itself bracketed with Germany as a country unwilling to approve a military adventure against Iraq in almost any circumstances.

This may be a popular position in France and elsewhere. It might be a morally defensible position. But it is not where President Chirac intended to be a month ago.

France has made a couple of diplomatic blunders in recent weeks, including the unnecessarily harsh condemnation of the United States by Dominique de Villepin, its Foreign Minister, at a UN press conference on 20 January. This undermined what had previously been a masterly exercise in constructive ambiguity.

The French government is convinced that its point of view – "no war now; let the UN inspectors do their work" – is the morally correct one.

Its position is backed overwhelmingly by public and political opinion in France, but also by the weight of public opinion in Britain, in all the other European countries and even in America.

But, from a French point of view, the argument is no longer just about Iraq or morality. It is about preserving a veneer of European unity. It is about the primacy of the UN in world affairs – not least because France's permanent membership of the security council allows Paris to punch above its weight diplomatically.

Vetoing, or even voting against a second Iraq resolution in the Security Council would give France a one-off adrenalin rush of self-righteous celebrity. But such a move would be a diplo-nuclear option that could be used only once.

The war would go ahead and America would ignore the Security Council for ever more. France's claim to a special importance in world affairs would become worthless, as would, ironically, Britain's.

These considerations are what drove the French, and the British, when they shaped the first UN resolution – 1441 – in the autumn. They hoped to moderate and delay American action against Iraq, to establish the primacy of the UN and to give President Saddam a chance to see sense.

It was predictable that this policy would come apart in time. President Saddam has played his usual games. America and Britain have annoyed France by pre-empting the UN inspectors' work and sending huge military forces to the Gulf.

With M. de Villepin's ill-judged comments on 20 January and President Chirac's joint declaration with Chancellor Gerhard Schröder the following week, France, in effect, abandoned its ambiguous stance and moved into the anti-war camp. The French approach has always been to avoid a choice between President Bush and President Saddam. It now finds itself trapped in precisely that position.