Brussels has to face future without a clear path to enlargement

A small European country rejects a big EU treaty, throwing Europe's diplomats and politicians in turmoil.

It happened in 1992 when Denmark played the wild card, throwing out the Maastricht Treaty, and yesterday Ireland repeated the trick with a second humiliation for Brussels.

At stake is Europe's enlargement process to the east and in prospect is much creative work to rescue the process leading to the admission of up to 12 new member states.

In the chancelleries of Europe there was a mixture of alarm, surprise and consternation at the result. One senior diplomat questioned on the eve of the poll confessed: "We have been working on the assumption that it will be a 'yes'. People only tend to confront such problems when they arise."

That moment has now come. The Nice Treaty opens the way to enlargement by setting in place the minimum reforms to the EU's creaking machinery needed to allow new countries in. All EU countries must ratify it for the treaty to come into force.

The EU is supposed to be ready to admit new members by the beginning of 2003, making agreement by the end of next year necessary on paper. In fact, no new members are likely to join until 2004, giving the EU time to get its house in order.

The question is how Ireland now escapes the situation in which it find itself and the best example is the Danish case. After Denmark's "no" to Maastricht on 2 June 1992 it won four opt-outs and put the issue back to the voters in a second poll, on 18 May 1993, when Maastricht was finally passed. The circumstances were, however, very different because the vote overturned government policy on a turn-out of about 80 per cent. The Danes were able to secure legally binding opt-outs in four areas: defence, monetary union, any moves towards EU citizenship and changes to justice and homes affairs policy.

Last night, Commission officials suggested a similar arrangement, with "concessions" which allow the Irish government to go back to the voters. One area might be a guarantee of neutrality, another a declaration that the Nice Treaty and the Charter of Fundamental Rights has no impact on national abortion laws.