Gul pledges to preserve secular state as president

Turkey's political crisis has entered a new and probably decisive phase with the decision of Abdullah Gul, a politician from an Islamist background whose wife wears a headscarf, to have a second shot at becoming the country's president.

An ally of Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan, who also emerged from Islam-based politics, the affable and charismatic Mr Gul was prevented from reaching his goal in April after secularist MPs stayed away from parliament to prevent a quorum - set at a level higher than in previous elections - being formed. The coup de grâce came when the military made a midnight internet posting making its disapproval of Mr Gul clear.

The warning was clear: as happened 10 years ago, when a government in which Mr Gul was a minister was shoved aside by the army, the military was again preparing to act out its familiar role as watchdog of the secular republic.

But now Mr Erdogan, Mr Gul and their Justice and Development party (AKP) seem to have outsmarted them. In a snap general election last month, AKP won a landslide victory, raising their share of the vote from 34 to 57 per cent, enabling them to form the first single-party Turkish government in decades. With new allies in parliament they will have no trouble getting a quorum for the presidential vote. Mr Gul is expected to gain an easy victory in the third round of voting on 28 August, when a simple majority is enough to win.

Turkey, and its fiercely conservative soldiers, will then have to try to get used to the sight of a head of state taking the salute of the army's generals with his headscarf-adorned wife Hayrunisa by his side. As a symbol of religious affiliation, headscarves have always been taboo at military clubs and ceremonies.

At a press conference yesterday, Mr Gul tried to reassure the world that his secular intentions are good. "Protecting secularism is one of my basic principles," he said. "No one should worry about this. I will embrace all my people."

But the main opposition party, the secular Republican People's Party (CHP), has taken Mr Gul's renewed candidacy badly. Onur Oymen, a CHP MP, said "This name suggests not reconciliation but obstinate insistence. We find this wrong... Their insistence on Gul's nomination, after the crisis it caused, shows how determined they are to convert the modern Turkish state into a religion-based administration."

Another CHP MP, Deniz Baykal, said: "With Gul as president, Turkey would be a very different place in five to 10 years' time. Turkey would become a country in which the political balances were changing very fast, in which the Middle East identity would become more pronounced." But a veteran CHP leader who now sits in parliament for the AKP, Haluk Ozdalga, said: "The AKP stands for democracy in Turkey, for expanding liberty and basic freedoms, for opening Turkey up to the global economy, for a strong desire for social equality."

Mr Erdogan's years as prime minister seem to have reassured the mass of Turks - most of whom do not favour an Islamist-tinged government - that he and his party can be trusted to deliver prosperity, freedom, and perhaps membership of the EU. The party's landslide victory was a popular warning to the military to back off.

Hugh Pope, senior analyst on Turkey with the International Crisis Group, commented: "Gul is going to have his work cut out persuading people that he does not have an Islamist agenda. The headscarf is such a taboo, it's a problem for the system. But we had the same problem five years ago when Erdogan, whose wife also wears a headscarf, became prime minister. People got used to it."

Could the army once again try to thwart Mr Gul? Mr Pope doubts it. "It's very hard to see that the military can sustain its objections. The army will respect their broad understanding of what is legal and keep the republic on its current track. But Gul will have to be very careful: they will be watching him, ready to leap on any mistake. Potentially we are on the edge of a new wave of reform - but he is going to need the EU's help."